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劉洧綸
2022-06-14

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How tight are the markets? Someone shouted the Fed's rate hike 100 basis points

继巴克莱和Jefferies预计美联储在本周三加息75个基点引起轰动后，渣打银行语出惊人：虽然预计美联储6月会议上仍将加息50个基点，但指出并不排除加息 75个基点甚至100个基点。

How tight are the markets? Someone shouted the Fed's rate hike 100 basis points

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Someone shouted the Fed's rate hike 100 basis points","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243662491","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"继巴克莱和Jefferies预计美联储在本周三加息75个基点引起轰动后，渣打银行语出惊人：虽然预计美联储6月会议上仍将加息50个基点，但指出并不排除加息 75个基点甚至100个基点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Last Friday, the U.S. CPI rose 8.6% year-on-year in May, setting a new 40-year high again, making inflation peak bankrupt. This has allowed the market to re-expect and price the pace of the Fed's rate hike. After Barclays and Jefferies expected the Fed to cause a sensation with a 75 basis point rate hike on Wednesday, Steven Englander, head of global foreign exchange research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, was even more surprising: Although his team expects the Fed to still be at its June meeting rate hike will be 50 basis points, but he noted that 75 basis points or even 100 basis points in rate hike will not be ruled out.</p><p><b>The reason why Standard Chartered Bank gave a 75 basis point or even 100 basis point rate hike is that neither inflation nor the U.S. economy has sent a clear enough slowdown signal to prevent the Fed from rate hike at the next few meetings. 50 basis points or more.</b></p><p><b>However, Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that the Fed doesn't like to surprise the market, and the shocking decline in U.S. consumer confidence suggests that a recession is imminent, so the June rate hike of 50 basis points remains their benchmark forecast.</b></p><p>According to Standard Chartered's latest forecast, it expects the Federal Reserve's rate hike of 50 basis points in July (previously expected to be 25 basis points); September rate hike 50 basis points (previously expected to be zero); It was originally expected that the rate hike in December 2022 would be 25 basis points, but now it is believed that this rate hike will be advanced to November; Rate hike was originally expected to be 25 basis points in the second quarter of 2023, but now it is believed that there will be no rate hike. With these revisions, Standard Chartered expects the Fed's ultimate rate hike point to be 2.75%, compared with its previous forecast of 2.25%.</p><p>Looking at Monday's market expectations, the market expects a 44% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike this Wednesday, while it expects more than 7 rate hike on a 25 basis point basis by September, that is, In the next three months, the market expects at least one 75 basis point rate hike.</p><p>What does this mean for markets this week? Englander pointed out that with futures markets priced at about 60 basis points, the first reaction to rate hike of 50 basis points this week will be a weaker dollar and a rise in bond markets, but whether this situation continues will depend on subsequent rate hike messages. Currently, investors are long dollars and short bonds, so there are certain problems in the short term; However, if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sticks to his hawkish stance, investors may quickly reverse the short-term trend.</p><p>Conversely, if the Fed rate hike is 75 basis points this Wednesday, while hinting at a subsequent rate hike pace that will be reduced to 25 basis points, then 75 basis points on rate hike will be meaningless. Therefore, Standard Chartered believes that rate hike's 75 basis points seems likely to be accompanied by a hawkish stance, pointing out that rate hike's 50 basis points or more at subsequent meetings. For the possible scenario of 100 basis points, this may come from the Fed's belief that a \"Volcker moment\" is needed, but Fed officials are not expected to see themselves as far as this, so it is not expected that such aggressive moves are necessary.</p><p>Standard Chartered pointed out,<b>Another important reason why the Fed is unlikely to rate hike 75 basis points or more on Wednesday is the need for quantitative tightening (QT).</b>The Fed will be cautious in indicating a change in the pace of quantitative tightening. The Fed seems to have a strong underlying will to avoid two tightening tracks (rate hike + QT), so it is likely to send a message of stability.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How tight are the markets? 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Someone shouted the Fed's rate hike 100 basis points\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-14 08:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Last Friday, the U.S. CPI rose 8.6% year-on-year in May, setting a new 40-year high again, making inflation peak bankrupt. This has allowed the market to re-expect and price the pace of the Fed's rate hike. After Barclays and Jefferies expected the Fed to cause a sensation with a 75 basis point rate hike on Wednesday, Steven Englander, head of global foreign exchange research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, was even more surprising: Although his team expects the Fed to still be at its June meeting rate hike will be 50 basis points, but he noted that 75 basis points or even 100 basis points in rate hike will not be ruled out.</p><p><b>The reason why Standard Chartered Bank gave a 75 basis point or even 100 basis point rate hike is that neither inflation nor the U.S. economy has sent a clear enough slowdown signal to prevent the Fed from rate hike at the next few meetings. 50 basis points or more.</b></p><p><b>However, Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that the Fed doesn't like to surprise the market, and the shocking decline in U.S. consumer confidence suggests that a recession is imminent, so the June rate hike of 50 basis points remains their benchmark forecast.</b></p><p>According to Standard Chartered's latest forecast, it expects the Federal Reserve's rate hike of 50 basis points in July (previously expected to be 25 basis points); September rate hike 50 basis points (previously expected to be zero); It was originally expected that the rate hike in December 2022 would be 25 basis points, but now it is believed that this rate hike will be advanced to November; Rate hike was originally expected to be 25 basis points in the second quarter of 2023, but now it is believed that there will be no rate hike. With these revisions, Standard Chartered expects the Fed's ultimate rate hike point to be 2.75%, compared with its previous forecast of 2.25%.</p><p>Looking at Monday's market expectations, the market expects a 44% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike this Wednesday, while it expects more than 7 rate hike on a 25 basis point basis by September, that is, In the next three months, the market expects at least one 75 basis point rate hike.</p><p>What does this mean for markets this week? Englander pointed out that with futures markets priced at about 60 basis points, the first reaction to rate hike of 50 basis points this week will be a weaker dollar and a rise in bond markets, but whether this situation continues will depend on subsequent rate hike messages. Currently, investors are long dollars and short bonds, so there are certain problems in the short term; However, if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sticks to his hawkish stance, investors may quickly reverse the short-term trend.</p><p>Conversely, if the Fed rate hike is 75 basis points this Wednesday, while hinting at a subsequent rate hike pace that will be reduced to 25 basis points, then 75 basis points on rate hike will be meaningless. Therefore, Standard Chartered believes that rate hike's 75 basis points seems likely to be accompanied by a hawkish stance, pointing out that rate hike's 50 basis points or more at subsequent meetings. For the possible scenario of 100 basis points, this may come from the Fed's belief that a \"Volcker moment\" is needed, but Fed officials are not expected to see themselves as far as this, so it is not expected that such aggressive moves are necessary.</p><p>Standard Chartered pointed out,<b>Another important reason why the Fed is unlikely to rate hike 75 basis points or more on Wednesday is the need for quantitative tightening (QT).</b>The Fed will be cautious in indicating a change in the pace of quantitative tightening. The Fed seems to have a strong underlying will to avoid two tightening tracks (rate hike + QT), so it is likely to send a message of stability.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661859\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661859","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243662491","content_text":"上周五美国5月CPI同比上升8.6%，再次刷新40年新高，令通胀见顶论破产。这让市场对美联储加息步伐进行了重新预期和定价。继巴克莱和Jefferies预计美联储在本周三加息75个基点引起轰动后，渣打银行全球外汇研究和北美宏观策略负责人Steven Englander更加语出惊人：虽然他的团队预计美联储6月会议上仍将加息50个基点，但他指出，并不排除加息 75个基点甚至100个基点。之所以给出75个基点甚至100个基点加息，渣打银行的理由是，无论是通胀还是美国经济，都没有发出足够明确的放缓信号，来阻止美联储在接下来的几次会议上加息50个基点或更多。不过渣打银行指出，美联储不喜欢给市场意外，而且美国消费者信心的下降令人震惊，暗示经济衰退迫在眉睫，因此6月加息50个基点仍然是他们的基准预测。根据渣打银行的最新预测，其预计美联储7月份加息50个基点（之前预计为25个基点）；9月份加息50个基点（之前预计为零）；原本预计2022年12月加息25个基点，现在认为这一加息会提前到11月；原本预计2023年二季度加息25 个基点，现在认为不会加息。经过这些修改，渣打银行预计美联储的终极加息点位为2.75%，此前的预测为2.25%。从周一的市场预期来看，市场预计本周三加息75个基点的可能性为44%，而预计到9月时，按25个基点为单位，有7次以上的加息，也就是说，在接下来的三个月里，市场预计至少有一次75个基点的加息。这对本周市场意味着什么？Englander指出，在期货市场定价为约60个基点的情况下，对本周加息50个基点的第一反应将是美元走软和债市上涨，但这种情况是否持续将取决于随后传递的加息信息。当前投资者做多美元，做空债券，因此短期内存在一定的问题；然而，如果美联储主席鲍威尔坚持鹰派立场，投资者们可能会迅速扭转短期走势。相反，如果本周三美联储加息75个基点，同时暗示随后的加息步伐将下调至25个基点，那么加息75个基点将毫无意义。因此渣打认为，加息75个基点似乎可能伴随着鹰派表态，指出在随后的会议上加息50个基点或更多。对于100个基点的可能情况，这也许来自美联储认为需要“沃尔克时刻”，但预计美联储官员们还没有认为自己走到这一步，故预计没有必要采取如此激进的举措。渣打指出，美联储不太可能在周三加息75个基点甚至更多的另外重要原因是：需要量化紧缩（QT）。美联储将谨慎地表明量化紧缩步伐的变化。美联储似乎有强烈的潜在意愿，避免出现两条紧缩轨道（加息+QT），因此很可能传递稳定的信息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPY":1,"ESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,"DDM":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1762,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}