To The Moon

The escalation of Russia-Ukraine incident triggered a risk aversion market?

The events in Russia and Ukraine are rather confusing, and neither side can see that there is much action, but the United States and the European Union tell the world seriously: "Russia will invade Ukraine in the near future". It is not known whether Russia will really attack Ukraine, but the capital market now thinks it is possible to start a war. Therefore, last Friday night, crude oil, gold and wheat all fluctuated abnormally. Next, I will discuss with you what trading opportunities there are in this safe-haven market if it really starts.

I. Crude oil

When Russia and Ukraine start fighting, European and American countries will definitely sanction Russia, which will hinder Russia's crude oil export, which will undoubtedly make the current crude oil supply worse, and the "forced position" of oil price will become a reality. The specific strategy has been told to you in last week's post. Here, I will talk about the key position of crude oil from the perspective of technical analysis.​​

The 20-day moving average is still a very important reference line for crude oil. Before it falls below, don't short it indiscriminately. After all, the market is forced, and the increase can be amazingI really want to short, so it is better to buy put options.

Second, gold

Gold, as a safe-haven commodity, has shown its safe-haven characteristics in the past two days. However, since it is a risk aversion, once the danger is lifted, the price is easy to reverse, which is determined by fundamental attributes. After all, the expectation of raising interest rates and tightening is very clear.Therefore, in the short term, gold is a safe-haven pulse market, rather than the beginning of a new bull market. Whether it is bullish or not, short-term shorting is easy to lose money.

Last Friday night, gold officially broke through the online track of the channel,It shows that the market has chosen a long direction (although it is short-term). Because it has broken through in the direction for 17 months, the range should be higher. My current expectation is around 2000, and the time point is in mid-March. Therefore, as long as the price of gold does not fall below 1820 next week, it will be bullish until mid-March.

Third, wheat

Although Russia is located in the cold north, it is also a big agricultural country. Ukraine, which borders it, is also the granary of Europe. Once the two countries go to war, the supply of agricultural products will be devastating. At present, the total wheat exports of Russia and Ukraine account for 25% of the global share. Although wheat planting is scattered in the world, such a large share of exports are damaged, and the impact on wheat prices cannot be underestimated.

​February-March is usually the time when American wheat peaks. Combined with the current hype about Russia-Ukraine incident, the probability of wheat fluctuating beyond expectations in February-March is not low, and it is not uncommon for wheat to rise by 20% in a single month. Friday night's live class has clearly told us that as American beans and American corn have started the market,Only wheat lags behind, so wheat is prone to make up for the market. Strategically speaking, if you can make options, you should chase call options, and the risks are fixed. In the case of futures, you can chase small positions, because if the incident does not continue to escalate, then the price will go back where it comes from, so you can do a good job of risk control.

$E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2203(NQmain)$   $Light Crude Oil - main 2203(CLmain)$   $Wheat - main 2203(ZWmain)$   $Gold - main 2204(GCmain)$  $YMmain(YMmain)$