To The Moon

APPLE fans’ carnival day is coming next week. $Apple(AAPL)$ 's stock price is about 13% from its all-time high, will this event spark a ATH?

Key Points：

• Apple's Off-line Products Launch Event Returning
• What New Products will beUnveiled on Event？
• What Products Won't Show Up on Event？
• Sales Forcast of New Products?
• How$Apple(AAPL)$ Will Perform Around and After Event?
• APPLE's Risks and Challenges

Apple’s September event invite. From Apple

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1. Apple's Off-line Products Launch Event Returning

September 7, Far out, Apple Event will be held at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. It is expected that Apple will launch a new series of iPhone mobile phones at this conference in accordance with the practice since 2012.

The theme for this fall's event is "Far out," which means "distant, unconventional, and novel." This could be a reference to some of the new features Apple will introduce, including nighttime starry sky photography. Products Like an AR headset, Apple Car, or Homepod with display.

Since the Pandemic period in early 2020, Apple has replaced offline new product launches with video conferences.

Therefore, the Event on September 7 was the first time that Apple held a face-to-face new products launch ceremony after 2019.

The same time, the media will be invited, the Apple's official website and Youtube website will provide a live broadcast for public.

Apple's iconic event usually tends to draw millions of views on YouTube globally. At the same time, it also preheated and marketed the sales of the Christmas shopping season (fourth quarter every year), which is also Apple's highest sales quarter of the year.

2. What New Products will be Unveiled on Event？

Apple unveiled new phones and Apple Watch, followed by new iPads and Apple Computers at last year's fall event,

The following are the new products that Apple is likely to launch at this conference:

a. iPhone 14 series：four new models

https://9to5mac.com/

The iPhone 14 series will be the star of Apple’s “Far Out” September event. With four new models set to be introduced, expect a lot of hype from a new iPhone 14 Plus/Max.

It is reported that Apple will cancel the iPhone mini series with a 4.7-inch screen this year. Apple's new phone will offer two screens, a 6.1-inch and a 6.7-inch, each with two models, a standard version and a pricier Pro version.

The iPhone 14 Pro will be powered by an upgraded A16 processor and camera. The bump volume of the camera combination will be larger.

Another leaker shared the iPhone colors he expects Apple to introduce in a few weeks from now:

• iPhone 14: Green, Purple, Blue, Black, White, and Red. Pink is replaced with Purple, according to his sources;
• iPhone 14 Pro: Green, Purple, Silver, Gold, and Graphite. He says purple takes the place of Sierra Blue.

b. New Apple Watches

https://9to5mac.com/

Next week, Apple is expected to unveil the eighth-generation upgrade to the Apple Watch. Bloomberg‘s Mark Gurman has been reporting that Apple will introduce three new Apple Watch models in 2022.

Last year, the Apple Watch 7 was equipped with a larger screen, but the overall look and feel of the product has not changed substantially and remains the same as it was in 2014.

This year, there will be some improvements to the Apple Watch . According to authoritative media reports, Apple is considering integrating a body temperature sensor in the Apple Watch, which can help "couple creation" or sleep monitoring. Other new features introduced include advanced sleep pattern analysis and (during sleep) apnea analysis.

In the Apple Watch series 8, the biggest change is that there will be a Pro version with a larger screen and a more durable case. The Pro version will be the first time Apple has launched a high-end Apple Watch.

Plus, there's an entry-level version of the Apple Watch, the "Apple Watch SE," priced at $329, and it's possible that Apple will give this entry-level version a modest upgrade this year.

c.iOS 16

How to edit an iMessage in iOS 16, Todd Haselton | CNBC

For those who don't buy Apple's new products, they can still get the annual iOS operating system upgrade, which will be upgraded to iOS 16 this year.

In iOS 16, users can also recall or edit chat messages that iMeesage has sent, but only within a few minutes of sending them.

A short-term consumer loan service from Apple will also be available in iOS, officially called Pay Later with Apple. In the future, users who use Apple Pay to buy goods online can enjoy four installments without interest.

iOS 16 also added a cool feature. If the user has both an iPhone and an Apple computer, the phone can be used as a high-definition camera for the computer.

d. AR/VR glasses related products

Photo: AFP (Getty Images)

Recently, Bloomberg found that Apple has begun to register Reality-related trademarks, including Reality One, Reality Pro, and Reality Processor (thought to be the M2 chip).

And earlier, Apple has shown AR/VR glasses-related products to its board members, and it seems that everything is ready.

Apple's series of actions, as well as the prediction of Far Out (super-forward-looking), have reason to believe that it may be displayed or released in the One More Thing section at the autumn conference.

f. AirPods Pro 2：Supports LE Audio Bluetooth Low Energy

Apple AirPods (from left), AirPods 3, and AirPods Pro.

AirPods Pro was released on October 30, 2019, 1035 days ago.

Before the Apple conference in the past three years, there will be quite a lot of rumors about the second-generation AirPods Pro. As for whether Apple can update as scheduled this fall, it will still be a big question mark.

In Mark Gurman's report, the new AirPods Pro may adopt a new design, cancel the headphone handle to reduce the volume, and the more rounded body can be inserted into the ear more easily.

3. What Products Won't Show Up on Event？

New Macs and iPads could be coming a bit later

Next week, Apple is unlikely to release a brand new IPads and Macs because the software isn't ready yet. In early August, Apple sources told the technology media that this year in 2022, the tablet operating system iPadOS will be launched later than iOS 16.

Earlier this year, Apple gave a very rare hint that it might launch a new version of its "Mac Pro" high-performance computer. The current version of the Mac Pro uses an Intel processor and is priced at $5,000.

According to the plan, Apple will replace Intel chips with self-developed M-series processors in all computers. It should be pointed out that compared with popular products such as iPhones and iWatches, a high-priced niche product like the Mac Pro seems out of place.

Bloomberg‘s Mark Gurman said Apple has new Mac minis and high-end MacBook Pros for later this year. Like last year, Apple is likely to unveil the new Macs at a separate event later this year.

4. Sales Forcast of New Products?

The pricing of Apple's new phones is intriguing as the world is experiencing inflation and some regions face macroeconomic uncertainty. Consumer electronics, including Sony's PS5 game console, have seen price cuts before.

The cheapest of the iPhone launched last year was the small-screen iPhone 13 Nimi, priced at $699, which will be canceled. That way, Apple's cheapest phone on sale will become the $829 iPhone 13 (if the pricing doesn't change). In addition, some Wall Street analysts expect Apple to raise the price of the Pro version iphones.

Meanwhile, According to history, after the release of new iphones, Apple will reduce the price of old iphones to bring opportunities to those price-sensitive consumers.

Regarding the sales expectations of new iphones, even the global mobile phone market fell by 9% in Q2, and IDC forecasts that it will down by 3.5% for the whole of 2022. While Apple still expects to make about 220 million iPhones in total in 2022, roughly the same level as last year, according to people familiar with the matter.

Some analysts said that compared with the iPhone 13 series, the average selling price of the iPhone 14 series is expected to increase by about 15%. In addition, Apple continued to expand the initial stock of the new iPhone 14 series, reaching a high standard of 95 million units, an increase of about 5% compared to previous expectations. To sum up, Apple's new iPhone may "rise in volume and price."

5. How $Apple(AAPL)$ Will Perform Around and After Event?

In mid-August, APPLE price for the third time close to the ATH Price set in January at $182.9 , as of date, APPLE price at $158.8.

Apple's stock price is about 13% away from its all-time high. Is Apple stock still worth holding? Will Apple hit a new high before and after this Fall Event?

According to histocial calculation，Apple’s New iPhones releases can often make fans and stock investors feel excited on most of the Launch Days.

However, investors may usually feel disappointed before and after the Launch Days.

Judging from Apple's historical data: Apple's third-quarter financial report released at the end of July showed that its revenue increased by 2% y-o-y to $83 billion, slightly higher than analysts' consensus forecast of $82.8 billion, but its net profit fell about 10.6% y-o-y to $19.4 billion.

Seems the revenue only barely exceeded market expectations, profits even fell, and the price-earnings ratio was as high as 28 times.

Bloomberg's Tim Culpan believes that the early release of the iPhone 14 series, some of its sales will be included in Apple's fiscal 2022 revenue. It will make the figures in Apple's financial report this year look better, which will be good for Apple's stock price and also good for the declining smartphone market.

Considering future Apple stock prices, we must consider two things when estimating Apple's future growth：

• The market may be in recession, and the U.S. economy has had two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so Apple's revenue growth rate will improve in future periods of economic growth.
• The profit slump can be made up for by cutting costs, which Apple is already doing, so the company's profit growth is also likely to improve in the coming quarters.

We believe, $Apple(AAPL)$ , with a market cap of nearly $3 trillion and an exceptionally strong economic moat (brand and ecosystem, pricing power, and high profit margins), could see improvements in both revenue and profit growth if sales surge in the fall and Christmas. The downward trend in profits may be reversed.

6.APPLE's Risks and Challenges

Higher interest rates: The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 2.88%, and if interest rates rise, the higher discount rate will lead to a decline in Apple's valuation.

Litigation: Market argueing that Apple's business practices, such as charging app developers huge fees (the 30% Apple tax) and not allowing them to use other payment systems, are anticompetitive.

Apple currently faces regulation from multiple governments around the world, and both Epic Games and Meta have criticized Apple's actions, all of which expose Apple to huge litigation risks and could affect Apple's future earnings.

Overall, though, Apple faces less risk than the average tech company, and its economic moat justifies the stock's premium.