The decline in CPI from 9.1% in June to 8.5% in July is largely driven by the retreat in energy prices last month. However, one month’s data point does not make a trend.
While I'm cautiously optimistic that the inflation has peaked, it would be prudent to monitor theCPI data over the coming months for reaffirmation, before drawing any conclusion.
Likewise, I doubt that the Fed will be swayed and alter its stance based on softer CPI in a single month. While inflation has eased, it is still unacceptably high and far from the Fed's target.
Hence, I expect the Fed to continue hiking interest rate by 50-75 basis next month.
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