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2023-03-21

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The Bank Panic of 2023 Could Be Just What the Stock Market Needs to Make Money for Investors Again

Why the S&P 500 can be expected to bottom in April or May and post a double-digit gain by March 2024

The Bank Panic of 2023 Could Be Just What the Stock Market Needs to Make Money for Investors Again

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That cheery prospect emerges from an analysis of the U.S. stock market&#39;s reaction to past banking panics. Though stocks not surprisingly declined in the immediate wake of those past crises, they almost always recovered quickly. On average a year later, the market was well above where it stood before the crisis erupted.</p><p>To conduct this analysis, I focused on banking panics in the U.S. since 1870, according to a database compiled by Matthew Baron of Cornell University, Emil Verner of MIT, and Wei Ziong of Princeton. On average, the stock market&#39;s post-panic low was hit within two months of the panic&#39;s onset. Furthermore, in an average of just five months the S&amp;P 500&#39;s total real return index was higher than where it was prior to the panic&#39;s onset. At the panics&#39; one-year anniversary, the index was 8.0% higher, on average.</p><p>If the stock market follows a similar script in the wake of the current banking crisis, the S&amp;P 500 will hit a low sometime this April or May and then rally strongly -- eclipsing its early-March level by the end of the summer and, by March 2024, sitting on a double-digit gain in nominal terms over where it stood recently. (This nominal gain reflects the average one-year post panic return of 8% real, plus inflation; see accompanying chart.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74498ec13d929a6b73fa31201fd474e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>These averages gloss over considerable variation from panic to panic. The longest recovery time for any panic since 1870 was for the one that occurred most recently, in September 2008. It took the S&amp;P 500 six months to finally hit its low, and more than an additional year for the S&amp;P 500 to be higher than where it stood prior to the panic&#39;s onset.</p><p>You shouldn&#39;t be particularly surprised by the overall averages. The &#34;plunge followed by quick recovery&#34; pattern is the stock market&#39;s typical reaction to geopolitical and economic crises, not just bank panics -- as I&#39;ve written before.</p><p>Probably the worst thing you can do, from an investment point of view, is to sell into a panic. Odds are good that, by doing that, you&#39;ll get highly unfavorable outcomes.</p><p>Unless you were lucky enough to get out of stocks before the SVB- <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">$(SIVB)$</a> and Credit Suisse (CSGN.EB)-triggered panic, the best course of action is to hold on for the anticipated recovery. History suggests that, in not too many months, you will be glad you did.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Bank Panic of 2023 Could Be Just What the Stock Market Needs to Make Money for Investors Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Bank Panic of 2023 Could Be Just What the Stock Market Needs to Make Money for Investors Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-21 16:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Why the S&amp;P 500 can be expected to bottom in April or May and post a double-digit gain by March 2024.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5147e1be08859af49b11144c24e749b9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>ISTOCK</span></p><blockquote>Plunge followed by quick recovery is the stock market’s typical pattern in economic crises.</blockquote><p>The S&amp;P 500  could beat inflation by 8% over the next 12 months. That cheery prospect emerges from an analysis of the U.S. stock market&#39;s reaction to past banking panics. Though stocks not surprisingly declined in the immediate wake of those past crises, they almost always recovered quickly. On average a year later, the market was well above where it stood before the crisis erupted.</p><p>To conduct this analysis, I focused on banking panics in the U.S. since 1870, according to a database compiled by Matthew Baron of Cornell University, Emil Verner of MIT, and Wei Ziong of Princeton. On average, the stock market&#39;s post-panic low was hit within two months of the panic&#39;s onset. Furthermore, in an average of just five months the S&amp;P 500&#39;s total real return index was higher than where it was prior to the panic&#39;s onset. At the panics&#39; one-year anniversary, the index was 8.0% higher, on average.</p><p>If the stock market follows a similar script in the wake of the current banking crisis, the S&amp;P 500 will hit a low sometime this April or May and then rally strongly -- eclipsing its early-March level by the end of the summer and, by March 2024, sitting on a double-digit gain in nominal terms over where it stood recently. (This nominal gain reflects the average one-year post panic return of 8% real, plus inflation; see accompanying chart.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74498ec13d929a6b73fa31201fd474e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>These averages gloss over considerable variation from panic to panic. The longest recovery time for any panic since 1870 was for the one that occurred most recently, in September 2008. It took the S&amp;P 500 six months to finally hit its low, and more than an additional year for the S&amp;P 500 to be higher than where it stood prior to the panic&#39;s onset.</p><p>You shouldn&#39;t be particularly surprised by the overall averages. The &#34;plunge followed by quick recovery&#34; pattern is the stock market&#39;s typical reaction to geopolitical and economic crises, not just bank panics -- as I&#39;ve written before.</p><p>Probably the worst thing you can do, from an investment point of view, is to sell into a panic. Odds are good that, by doing that, you&#39;ll get highly unfavorable outcomes.</p><p>Unless you were lucky enough to get out of stocks before the SVB- <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">$(SIVB)$</a> and Credit Suisse (CSGN.EB)-triggered panic, the best course of action is to hold on for the anticipated recovery. History suggests that, in not too many months, you will be glad you did.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4211":"区域性银行","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4589":"SVB概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SIVBQ":"硅谷银行","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321663825","content_text":"Why the S&P 500 can be expected to bottom in April or May and post a double-digit gain by March 2024.ISTOCKPlunge followed by quick recovery is the stock market’s typical pattern in economic crises.The S&P 500  could beat inflation by 8% over the next 12 months. That cheery prospect emerges from an analysis of the U.S. stock market's reaction to past banking panics. Though stocks not surprisingly declined in the immediate wake of those past crises, they almost always recovered quickly. On average a year later, the market was well above where it stood before the crisis erupted.To conduct this analysis, I focused on banking panics in the U.S. since 1870, according to a database compiled by Matthew Baron of Cornell University, Emil Verner of MIT, and Wei Ziong of Princeton. On average, the stock market's post-panic low was hit within two months of the panic's onset. Furthermore, in an average of just five months the S&P 500's total real return index was higher than where it was prior to the panic's onset. At the panics' one-year anniversary, the index was 8.0% higher, on average.If the stock market follows a similar script in the wake of the current banking crisis, the S&P 500 will hit a low sometime this April or May and then rally strongly -- eclipsing its early-March level by the end of the summer and, by March 2024, sitting on a double-digit gain in nominal terms over where it stood recently. (This nominal gain reflects the average one-year post panic return of 8% real, plus inflation; see accompanying chart.)These averages gloss over considerable variation from panic to panic. The longest recovery time for any panic since 1870 was for the one that occurred most recently, in September 2008. It took the S&P 500 six months to finally hit its low, and more than an additional year for the S&P 500 to be higher than where it stood prior to the panic's onset.You shouldn't be particularly surprised by the overall averages. The \"plunge followed by quick recovery\" pattern is the stock market's typical reaction to geopolitical and economic crises, not just bank panics -- as I've written before.Probably the worst thing you can do, from an investment point of view, is to sell into a panic. Odds are good that, by doing that, you'll get highly unfavorable outcomes.Unless you were lucky enough to get out of stocks before the SVB- $(SIVB)$ and Credit Suisse (CSGN.EB)-triggered panic, the best course of action is to hold on for the anticipated recovery. History suggests that, in not too many months, you will be glad you did.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}