Is this the sign wifh Commodit

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2022-04-19

Is this the sign wifh Commodities at a new heights.?

Goldman Sachs Sees 1 in 3 Chance of a Recession

The Goldman Sachs economics team says that there is now a 35% chance of a U.S recession over the nex

Goldman Sachs Sees 1 in 3 Chance of a Recession

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But the inversion was short-lived and that curve has started steepening again.</p><p>Yields are up again and the 2s10s is steepening again this morning. The 10-year Treasury yield (NYSEARCA:TBT) (TLT) is up 6 basis points to 2.87% and the 2-year (SHY) is up 5 basis points to 2.49%.</p><p>Real rates, which the Fed also wants to see rise, are climbing as well, with the 10-year inflation-protected yield about 10 basis points away from positive territory.</p><p>&#34;Despite the embarrassing panic about the wrong yield curve measures flattening/inverting earlier this year, the curves that actually forecast recessions remain steep and have been steepening,&#34; MKM&#39;s Michael Darda said in a note. &#34;The long Treasury rate (or 10-year Treasury yield) minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield has inverted before every recession since the mid-1950s.&#34;</p><p>That spread is now around 200 basis points.</p><p>Still, traders see little respite from the bond selloff in the near term.</p><p>“We’re coming out of one of the worst quarters in history ... and the big bear market in bonds continues,” Thanos Bardas, global co-head of investment grade at Neuberger Berman, told The Wall Street Journal.</p><p>SA contributor Brad Thomas said that when a recession hits, it&#39;s time to buy more REITs.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Sees 1 in 3 Chance of a Recession\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-18 16:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3823692-goldman-sachs-sees-1-in-3-chance-of-a-recession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Goldman Sachs economics team says that there is now a 35% chance of a U.S recession over the next two years, with the labor market a particular problem for the Federal Reserve.The large gap ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3823692-goldman-sachs-sees-1-in-3-chance-of-a-recession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","GS":"高盛","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3823692-goldman-sachs-sees-1-in-3-chance-of-a-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2228939922","content_text":"The Goldman Sachs economics team says that there is now a 35% chance of a U.S recession over the next two years, with the labor market a particular problem for the Federal Reserve.The large gap between jobs and workers keeping wage growth elevated has historically only declined during periods of economic contraction, chief economist Jan Hatzius and team wrote in a note out on Sunday.Predictions for a recession have been growing as the Fed tries to negotiate a soft landing for the economy at a time when inflation is at a level not seen in four decades.Deutsche Bank was the first big Wall Street bank to forecast a recession, saying in the first week of April a recession in late 2023 is now their base case.Quotes: “Taken at face value, these historical patterns suggest the Fed faces a hard path to a soft landing,” Hatzius said, according to Bloomberg.But other strategists are more cautious.Wells Fargo stock strategist Chris Harvey said in a note last week that despite \"daily calls for a recession from anyone with a megaphone, we do not expect one of the next 12 months.\"\"Rather, stagflation (high inflation/slower growth) likely will prevail.\"Credit Suisse says it is not underweight equities (NYSEARCA:SPY) (QQQ) because: \"i) equities are fair value (not overvalued) with equities being an inflation hedge compared to bonds; ii) monetary conditions are very loose; iii) we only tend to get recessions 9 months after 3 month money inverts relative to 10 year.\"Go deeper on yields: The Fed's hawkish signaling, with 50-basis-point rate hikes expected over the next few meetings has sent Treasury yields sharply higher.An inversion in the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curve was pointed to as a signal of an upcoming recession. But the inversion was short-lived and that curve has started steepening again.Yields are up again and the 2s10s is steepening again this morning. The 10-year Treasury yield (NYSEARCA:TBT) (TLT) is up 6 basis points to 2.87% and the 2-year (SHY) is up 5 basis points to 2.49%.Real rates, which the Fed also wants to see rise, are climbing as well, with the 10-year inflation-protected yield about 10 basis points away from positive territory.\"Despite the embarrassing panic about the wrong yield curve measures flattening/inverting earlier this year, the curves that actually forecast recessions remain steep and have been steepening,\" MKM's Michael Darda said in a note. \"The long Treasury rate (or 10-year Treasury yield) minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield has inverted before every recession since the mid-1950s.\"That spread is now around 200 basis points.Still, traders see little respite from the bond selloff in the near term.“We’re coming out of one of the worst quarters in history ... and the big bear market in bonds continues,” Thanos Bardas, global co-head of investment grade at Neuberger Berman, told The Wall Street Journal.SA contributor Brad Thomas said that when a recession hits, it's time to buy more REITs.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":43,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}