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2023-04-04

Be careful....

JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Warns Stocks Are in "Calm Before the Storm"

Past two weeks of inflows driven by short squeeze, fall in VIXEquities likely to ‘retest last year’s

JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Warns Stocks Are in "Calm Before the Storm"

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The benchmark S&amp;P 500 rose 7% in the first quarter after dropping nearly 20% in 2022, while gains across technology stocks have pushed the Nasdaq 100 up 20% since the start of January and into a bull market.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Tech’s outperformance has become even more magnified recently as traders ramp up bets that banking-system stresses will prompt the Federal Reserve to hit the brakes on its tightening campaign.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But in Kolanovic’s view, the inflows into stocks over the past few weeks “make little sense” and were largely driven by systemic investors, a short squeeze and a decline in the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX. </p><p>A drop in the VIX below 20, a level associated with less stressful periods, suggests investors believe the banking crisis is contained in the near term. However, Kolanovic characterizes the present market backdrop as “the calm before the storm.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“It is worth noting the accordion-like nature of risk sentiment, where restrictive rates produced an issue for various carry trades and the ensuing pullback in yields mitigated some of the stress,” Kolanovic wrote. “Although central banks are still communicating, there is ground to cover on fighting inflation and pushing back against the market’s assumption of cuts, so the original source of stress, rates higher for longer, can reenter the picture.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Warns Stocks Are in \"Calm Before the Storm\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan’s Kolanovic Warns Stocks Are in \"Calm Before the Storm\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-04 13:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-warns-stocks-are-in-calm-before-the-storm?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Past two weeks of inflows driven by short squeeze, fall in VIXEquities likely to ‘retest last year’s low,’ Kolanovic saysA risk-on mood fueling this year’s equities rally is likely to falter, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-warns-stocks-are-in-calm-before-the-storm?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - 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The benchmark S&P 500 rose 7% in the first quarter after dropping nearly 20% in 2022, while gains across technology stocks have pushed the Nasdaq 100 up 20% since the start of January and into a bull market.Tech’s outperformance has become even more magnified recently as traders ramp up bets that banking-system stresses will prompt the Federal Reserve to hit the brakes on its tightening campaign.But in Kolanovic’s view, the inflows into stocks over the past few weeks “make little sense” and were largely driven by systemic investors, a short squeeze and a decline in the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX. A drop in the VIX below 20, a level associated with less stressful periods, suggests investors believe the banking crisis is contained in the near term. However, Kolanovic characterizes the present market backdrop as “the calm before the storm.” “It is worth noting the accordion-like nature of risk sentiment, where restrictive rates produced an issue for various carry trades and the ensuing pullback in yields mitigated some of the stress,” Kolanovic wrote. “Although central banks are still communicating, there is ground to cover on fighting inflation and pushing back against the market’s assumption of cuts, so the original source of stress, rates higher for longer, can reenter the picture.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}