To The Moon

Unexpectedly, the fund that Munger used to buy the bottom of Ali actually halved Ali's stock position and stepped down as the chairman of the daily journal. In the previous February, Munger also said that he was optimistic about the Chinese market, which has only been more than a month

First of all, I declare that I don’t hold any Alibaba-related positions, and I don’t discriminate against Munger or those who follow the homework. I just want to explain that the right person must be selected for copying the homework. When talking about marriage, we should pay attention to the right match, and the same is true for investment.

This article is only a record of personal investment thinking, does not constitute any investment advice, the pattern is different, the position is different, for reference only

 Munger added Alibaba all the way last year. The first time he opened a position, the second time he doubled his position, and the third time he doubled his position again. This operation greatly encouraged Ali's bottom-hunting investors. Like I said, if Ali is not good, if you can't buy the bottom, you will be beaten in the face even more directly than Munger.

This was the view before, and it is now. It's just that I didn't expect that Munger directly reduced his positions. I thought he would continue to double down on bargain hunting.

But from an objective point of view, stop loss is not ashamed. As a fund manager, you are actually responsible to investors. If your fund plummets every day, even if you can bear it, can investors bear it? And if it is an open-ended fund, a long-term decline is likely to bring a large number of investors away. Similarly, as an ordinary investor and the owner of assets, if your account plummets all the way, you should do some reflection, not to mention other, at least you should be responsible for yourself.

As for copying homework, I am actually very opposed to it. When I first started doing stocks, I also liked copying homework very much. It would be really difficult to understand, then I would do A shares, and sometimes I would pay attention to which stocks have recently received a lot of money When you buy, just copy the homework. When you are lucky, you can still make money, and when you are unlucky, you will fall after buying. Later, after a long time of hard work, I gradually found that stock trading is not so simple. There are no shortcuts in investing. If you need to rely on other people's decisions when buying a stock, it is better not to do such a transaction. Because even if others help you make a correct decision, there will definitely be various fluctuations in the subsequent development process of the stock. Whether the heart can withstand such fluctuations is still a question mark.

When you start to doubt other people's suggestions, your investment ability begins to become stronger, whether it is correct or not, at least start thinking, not just for a wealth code, because investment can be done for a lifetime, even if you doubled every year before , once you encounter a slump like Zhonggai, you can lose 90% in a year, even if you are a scattered bargain hunter,

If you have to copy homework, I think there are two ideas for reference

If you are a bargain hunter, first analyze why the big guy buys this stock. Take Buffett's recent addition to Occidental Oil, for example. We can do a simple analysis:

1. Why Buffett is buying Occidental (just started seeing Buffett buying Occidental)

2. He already holds a lot of oil stocks, why is he still buying Occidental Oil, and oxy is not a high-quality oil stock?

3. Why is Buffett so anxious to increase Occidental Oil (increase quickly after the first increase)

4. Does Buffett's operations conform to his personal trading philosophy and whether there is cognitive resonance?

5. Will Buffett finally privatize Occidental Petroleum, because the market value of Occidental Petroleum is now 50 billion US dollars. If it is privatized, it will not make money

6. If the short-term rise continues, is there still room for growth?

7. As crude oil prices fall, can oil stocks still rise?

8. How long will the Russian-Ukrainian crisis last? Will oil prices rise again?

   These are just a few questions, you can make more copy homework checklists, do a comparison every time you copy homework, and then decide whether to do it or not.

Go to the bosses among friends and colleagues to copy homework. The bosses you meet at this time are not necessarily very good, but because of the closer relationship, you can have more exchanges, and you will have more knowledge about stocks. And in many cases, everyone's economic strength is similar, so there will be better resonance in subsequent shareholdings. This method is not necessarily very good, but it is still doable. The best way is to listen to other people's opinions and make decisions by yourself.

Copying homework at the same time, the important reason why many people like to do it is because the big guys are also buying the bottoms. Before Buffett was buying the bottoms of Delta Air Lines, many people went there. Recently, Munger bought the bottoms of Ali, and many people also went. The very important reason is that these stocks have experienced a very large retracement, and the big guys are buying the bottom and adding a short-term plunge, which is very easy to stimulate the psychology of following the trend. For example, the recent surge in Western oil, there are not many people copying homework.

More difficult than copying homework is copying the bottoms. Copying + copying homework is almost epic difficulty.

Behind the failure of copying Munger's operation is actually the continuous decline of the entire Chinese concept stocks, and the continuous deterioration of the superimposed fundamentals. Recently, A-shares have also begun to pull back continuously. For China concept stocks and A shares, you can actually do it through some ETFs.

It is actually very difficult to do the bottom-hunting of A shares and the bottom-hunting of Chinese stocks, but from the historical data, the success rate of bottom-buying ETFs will be relatively higher, but if you encounter Zhonggai Internet, it is really a man. Silent female tears, it can only be said that ETFs can improve the success rate, but it cannot guarantee success.

In addition to the $XL2CSOPHSTECH(07226)$ that I shared last time, I saw an ETF that shorted the Hang Seng Index$FI2 CSOP HSI(07500)$ , or made a direct choice. Overall, the current turnover is not bad. The Hang Seng Index has recently reached a more critical position. From From a technical point of view, there is no obvious direction choice now, but the recent rebound has been very large, and the factors leading to the decline have not been completely resolved. At this position, it is still inclined to make a second bottom or continue to new lows. Of course, everything is a prediction, but no matter how you go, choose the target first. If you have difficulty in choosing the target of Hong Kong stocks, it is better to go directly to ETFs. Sometimes the returns of ETFs are not inferior to the underlying stocks. If you are interested, you can consider directly using options to do Hang Seng or Hang Seng Index, but the liquidity of options is relatively general, the price difference is large, and the account volatility will be very large. , there are many tools, but how to choose is up to you.$Alibaba(BABA)$