To The Moon

FED

May FOMC 0.25 might be last raise; Much talked about pause from June

FED say will pause for longer, Bond market say will cut rate 3x by end 2023

FED say need see next 3 inflation reports - May, June, July, means continued pause or cut will be known by FOMC 21 July

Liquidity

Mar rally was fuelled by all the bank failures and FED injecting liquidity in the market

Late Apr FED resumption of QT briefly stopped the "rally"

FED started pumping again after the 2 latest banks "possible" failures

Expect some propping of market for now (evident also on Friday 5 May)

Price action

Has been on an early possible bull cycle since Oct 2022 and remains so on long term indicators

Key level to break now is 416 which leads to 421 and then 430

430 will be the confirmation of the bull cycle

This does not mean there will be no pullbacks; Just remember that market always go from imbalance to balance, so MA5/MA20 are often reference levels 

Crash

Don't see it for now, but a pullback of 4% to 8% is possible (will still maintain a higher low)

There are still too many bear puts in the market which restricts the big pullback

Earnings

Although many companies seems to be reporting beats but note that it is because the estimates have been constantly downgraded prior to earnings

Reality is many companies are facing earnings compression and recession

This does point to a possibly good 2024 reporting

Methodology

Am using options to take the swing plays as market had been in clear and good trading ranges since Oct 2022

Longer term holds on good counters for 2024 or 2025

Am personally still bullish long term, but using price action to guide me through the liquidation breaks and major pullbacks

Good luck, all!

@TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  @LMSunshine  @Deposit  @melson  

$SPY(SPY)$