To The Moon

Tesla Should Be the First Company to Achieve Level 4 Autonomy: A Brief History of Autonomous Driving in December 2022

While Tesla is behind admittedly optimistic timelines, the automaker is poised to become the first company that will achieve every subsequent level of autonomy.

In preparation for the autonomous future to come, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) determined five distinct levels of autonomous driving in 2013.

A summation of these levels is as follows:

• Level 0: Manual driving by a human, with no computer assistance.
• Level 1: Steering or acceleration can be controlled by the vehicle.
• Level 2: An integrated driver assistance system comprised of both steering and acceleration/deceleration utilizing environmental data.
• Level 3: A more complete system that can control the vehicle under specific conditions, nonetheless requiring driver attentiveness for immediate intervention.
• Level 4: Vehicles can perform most driver functions and monitor conditions for an entire trip. Automakers can limit functionality to an “operational design domain,” thus the system may not be suited to every trip or condition. Driver intervention is no longer required at this level.
• Level 5: An autonomous driving system with performance and capability equal or superior to that of a human driver, even in the most extreme scenarios.

Thus, level 4 opens up the possibility for the true premise of Full Self-Driving to be achieved and for the invention of robotaxis that don’t mandate steering wheels or pedals.

These standards were originally adopted and defined by SAE International, an organization founded in 1905 by co-founders including Henry Ford, to develop standards for automotive and aerospace engineers.

To be fair, Mobileye’s level 1 autonomous solution essentially brought on the advent of active or assisted cruise control and was available on vehicles produced by other automakers prior to Tesla’s more well-known Autopilot system. However, the key differentiator was that the system only controlled distance to the following vehicle without integrating any form of steering or lane keep assist in North America.

Autopilot was arguably the first level 2 autonomous system widely available on a consumer vehicle. Hardware 1.0 launched in 2014 utilizing third-party components produced by Mobileye, with the basic premise of controlling both steering and acceleration/deceleration on a highway.

Tesla switched to an in-house Autopilot system in 2016, touting the possibility of the hardware to enable Full Self-Driving in the not-so-distant future.

By 2019, Tesla switched to an entirely proprietary Full Self-Driving Computer with Hardware 3.0.

Tesla Vision was the next step in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving vision, eventually removing all radar and sensors in favor of an entirely camera-based neural net approach to autonomy. However, Tesla may backtrack and implement an upgraded radar module in 2023.

The Full Self-Driving Beta has already effectively achieved level 3 autonomy, requiring constant driver supervision and intervention while operating on a wide variety of roads. Prior to Thanksgiving of 2022 Tesla opened access to the Full Self-Driving Beta to all Tesla owners with vehicles that are equipped with the option, launching wide access to level 3 autonomy for the first time ever; albeit, under a ‘Beta’ designation.

Tesla will seek regulatory approval for level 4 autonomy in 2023 if the automaker follows up-to-date timelines, then subsequently launch a series of robotaxi vehicles by 2024.

No other competing system has launched on a vehicle available for consumer or commercial purchase beyond a level 2 base Autopilot-equivalent, and some of the most notable standouts in the space with an end goal of achieving level 4 autonomy are just barely approaching level 2 today.

While it may not have met Elon Musk’s characteristically-optimistic release schedule, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving has a competitive advantage in that its progression is still far ahead of closed-testing solution Waymo, GM’s Super Cruise, and startups in the space.

In fact, competitors have been testing autonomous solutions in closed regulatory environments for the past 18 years with no sanguine or even apparent release schedules for a finalized product.

Musk may constantly underestimate the time it will take for the evolution of Tesla’s autonomous systems, and Tesla may also be overly-confident in its hardware strides, but we do wholeheartedly believe that Tesla will be first to market and that hardware retrofits will be applicable to all Tesla’s made in November 2016 or later as advertised.

The past experience and current progression of the Full Self-Driving Beta indicates that Tesla is well underway to achieving level 4 autonomy within the next two years, and that the automaker will be first company that will do so on a consumer or commercial product.

__________________