To The Moon

At 2:00 pm Eastern Time on May 3, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00%-5.25% as scheduled, in line with expectations, announcing that this round of interest rate hike cycle is basically over. Every time the market uses the official announcement of the Fed to try to figure out the connotation of Powell's reply in the question session. The question on the 3rd is very transparent. The following are the main points of his reply: 1) Future interest rate policy towards a "data dependent" approach; 2) This meeting did not make a clear decision on whether to stop raising interest rates; 3) More data is needed to see whether the Fed funds rate is sufficiently restrictive; 4) More rate hikes are still possible if greater monetary policy constraints are required; 5) It is too early to talk about interest rate cuts, more time and data are needed; demand and labor market conditions need to weaken again; 6) The process of dealing with inflation needs to be further developed, and inflationary pressure is still high, and there is still a long way to go before inflation falls back to the 2% target; 7) Early signs of weakness in the labor market suggest a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy is still possible (contrary to the Fed's recent forecast of a shallow recession this year.) Powell is still ambiguous about the next step of the policy rate in the late cycle, failing to meet the market's general expectations, and the stock market sold off in late trading; in this wave of interest rate hike cycles, the performance of small and medium-sized banks in the United States is far behind that of large banks.....