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我是梦幻金钱战士
2023-03-16

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Soul Torture: Will a "safe" American Treasury Bond be the tipping point of the next crisis?

美国国债变成了“有毒资产”。

Soul Torture: Will a "safe" American Treasury Bond be the tipping point of the next crisis?

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The Swiss National Bank has announced that it will inject liquidity urgently.In this crisis, the Treasury Bond of the United States, which has always been regarded as the safest asset in the world, has become a \"toxic asset\" at the center of the vortex. Some people even think that the US Treasury Bond may trigger the next financial crisis.Chris Crawford, fund manager at asset management firm Eric Sturdza Investments, said in a recent report:\"The 2008 financial crisis was triggered by'ninja loans' issued to people who had no income, no jobs, and no fixed assets, and the'toxic 'asset that triggered the next crisis will be government bonds!\"Of course,This is not to say that there are any similarities between the U.S. Treasury Bond and the high-risk assets in the financial crisis. The reason why government bonds have become \"toxic\" is that the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the value of the bond market. Some banks that fail to manage interest rate risks well face huge floating losses, and the superimposed outflow of deposits leads to poor liquidity. When long-term debts are not due, they may be forced to sell their debts at a loss to cope with depositors' withdrawals.U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Gruenberg has previously said,As of the end of 2022, the floating loss of the U.S. banking industry in bond investment will be as high as US $620 billion.Even if banks can avoid floating losses from turning into real losses, or have enough capital to absorb floating losses, concerns about bank liquidity may induce a run on depositors.Silicon Valley Bank is a gory example. Most of its client funds come from demand deposits with tech companies. Moreover, a fairly high proportion of the deposit base is not protected by deposit insurance.Such depositors are not bound by services such as escrow, cash management or clearing, are sensitive to interest rates and easily transferable. If there is any doubt about the solvency of the bank, depositors will rush away at the first time. Silicon Valley Bank was withdrawn $42 billion in one day, directly causing it to fall into a liquidity crisis.Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research told the media that if it weren't for the banking crisis, the CPI data that did not cool down this week should have caused the Fed to rate hike by 50 basis points again.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64c1638d1ab38980ab4614968480764\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>However, the latest data from the futures market shows that the market believes that the possibility of no rate hike next week is 34.3%, and the possibility of rate hike's 25 basis points is 65.7%. Before the explosion of Silicon Valley Bank, the probability of rate hike's 50 basis points was as high as 90%.</body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Soul Torture: Will a \"safe\" American Treasury Bond be the tipping point of the next crisis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoul Torture: Will a \"safe\" American Treasury Bond be the tipping point of the next crisis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2023-03-16 21:13\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>In just one weekend, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed one after another, and the banking crisis continued to spread, even affecting Credit Suisse, a century-old investment bank. The Swiss National Bank has announced that it will inject liquidity urgently.In this crisis, the Treasury Bond of the United States, which has always been regarded as the safest asset in the world, has become a \"toxic asset\" at the center of the vortex. Some people even think that the US Treasury Bond may trigger the next financial crisis.Chris Crawford, fund manager at asset management firm Eric Sturdza Investments, said in a recent report:\"The 2008 financial crisis was triggered by'ninja loans' issued to people who had no income, no jobs, and no fixed assets, and the'toxic 'asset that triggered the next crisis will be government bonds!\"Of course,This is not to say that there are any similarities between the U.S. Treasury Bond and the high-risk assets in the financial crisis. The reason why government bonds have become \"toxic\" is that the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the value of the bond market. Some banks that fail to manage interest rate risks well face huge floating losses, and the superimposed outflow of deposits leads to poor liquidity. When long-term debts are not due, they may be forced to sell their debts at a loss to cope with depositors' withdrawals.U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Gruenberg has previously said,As of the end of 2022, the floating loss of the U.S. banking industry in bond investment will be as high as US $620 billion.Even if banks can avoid floating losses from turning into real losses, or have enough capital to absorb floating losses, concerns about bank liquidity may induce a run on depositors.Silicon Valley Bank is a gory example. Most of its client funds come from demand deposits with tech companies. Moreover, a fairly high proportion of the deposit base is not protected by deposit insurance.Such depositors are not bound by services such as escrow, cash management or clearing, are sensitive to interest rates and easily transferable. If there is any doubt about the solvency of the bank, depositors will rush away at the first time. Silicon Valley Bank was withdrawn $42 billion in one day, directly causing it to fall into a liquidity crisis.Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research told the media that if it weren't for the banking crisis, the CPI data that did not cool down this week should have caused the Fed to rate hike by 50 basis points again.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64c1638d1ab38980ab4614968480764\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>However, the latest data from the futures market shows that the market believes that the possibility of no rate hike next week is 34.3%, and the possibility of rate hike's 25 basis points is 65.7%. Before the explosion of Silicon Valley Bank, the probability of rate hike's 50 basis points was as high as 90%.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684181\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe8ba21c8b5ac2b562fdf822ed7fcb2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684181","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1114791300","content_text":"短短一个周末，硅谷银行和签字银行相继倒闭，银行业危机持续蔓延，甚至已波及百年投行瑞信。瑞士央行已宣布，将为其紧急注入流动性。在这场危机中，一直被视为全球最安全的资产——美国国债成了漩涡中心的“有毒资产”。有观点甚至认为，美国国债可能引爆下一场金融危机。资管机构Eric Sturdza Investments的基金经理Chris Crawford在近期发布的报告中表示：“引爆2008年金融危机是那些发给没有收入、没有工作、没有固定资产的人的‘忍者贷款’，而引爆下一次危机的‘有毒’资产将是政府债券！”当然，这并不是说美国国债和金融危机中的高风险资产有什么相似之处，政府债券之所以变得“有毒”，是因为美联储连续加息，导致债券市场价值下跌，部分未能管理好利率风险的银行面临巨额浮亏，叠加存款流出导致其流动性较差，长期债务还未到期时，可能就要被迫亏本出售债务应对储户提款。美国联邦存款保险公司主席格伦伯格此前曾表示，截止2022年末，美国银行业在债券投资上的浮亏高达6200亿美元。即使银行可以避免浮亏变为实损，或者有足够的资本消化浮亏，对银行流动性的担忧也可能诱发储户挤兑。硅谷银行就是一个血淋淋的例子。其大部分客户资金来自科技公司的活期存款。而且存款基数中有相当高的比例不受存款保险保障。这样的存款人不受托管、现金管理或清算等服务的约束，对利率敏感，容易转移。如果对银行的偿付能力有疑问，储户会第一时间抢跑。硅谷银行在一天就内被提走420亿美元，直接致其陷入流动性危机。Renaissance Macro Research的Neil Dutta对媒体称，如果不是银行业的危机，本周未见降温的CPI数据，原本应该会使美联储再次加息50个基点。但期货市场最新数据显示，市场认为下周不加息的可能性为34.3%，加息25个基点的可能性为65.7%，硅谷银行爆雷前，加息50基点概率一度高达90%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2683,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}