To The Moon

major indexes are up more than 2% in today's trading hour, the reason for that is because UN said the FED is destroying global growth and is encouraging the FED to take it slow and the RBA (Australia central bank) raising interest rates by 25bp instead of 50bp. This caused the market to rally in anticipation that the FED will pivot soon ( the pivot narrative ). But at the same time, do remember that the FED needs to keep its credibility, and the only way the FED could do that is by following its course that they have planned out, which is 2% inflation.

But ultimately, these are all just speculation because the market is just a place for speculations. The next key date is probably 5/10 when NewZealand is set to have their cash rate statement, which will be an indicator of how much the UN statement have an effect on central banks. The next date will be on 7/10 when FOMC member William will be speaking which will give us guidance on what the FED is thinking after UN's statement. Following this, the IMF will also be holding their 7 day long meeting next week starting on 10/10 which will definitely have an impact on the market's speculations

My take from this is that the market will continue to speculate that IMF will somehow support UN's statement which will probably cause the market rally to continue. The datas that came out today ( the JOLTS ) came in as a miss which is good for the inflation narative which is another good news for the market. As a result of this, it is my believe that the following datas will also be a miss which is good for the market now which will cause more market rally. But i believe that so long as the FED doenst chicken out and pivot, the rally will not last pass the start of earnings season which will start on 11/10 when big banks will start off the earning cycle.