To The Moon

Will the CPI data released in May in the United States next week bring further surprises or scares?​​

The market is watching whether the CPI of the United States cooled down in may, and the European Central Bank paved the way for raising interest rates in July also became a concern.

​In fact, for most investors, the data itself is not important, but the market reaction to the data. Inflation never happens for no reason. It is caused by too much money printed. When the money is recovered, inflation will fall back.

At present, the focus of the market is whether the Fed has enough determination and tools to recover the extra printed liquidity. However, this determination can not be expected by one or two data. Unless it is a clear policy orientation, financial demand will still hoard goods and inflation will be difficult to come down. In a word, what should come will always come, but the time has not come. Before that, set a stop loss and go to the theatre together.

First, the US stock market fluctuated at a high level

When the Fed announced that it would suspend interest rate hikes in September, most assets entered the final long-term moment. As long as the Fed broke its long-term illusion (continued sharp contraction), it would usher in a real weak moment.

Until then, inflationary expectations would be better than economic growth expectations, so it would be easier for commodities to gain more than stocks, but when the Fed's policies are implemented, the situation will be reversed.

Therefore, don't expect the stock market to rebound strongly, and it is normal to fluctuate upward. Long and short judgment is still based on the 20-day moving average, waiting for the real big news to come.​​

Second, the US crude oil pulses again?

Oil is a commodity that likes to double-top, so it is not surprising that it has been rising recently to challenge the previous high.

Due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the EU embargo,Make the price difference between crude oil contracts in recent months and contracts in far months huge,

However, if you track the weighted average of the 12-month crude oil contract, you will find that the current oil price increase is not much. The current weighted average price is around 110, and the high point of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is at 115, which means that the oil price will soon reach the early high pressure position, and I am afraid there will be adjustment.

Of course, the adjustment is not reversal.Whether to reverse or not can be tracked according to the previous basis.

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​Third, precious metals bottomed out and rebounded?

When raising interest rates, there is no bull market in gold, so we should not have illusions, and a staged rebound can be expected.

Gold price has entered a stage pressure position since it rebounded last week. If it bottoms out again at 1800, it will form a double bottom, and it will be bullish in the medium term.If it breaks through upward, it will continue to rebound and challenge 1950. Because platinum is the forward indicator of gold, platinum is stronger than gold, so the probability of bullish gold next week is higher.

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​Third, the stage adjustment of agricultural products has come?

In June, it reached the key node of agricultural products again. At the end of June, there will be a definite report on the planting area of agricultural products in the United States. After the data is confirmed, the area data of this planting season will not be modified, and only weather factors will be hyped in the follow-up. Therefore, June is often the key moment for the hype of agricultural products in the second half of the year.

In terms of planting cycle,Corn and wheat have passed the critical point, so the impact on them in June is often big top or big bottom (although the probability of top and bottom is high, it is very difficult to trade), while for American beans, it is a possible phased large-scale adjustment, which brings room for weather speculation in the second half of the year, so we must always keep an eye on American beans that fall in June.

If it doesn't fall, see you anytime in July-SeptemberTop (the time depends on the news from the Federal Reserve),The deal is not easy either. Let's hope to give some chances to get on the bus.​​

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