To The Moon

Halfway through 2022, U.S. stocks have fallen by almost one-third. The typical Nasdaq index, for example, was around 16,000 at the beginning of the year, and is now 10,800, a drop of 32.5%. The decline is not very big, but the personal trend is terrible. There are countless stocks that have been cut in half, and only a few heavyweight stocks are still relatively strong, but typical ones, such as Nvidia, have fallen by about 45%. Falling to this position, have you changed the bottom?

This article is only a record of personal investment thinking, does not constitute any investment advice, the pattern is different, the position is different, for reference only

Before, I made a list of the top ten stocks in the U.S. stock market and named it big. Today, I made a list of these stocks in terms of their year-to-date gains and losses. The first decliner, fb, fell by 51.32%. What I didn't expect was that Ranked second was Nvidia, which fell by about 46%, followed by Tesla, Amazon, etc. The smallest decline was Berkshire, and the decline in Visa was also small, which was on a par with Berkshire, Apple, Google and TSMC's decline was close.

The picture below is the weekly chart of the Nasdaq index this year. After the Nasdaq fell below the middle of the Bollinger Band in the first week of the year, it did not stand on this position effectively after that. There were breakthroughs in the middle, but they all went down in the end. .

Last week, U.S. stocks gapped and accelerated their decline, breaking away from the previous platform of close to 5 weeks of wide fluctuations. The oscillating range, the bottom before falling below is the support, and after the falling, the bottom of the range is the pressure level.

Recently, many people have been buying dips, including Dan Bin, who we are familiar with. Recently, we have been criticized for the continuous decline of the net value of U.S. stocks. In fact, many people are now struggling. Take Tesla as an example. After a short drop to around $620, I regretted that I didn’t buy the dip, and then rebounded to more than $700, all kinds of uncomfortable, and now it has fallen back, do you dare to buy the dip? From the perspective of some declines, the sudden decline in the first wave is often more prone to violent rebound, which will lead to many people clamoring to hunt for the bottom in the second decline. But think about it from another angle, if everyone knows that dips can make money, then why do they still sell? If everyone knows how to make money, why don’t everyone rush to buy. ge

To directly say a point of view, it is not a good time to buy the bottom. It’s not a good habit to buy dips, especially because the current environment is extremely bad, but it is precisely because of the bad environment that the current stock price is cheap, but I am pessimistic and always feel that there will be lower prices in the future. The layout is also possible, but be prepared for another 30%-50% drop in this position.

The Fed's interest rate hikes have been accelerating from the previous calmness to the present, and the pace of interest rate hikes has continued to accelerate. The latest rate hike was 75 points. Judging from the current information, there is no sign of easing inflation, and even further intensification. sign. From Brother Leopard's point of view, addressing inflation is the primary goal at present, and protecting the stock market is not the first priority. Therefore, it is very necessary to keep an eye on the cpi data behind, which will directly affect the rhythm of interest rate hikes in the later period.

The increase in interest rates leads to a large outflow of funds and the continuous tightening of market liquidity. Eventually, there will be a decline caused by insufficient liquidity, and such a decline is the most terrifying, comparable to the decline caused by the deterioration of fundamentals. If you don't have a deep understanding of the decline caused by the liquidity crisis, you can look at the decline in Hong Kong stocks in March this year, and the continuous meltdown of US stocks during the epidemic in March 2020. Although there has not been a liquidity crisis yet, a reduction in liquidity is inevitable in order to solve inflation and continue to raise interest rates and begin to shrink the balance sheet.

On the other hand, the continuous decline will cause many funds to choose to wait and see, and the funds in the market can not stand the continuous decline and start to cut meat and run away. Even the continuous decline will lead to the problem of liquidation of some leveraged funds. These are all linked together. Last year, the liquidation of the yellow bill was an important fuse for the plummet of Chinese stocks. At present, the U.S. stock market continues to fall, and I have not heard that a large fund has exploded because of this, but if such a decline continues, such a thing is not far away.

Stock price = eps*pe. The most affected by the current decline is pe. For some high-quality companies, the change of pe is not the deterioration of the fundamentals, but the gradual deterioration of the external environment.

If you really want to hunt for the bottom, technology stocks may not be the best choice. Because of the shrinking liquidity, the impact on the valuation of individual stocks is the greatest. For example, Nvidia, its fundamentals have not changed significantly in the past six months, but the stock price is close to halving. , This is a typical killing valuation. If the market continues to weaken in the next six months, it is also expected that the valuation will fall by half.

For those who like to play the Nasdaq, many people like to play leveraged products such as tqqq and sqqq, which can amplify fluctuations and obtain higher returns, but for those who want to buy long-term dips, the future returns of holding tqqq may be very high , but when it falls, the speed of the decline will be very fast, so it must be considered in advance. Long leverage is a way to destroy wealth when it falls.

In addition to tqqq and sqqq, some strategic products in Hong Kong stocks can also be paid attention to, but only 2 times, such as $FL Ernan Nasdaq - more than twice hk07266$ h and $FI Ernan Nasdaq - twice empty hk07568$, these two products can be Trading during the day is better than the Nasdaq ETF of A-shares. After all, you can double the leverage. For those who don’t like to stay up late, these two products can also be paid attention to, but the trend in the daytime follows the Nasdaq futures more. In addition, as the inflation problem continues to ferment, the United States may relax its restrictions on Russia, and the prices of commodities such as bulk commodities may begin to fall. At present, crude oil has also fallen. For those who want to short, you can pay attention to $FI South Crude oil - double short hk07345$, this can short crude oil, you can participate when the market opens during the day, when crude oil fluctuates greatly, this is a good choice. $Tesla TSLA$ $Nvidia