I’m 🐻-ish For NIO As It Trades At Analysts’ Low🎯
I’m 🐻-ish after NIO’s Q4 earnings as:
(1) NIO fell 9.4% on 1/3 (Wed) after an earnings miss on both revenue & EPS & the company’s outlook for Q1 sales & deliveries fell short of expectations, while costs ramped higher👎👎
➡️ A 9.4% drop means that investors have a very 🐻-ish POV…that means so should I as more sell-off would occur.
➡️ NIO said it expects to deliver between 31,000 & 33,000 vehicles in the Q1 but NIO has already delivered 20,663 vehicles in Jan & Feb. That means it’ll only be delivering 11,000-12,000 in March🫠🫠🫠
➡️ Nio guided revenue of $1.584 million-$1.674 million. The midpoint of $1.629 billion is far below FactSet consensus of $2.505 billion🐻🐻🐻
(2) J.P. Morgan analyst downgraded NIO stock to Hold from Buy on 2/3 (Thu) & ✂️ his price🎯 to $10 a share from $14 due to the weak outlook & gross profit margins in Q4 declined to about 4% from 13% in Q3🐻🐻🐻
➡️ With sales falling in Q1, margins could fall further💸💸💸
(3) Barclays analyst also ✂️ his rating to Hold from Buy & his price🎯 to $10 a share from $18 as increasing costs & declining margins were concerns.
(4) Mizuho analyst ✂️ his price🎯 to $25 a share from $28 following earnings, but he stuck with his Buy rating on the stock. Costs were concerning, but expects profitability to improve throughout the year as supply chain constraints ease.
⚠️ Although the current consensus among 27 polled investment analysts is Buy. On closer analysis, there’re less Buy & Outperform ratings in March as compared to previous months, & this is a concern to me🐻
⚠️ The 25 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for NIO have a median🎯 of $15.44, with a high🎯 of $25.06 & a low🎯 of $8.30 & NIO’s price at the time of writing was $8.68, with a low of $8.31. ➡️ To me, this means that NIO might fall further than analysts have expected🐻🐻
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