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Lydia26
2022-06-27

SURE....

300亿美元，大涨催化剂出现！标普将破4000点？

投资者应做好准备，迎接2022年下半年股市的强劲回报。

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For instance, near the end of the first quarter, the market was down ~10%, and experienced a significant ~7% rally in the last week going into quarter-end. On the most recent monthly rebalance, near the end of May, the market was down 10%, and experienced a significant rally of ~7% going into month end.Let’s look at the current rebalance setup. Broad equities are down 21% for the year (9% vs bonds), 16% for the quarter (11% vs bonds), and 9% for the month (7% vs bonds).Marko Kolanovic 讲到，再平衡并不是唯一的驱动因素。与此同时，债券将受到再平衡带来的适度下行压力，收益率的上升可能会进一步导致投资者转向周期性股票(远离防御型股票)。或者这可能会导致又一轮广泛的抛售。另外Marko Kolanovic 认为今年下半年美国通胀率有望减半，美国经济将避免衰退，股市将强劲反弹。但所有这些预测都有一个前提，就是俄.乌实现停火。只有俄.乌停火，才有可能导致通胀率如此大幅的下跌.当前包括俄罗斯在内的许多国家已经充分意识到冲突的经济成本，同时在供应链中断和疫情限制推动通胀创下40年新高后，投资者和消费者都迫切希望通胀下降。Kolanovic认为下半年俄乌冲突将停火。今年5月，摩根大通就估计到6月底将有2,500亿美元资金流入股市，现金配置的增加、大量做空行为以及市场处于“超卖状态”，可能进一步支撑股市上行，从而有望使美国基准股指进一步偏离熊市区域。养老金买入股票意味着养老金卖出债券，德意志银行固定收益分析师Steve Zeng在一份报告中预测了这一点。他通过DB的静态权重模型估计，在标普500指数下跌19%、总债券指数仅“下滑”6%的情况下，本季度公共和私人养老金将卖出850亿美元的固定收益。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ae048c11f8e1e3176c9044a0b02094\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>另外Steve Zeng指出养老金的再平衡可能会进一步削弱长端利率，而长端利率已经被高企的通胀和鹰派的美联储所持续打击，因此5年期/30年期美债收益率曲线短期陡峭是有战术性意义的，特别是如果人们认为未来两周的数据可能会偏软。此外，高盛交易员Matt Fleury同样表示了&#34;战术性&#34;看涨，他表示美股超卖，从当前到7月初美股或将反弹，不过他并没有改变其长期看跌的观点。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79f4342756a5361b8b75557d56251ff8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>下面我们摘录了他在笔记中强调的一些关键图表：1.标普500指数52周高点以及低点：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b0d85813ccb582f01cfe4ebe85fea2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. 带有9d RSI 的SPX公司有345超卖：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a53f576f14f5d2b6bf892cf0c545f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"91\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>如果下周中期RSI保持在14d，结果会是这样的：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ebd69e18e7f5ce351792326bc0d51e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3. 我们现在已经消化了收益大幅下调的预期:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e7c9ed1622449421bc96b4bacca556b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4. SPX500指数中超过50日移动均线的股票比例:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88e285f7241c070dc95e01afa5172094\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>5. 股价跌至52周低点的股票比例:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bcb7407b7244fecc223b00aed79258f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>6. 对FAAMG看涨call的出价已经蒸发<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a965ec258ffd68684911bfe59ee7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>至于这波“死猫式反弹”将如何延续，Hunter表示：本周五可能触发的周线时间框架上的潜在看涨动能信号将增强夏季早期几周的上行倾向。我们认为，在这段时间内，这一举措将向4100附近的关键阻力位延伸......</body></html>","source":"lsy1625014679106","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n300亿美元，大涨催化剂出现！标普将破4000点？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-26 17:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/idXY5CKE0-EwK7L5_JNUwg>美股投资网</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n美国周四公布的6月制造业PMI初值录得52.4，刷新23个月低位，远低于市场预期的56和5月的57。这一数据的出炉无疑给美联储加息泼了一盆冷水，另市场对加息预期显著降温，美股周五大幅收高，三大股指均上涨5%以上。另外值得注意的是美股月末另一个潜在的大涨催化剂已经出现：根据高盛交易部门的估计，考虑到这个月和这个季度股票和债券的走势，本月和本季度或将有约300亿美元的美股资产将迎来美国养老金再平衡的...\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/idXY5CKE0-EwK7L5_JNUwg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/idXY5CKE0-EwK7L5_JNUwg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195689289","content_text":"美国周四公布的6月制造业PMI初值录得52.4，刷新23个月低位，远低于市场预期的56和5月的57。这一数据的出炉无疑给美联储加息泼了一盆冷水，另市场对加息预期显著降温，美股周五大幅收高，三大股指均上涨5%以上。另外值得注意的是美股月末另一个潜在的大涨催化剂已经出现：根据高盛交易部门的估计，考虑到这个月和这个季度股票和债券的走势，本月和本季度或将有约300亿美元的美股资产将迎来美国养老金再平衡的资金净流入。华尔街死多头，摩根大通的首席策略师Marko Kolanovic在一份报告中指出，美国经济将“软着陆”，投资者应做好准备，迎接2022年下半年股市的强劲回报。并在与摩根大通分析师Bram Kaplan共同撰写的笔记中称：月末和季末的（养老金）再平衡可能推动股票上涨7%，在这个过程中将推动标普指数重返并远远超过4000点。以下摘录来自该报告:This year the impact of rebalances have been significant due to large market moves and low liquidity. For instance, near the end of the first quarter, the market was down ~10%, and experienced a significant ~7% rally in the last week going into quarter-end. On the most recent monthly rebalance, near the end of May, the market was down 10%, and experienced a significant rally of ~7% going into month end.Let’s look at the current rebalance setup. Broad equities are down 21% for the year (9% vs bonds), 16% for the quarter (11% vs bonds), and 9% for the month (7% vs bonds).Marko Kolanovic 讲到，再平衡并不是唯一的驱动因素。与此同时，债券将受到再平衡带来的适度下行压力，收益率的上升可能会进一步导致投资者转向周期性股票(远离防御型股票)。或者这可能会导致又一轮广泛的抛售。另外Marko Kolanovic 认为今年下半年美国通胀率有望减半，美国经济将避免衰退，股市将强劲反弹。但所有这些预测都有一个前提，就是俄.乌实现停火。只有俄.乌停火，才有可能导致通胀率如此大幅的下跌.当前包括俄罗斯在内的许多国家已经充分意识到冲突的经济成本，同时在供应链中断和疫情限制推动通胀创下40年新高后，投资者和消费者都迫切希望通胀下降。Kolanovic认为下半年俄乌冲突将停火。今年5月，摩根大通就估计到6月底将有2,500亿美元资金流入股市，现金配置的增加、大量做空行为以及市场处于“超卖状态”，可能进一步支撑股市上行，从而有望使美国基准股指进一步偏离熊市区域。养老金买入股票意味着养老金卖出债券，德意志银行固定收益分析师Steve Zeng在一份报告中预测了这一点。他通过DB的静态权重模型估计，在标普500指数下跌19%、总债券指数仅“下滑”6%的情况下，本季度公共和私人养老金将卖出850亿美元的固定收益。另外Steve Zeng指出养老金的再平衡可能会进一步削弱长端利率，而长端利率已经被高企的通胀和鹰派的美联储所持续打击，因此5年期/30年期美债收益率曲线短期陡峭是有战术性意义的，特别是如果人们认为未来两周的数据可能会偏软。此外，高盛交易员Matt Fleury同样表示了\"战术性\"看涨，他表示美股超卖，从当前到7月初美股或将反弹，不过他并没有改变其长期看跌的观点。下面我们摘录了他在笔记中强调的一些关键图表：1.标普500指数52周高点以及低点：2. 带有9d RSI 的SPX公司有345超卖：如果下周中期RSI保持在14d，结果会是这样的：3. 我们现在已经消化了收益大幅下调的预期:4. SPX500指数中超过50日移动均线的股票比例:5. 股价跌至52周低点的股票比例:6. 对FAAMG看涨call的出价已经蒸发至于这波“死猫式反弹”将如何延续，Hunter表示：本周五可能触发的周线时间框架上的潜在看涨动能信号将增强夏季早期几周的上行倾向。我们认为，在这段时间内，这一举措将向4100附近的关键阻力位延伸......","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}