To The Moon

Recent stock price movements in Netflix, Paypal and Facebook were punishing.

Some technicians define a market as bear, if it had fallen more than 20%. If one had made Netflix,

Paypal and Facebook report on the same day/week, then they would have conspired to make a

bear. However, let’s stick to the rules. No 20% yet.

On a long-term momentum basis, Nasdaq has broken major supports. Not yet for the S&P500,

tough

Even if all evolved into bear markets, one must remember that the rebounds had been strong on

history, and one could get out near previous peaks.

Value investing may make a strong comeback. Many old-fashioned brick-and-mortar set-ups have

made substantial progress in their e-business (contributing more than 30% of total revenue). These

may be selling newspapers, running a post office or selling heavily-discounted goods. And, adding

some finesse to it (like acquiring a bank or starting a fin-tech to complement its core business).

And, if nominal yields fail to rise some more, we can start to get back into S-Reits. The punishment

have been somehow restricted to the bigger caps (lower distribution yields). Very few of the smaller

ones had dropped in price. Nice space to be in, if one is creative – history seldom repeats here.

Certain countries (UK, Vietnam) may not be going back to lockdowns, if they could. So, there are

more certainties there than elsewhere.

China, which does zero-tolerance on COVID, may not be helping its already suffering economy

(producer prices and PMIs). The fiscal anticipation only helped a little in stock prices in January. Li

(fiscal) seems to be losing.

So, this would be the space for

us to continue in China. We wait for family-building incentives to be announced. Other 5-Year Plan

growth areas remain intact, if these do not conflict with nation-building objectives.

Crude Oil

Some are accepting the $100 target.

If Ukraine gets resolved, there may be a good entry or re-entry point if you happened to be out, now.

If one thinks of Russia trying to secure areas surrounding its borders, then don’t hope. Think

sanctions instead as a place to start - at a low price.