To The Moon

Apple has most made a good gain in 2023, gaining 27.35% year-to-date. On Tuesday March 21, it gained another 1.19%, together with most other big name tech stocks as banking industry woes shook the markets.

The next swing high resistance level would likely be $165, where on Sep 12 last year it made an upthrust after distribution before selling off, forming a bull trap pattern. If it can close strongly above the $165 level, this stock might be able to go back to all-time-highs. 

But... it also depends on the Fed path of remaining rate hikes.

SPX above 200 MA but still below 50Ma

The S&P 500 made a good gain on Tuesday as the FOMC meeting began. It closed strongly above the 200 daily moving average, but remains below the 50 daily moving average. Initially, traders anticipated a higher 50 bp rate hike for this meeting. But the banking crisis happened, three banks failed and a fourth was on the verge of going under. 

"Without exception, every tightening cycle has been associated with a financial shock/crisis," wrote Evercore ISI's Ed Hyman on Tuesday. "And every financial shock/crisis has ended only after the Fed has at least paused."

Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI and head of the firm's Global Policy and Central Bank Strategy Team, expects a quarter-point increase. "However, a hike gets stopped out if Fed officials cannot be sufficiently confident that interventions are locking down stress, which feels like a close call," he wrote in a March 20 note.

CME FedWatch Tool

FedWatch March Meeting

FedWatch May Meeting

Traders are now expecting a 25 basis point hike, with a probability of 87.8%. A no hike probability is down to 12.2%. Compared to a month ago, the chances of 25 bp hike was 76.0% and 50 bp hike was 24.0%.

Looking to the next meeting in May, traders expect the Fed funds rate to end up at 5.0% to5.25%, aka 25 bp in March and 25 bp in May.That stands at 58.2% probability. Meanwhile 37.7% expect the rate to remain at 4.75% to 5.0%, meaning that March would be the last rate hike, aka pointing towards a pause.

What do you all in the community expect on the path of the remaining rate hikes? Share yourthoughts in the comments.

$Apple(AAPL)$ 

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ 

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ 

@TigerStars