To The Moon

Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. Berkshire Share Count Increase Over Q3 2022 Below is the Share Increase for Q3 2022, as they did not do any in Q4 2022. Berkshire has increased their share count in Q3 2022 for $Occidental(OXY)$. We might want to take a look at how OXY have performed to warrant Buffet to increase such a high percentage. Do remember there was a 1.16 million barrels a day, follows a cut of two million barrels a day in October 2022. (Q3 2022) Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Stocks Share Increase Berkshire has increase the shares by around 8.93% in Q1 2023, when they have done a 43.15% increase in Q3 2022. OPEC+ announced another production cut in April 2023, this might be signal that Buffet know that this is going to happen in Q2 2023(Apr-Jun 2023), that is why he has also increase the OXY share count. But let us see how OXY share price has stacked up against the crude oil price in these 2 share count increase. Long Term and Short Term Stock Price vs Oil Production Output by OXY If we were to put what Benjamin Graham has said about short term and long term investing Over the short term, the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it will be a weighting machine. If we look at how the earnings per share (EPS) with share price, we will have a flawed but reasonable way that is to assess how sentiment around OXY has changed. If we look at end of 2021, we can see that the share price has grown strongly. Could the stocks share count by Buffet(Berkshire) has to push up the stock price? If we follow why they have loaded so much in Q3 2022, we will have to see the news on crude oil prices. When the stocks share count increase in Q3 2022, that is the time when production cuts is announced by OPEC, and crude oil price did fall between Q3 to Q4 2023. Similarly, the crude oil price also fell when Berkshire load more share count in Q1 2023, what does it tell us? I believe this has something to do with OXY’s production in the US Permian Basin. OXY CEO has informed that US Permian has not yet seen peak oil production, yet 80%-90% of the increase will come from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-permian-has-not-yet-seen-peak-oil-production-occidental-ceo-2023-04-12/ So are we seeing more production ramped up by OXY in the coming quarter, this would be good news if that happen. OXY Forward Plan to increase oil production in Permian basin I believe why Berkshire has loaded more share in OXY could be due to the fact that OXY will overcome the production cut by OPEC+ which is going to start in May 2023, by increasing their output from the Permian basin. This would help OXY to maintain a competitive advantage not only against competitor U.S. producers, they would be able to supply oil at a better price, come May 2023. Summary As an investor in energy stocks, I would like to see a strong U.S. producer like OXY take advantage of the situation. Turning a crisis (due to oil production cut) to increasing output from a under-production area (e.g. Permian Basin of West Texas and West Mexico). I would think it is a good idea to follow what Berkshire(Buffet) next action will be come Q2/Q3 on Stocks Share Count for OXY. I believe Berkshire will seize the opportunities to load more OXY shares (as a form of DCA, dollar cost averaging). Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section on what are your thoughts if data center stocks is the next area we as investor should look at? Do like, share and comment on this article if you find this trading thought useful. @TigerStars @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts. Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.