To The Moon

Can U.S. stocks hold the 200-day moving average?

Can the bulls regain dominance?

You choose to stay long or go short?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ trading at a critically important level here. Right below the 50 Day Moving Average(MA50 Redline) but right above the 200 Day Moving Average(MA200 whiteline).

Recently, the performance of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has been relatively weak. It has recorded a decline for three consecutive weeks, and last week it fell by 2.7%, the worst weekly performance since 2023.

Day chart of .SPX

Day chart of .IXIC

Day chart of .DJI

Will the 200 Day hold as support?

Firstly, there are 3 Key facts affect Thursday’s market trend:

1) Musk's "Mater Plan 3" lacks details of the market's expected integrated die-casting technology and next-generation electric vehicles, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 's stock price falls more than 5%,

2) $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ rise 0.41% to $104.83, The trend of the dollar and the trend of the index are still negatively correlated.

3)The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond once broke through 4% to 4.006% for the first time since last November. Short-term rates surged even higher.

USD Index as of 2 March

Secondly ,In the context of an uncertain macro outlook, investors have also begun to pay more attention to technical graphics.

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is currently only about 1% away from its 200-day moving average. If this key support level is broken, it may trigger a new round of selling.

JPMorgan's trading desk warned that trend-following quantitative traders may have to sell as much as $50 billion in stocks if the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ falls below a key technical support point, the 200-day moving average.

According to the team led by Marko Kolanovic, history shows that the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is 2.5 times overvalued at current levels of real interest rates.

Morgan Stanley big short Michael Wilson, also warned that stocks were under pressure in March from weak earnings and elevated valuations.

Separately, traders added nearly $3 billion to their short position in $S&P 500(.SPX)$ futures last week, while pulling a net $5.1 billion from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to statistics.

Amid the pessimism, HSBC Bank Plc strategist Max Kettner believes that with strong economic growth and expectations of rising interest rates already priced in, a relief rebound in U.S. stocks is more likely.

Vote Please,

What your attitude toward current trend?

Can U.S. stocks hold the 200-day moving average?

Can the bulls regain dominance?

Will you choose to stay long or go short?

$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $Dow30 Bear 3X ETF(SDOW)$ $S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF(SPXU)$ $S&P 500 Bear 2X ETF(SDS)$ [Happy]