To The Moon

Tesla has posted an update that Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive is expected to no longer qualify for the $7,500 tax credit beginning on March 31st.

The configurator for Model 3 currently includes the following notice:

New Model 3 and Model Y vehicles qualify for a federal tax credit for eligible buyers. This $7,500 credit is anticipated to be reduced for Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive by March 31.

Eligible Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive buyers would have to take delivery today to still qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit.

Effectively, Tesla is pushing Existing Inventory for Model 3 buyers. Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive is available today in an extremely limited capacity.

This may also affect Model 3 leasing, which starts at $349/month with $4,500 down. However, there are different stipulations for commercial leasing that could continue to qualify leases.

This should only affect the Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive configuration, which uses a lithium-iron phosphate battery produced in China rather than a more conventional lithium-ion battery.

The government is expected to release detailed battery sourcing eligibility guidelines for the tax credit by the end of the month, with battery production and sourcing location being the most critical components.

Real Talk

This could be marketing at this point to move the Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive inventory that remains as well as an end-of-quarter push, although we do believe that beginning next month the base configuration will no longer qualify due to its lithium-iron phosphate battery not meeting eligibility criteria.

There are a few ways that Tesla could respond to this, including by reducing the $42,990 starting price of Model 3 to ~ $39,990 or even as low as $36,990 like the previous Model 3 Standard Range Plus configuration.

Model 3 Long Range All-Wheel Drive should be re-introduced at a $49,990 price point, and it will continue to qualify for the $7,500 tax credit alongside Model 3 Performance.

Beyond that, it doesn’t seem that Tesla has imminent plans to move LFP battery production to North America or to change the battery chemistry.

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