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2022-10-10

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Tesla Won't Stop Falling Until Musk Stops Selling

Teslastock had a terrible week, and it’s likely to get worse before it gets better. There are a few reasons for that. One is technical, the other is CEOElon Musk.The week started out shakily. The stoc

Tesla Won't Stop Falling Until Musk Stops Selling

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There are a few reasons for that. One is technical, the other is CEOElon Musk.The week started out shakily. The stoc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla stock had a terrible week, and it’s likely to get worse before it gets better. There are a few reasons for that. One is technical, the other is CEO Elon Musk.</p><p>The week started out shakily. The stock fell 8.6% Monday after Tesla (ticker: TSLA) reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter deliveries the day before. The company delivered 343,830 vehicles, short of the roughly 360,000 that Wall Street expected.</p><p>That was the first problem. Then came Twitter (TWTR). Musk dramatically reversed coursea head of a legal deposition, saying he was willing to purchase the social-media platform at the original deal price of $54.20 a share.</p><p>For Tesla investors, having Musk add Twitter to his list of businesses raises the risk of management distraction. Musk has a lot to do at Tesla these days. There are two new plants which need to ramp production higher, and the company is on the cusp of launching another high-volume model, the Cybertruck, in 2023.</p><p>The risk of distraction looks real. Musk himself has talked in the past about his “chipmunk cheeks” problem. He tends to bite off more than he can chew. That’s a longer-term issue for investors to weigh. Investors have another, more immediate, Twitter-related concern: Musk’s buyout likely means he will be selling more Tesla shares.</p><p>Musk already owns roughly 9% of Twitter stock and needs about $37.5 billion to pay for the rest. He has about $13 billion in debt coming in to help fund it and has sold a little more than $15 billion in Tesla stock already. Then there is another $7 billion coming from other people. That leaves about $2 billion in additional stock sales.</p><p>But wait, there’s more. Future Fund Active ETF co-founder Gary Black estimates another $3 billion will be needed to pay holders of Twitter’s stock-based compensation.</p><p>That’s means Musk could need to sell a total of about $5 billion in Tesla stock. Musk can’t sell any stock until Tesla reports third-quarter earnings on Oct. 19. Bear Traps Report author Larry MacDonald believes investors will take advantage of that window and are “front-running” Musk, selling before he can.</p><p>As for where the shares can go, 22V Research’s John Roque believes Tesla stock is forming a “head-and-shoulders” pattern. That’s a technical term that indicates investors are becoming increasingly bearish.</p><p>The pattern starts with a stock move up and then down. That’s the first shoulder. Then the stock goes to a new high, beyond the first shoulder’s peak, and then declines again. That’s the head. Then the stock goes to the high reached when the first shoulder formed. Once the stock starts declining from the second shoulder, it’s likely it will reach the level where the whole pattern started.</p><p>For Tesla, that level is about $200 a share, according to Roque.</p><p>Tesla stock closed at $223.07 on Friday, down 6.3%, so Roque’s level is down another 10% from here. The entire market was weak after a strong jobs report. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8% and 3.8%, respectively.</p><p>Tesla stock has declined almost 16% for the week.</p><p>The stronger jobs number means the Federal Reserve will remain hawkish, raising interest rates to slow the economy and control inflation. 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There are a few reasons for that. One is technical, the other is CEO Elon Musk.The week started out shakily. The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-elon-musk-sales-twitter-51665156048?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-elon-musk-sales-twitter-51665156048?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122233961","content_text":"Tesla stock had a terrible week, and it’s likely to get worse before it gets better. There are a few reasons for that. One is technical, the other is CEO Elon Musk.The week started out shakily. The stock fell 8.6% Monday after Tesla (ticker: TSLA) reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter deliveries the day before. The company delivered 343,830 vehicles, short of the roughly 360,000 that Wall Street expected.That was the first problem. Then came Twitter (TWTR). Musk dramatically reversed coursea head of a legal deposition, saying he was willing to purchase the social-media platform at the original deal price of $54.20 a share.For Tesla investors, having Musk add Twitter to his list of businesses raises the risk of management distraction. Musk has a lot to do at Tesla these days. There are two new plants which need to ramp production higher, and the company is on the cusp of launching another high-volume model, the Cybertruck, in 2023.The risk of distraction looks real. Musk himself has talked in the past about his “chipmunk cheeks” problem. He tends to bite off more than he can chew. That’s a longer-term issue for investors to weigh. Investors have another, more immediate, Twitter-related concern: Musk’s buyout likely means he will be selling more Tesla shares.Musk already owns roughly 9% of Twitter stock and needs about $37.5 billion to pay for the rest. He has about $13 billion in debt coming in to help fund it and has sold a little more than $15 billion in Tesla stock already. Then there is another $7 billion coming from other people. That leaves about $2 billion in additional stock sales.But wait, there’s more. Future Fund Active ETF co-founder Gary Black estimates another $3 billion will be needed to pay holders of Twitter’s stock-based compensation.That’s means Musk could need to sell a total of about $5 billion in Tesla stock. Musk can’t sell any stock until Tesla reports third-quarter earnings on Oct. 19. Bear Traps Report author Larry MacDonald believes investors will take advantage of that window and are “front-running” Musk, selling before he can.As for where the shares can go, 22V Research’s John Roque believes Tesla stock is forming a “head-and-shoulders” pattern. That’s a technical term that indicates investors are becoming increasingly bearish.The pattern starts with a stock move up and then down. That’s the first shoulder. Then the stock goes to a new high, beyond the first shoulder’s peak, and then declines again. That’s the head. Then the stock goes to the high reached when the first shoulder formed. Once the stock starts declining from the second shoulder, it’s likely it will reach the level where the whole pattern started.For Tesla, that level is about $200 a share, according to Roque.Tesla stock closed at $223.07 on Friday, down 6.3%, so Roque’s level is down another 10% from here. The entire market was weak after a strong jobs report. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8% and 3.8%, respectively.Tesla stock has declined almost 16% for the week.The stronger jobs number means the Federal Reserve will remain hawkish, raising interest rates to slow the economy and control inflation. That’s something else for Tesla investors to worry about.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}