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USA CPI for May comes out this Friday（on June 10th）

What's the prediction of market and What is your prediction? 

We need to care about CPI data mainly because：
1) If CPI> 8.3%, short-term all markets tends to tank (Bearish)
2) If CPI data in the range of 8% - 8.3%, all markets tends to slight dump or pump (Neutral)
3) if CPI< 8%, theshort-term all markets tends to pump (Bullish)

Generally speaking, the stock market, foreign exchange market and precious metal market will be affected.

For the data expectation in May, some people think that inflation will peak in May, while others think that it will remain high. The views of the two camps are as follows:

Point 1. U.S. Inflation May Have Peaked In May

Many commentators in the market expect inflation to peak in May.

Goldman Sachs global investment team pointed out at the end of May: "U.S. inflation may have peaked"

They also reviewed the performance of assets before and after the inflation rate reached its peak in the 12 rounds of overall CPI higher than 3% since 1950: The statistical results are shown in the following figure:

Overall, the research shows before the overall CPI reached its peak, the stock market would fall in most cases; Although the volatility of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose after the overall CPI reached its peak, it can recover its lost ground in most cases.

At the same time, we also see that many institutions are buying technology stocks. Pelosi betting on big tech recently, wondering what insider info she has potentially? The May CPI print is going to lower than people expect? 

Point 2. A Higher Inflation Data Will Released

Accroding to Bloomberg, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Wednesday,"The White House expects the next round of economic data to show elevated numbers on inflation."

Jean-Pierre said inflation numbers to be released at the end of this week are likely to show more evidence of high inflation.

"We expect the headline inflation number to be elevated. And we expect the war in Ukraine to have some effects on core inflation, particularly when you look at things like airfares and the effect of higher jet fuel costs," she said.

Source from bloomberg

Fixings traders predicting a CPI of 8.5% on Friday and peaking at 8.8% this summer.

Economists warned that even if the overall inflation eased, the upward trend of core inflation excluding food and energy remained unchanged and would remain high in the coming months.

Pooja sriram, an American economist at Barclays, also warned that in view of the fluctuations in energy prices, it is difficult for the core CPI to fall rapidly. "Given the fall in gasoline prices, energy contributed less to overall inflation in April. It is true that energy will be a bigger problem in the data in May, as gasoline rose to record levels again."

So, what's your prediction? Please mark under the post.

Some other data to be focused on next week:

1) Next Tuesday: PPI Data

2) Next Wednesday: FOMC interest rate decision

$S&P 500(.SPX)$,$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$,$Gold - main 2206(GCmain)$,$DJIA(.DJI)$