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2023-03-14

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Can the Fed's rescue of banks stop contagion?

“危机的传染性常常更多体现在非理性恐惧上”。硅谷银行短短两天破产的消息引发大量对银行业危机蔓延的担忧，为了恢复市场对银行系统的信心，美国监管机构迅速采取了救市行动。美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司

Can the Fed's rescue of banks stop contagion?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9949561313,"tweetId":"9949561313","gmtCreate":1678760718733,"gmtModify":1678760722630,"author":{"id":4095548256553960,"idStr":"4095548256553960","authorId":4095548256553960,"authorIdStr":"4095548256553960","name":"xiaochoochoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa4c71aeb75832cfccf0bf892d1f6ec","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":188,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>👍</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>👍</p></body></html>","text":"👍","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949561313","repostId":2319027011,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2319027011","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1678759743,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319027011?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-14 10:09","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Can the Fed's rescue of banks stop contagion?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319027011","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"“危机的传染性常常更多体现在非理性恐惧上”。硅谷银行短短两天破产的消息引发大量对银行业危机蔓延的担忧，为了恢复市场对银行系统的信心，美国监管机构迅速采取了救市行动。美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"The contagiousness of crisis is often more reflected in irrational fear\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The news of bankruptcy in just two days caused a lot of worries about the spread of the banking crisis. In order to restore the market's confidence in the banking system, American regulators quickly took rescue actions.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a joint statement on Sunday saying that the FDIC has the ability to complete the bankruptcy disposal of Silicon Valley Bank on the premise of \"fully protecting depositors.\" Starting from March 13 (Monday), \"Depositors can withdraw all their deposits\", and at the same time, any losses related to this will not be borne by taxpayers.</p><p>The joint statement also said that the headquarters is in New York<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYP\">Signature Bank</a>It was closed by state regulators on Sunday. \"Like Silicon Valley Bank depositors, all depositors of the bank can access their deposits, and taxpayers will not bear any losses.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2ddac6bcc4740008025c0edf1c3d9e0\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Federal Reserve also announced that it will provide additional funds to banks through the newly launched Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) financing facility to ensure that they can meet the needs of depositors. The Fed said it is \"ready to deal with any liquidity pressure that may arise.\"</p><p>Before the market opened on Monday (March 13), Dow futures rose 0.2%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures rose 1%.</p><p>In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.2% on Monday, the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 0.55%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7%. A number of Chinese companies issued statements over the weekend saying that the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank has little impact on business or no business dealings.</p><p><b>Will the bailout measures work?</b></p><p>The risk caused by Silicon Valley Bank came very suddenly. Last week, the large-scale sell-off of U.S. bank stocks dragged down the broader market. The S&P 500 index closed down 4.6% that week, almost erasing all gains so far this year. The Dow and Nasdaq closed down respectively. 4.6% and 4.7%.</p><p>Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial Wealth, told MarketWatch via email: \"For an already jittery market, the panic caused by a bank failure involuntarily reminds people of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's BTFP financing facility will provide banks with loans for up to 12 months, avoiding banks from falling into Silicon Valley Bank selling assets at a loss. The BTFP is large enough to cover uninsured deposits in the banking system, according to people familiar with the matter. The most important point is that assets used as collateral for loans can be valued at face value, rather than at current market prices. The Fed will also accept collateral for the discount window under the same conditions.</p><p>\"These are very aggressive measures,\" said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.</p><p>Accepting collateral at face value means banks that have accumulated more than $600 billion in unrealized losses on portfolios of held-to-maturity U.S. Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities and are not hedged against interest rate risk are expected to dodge a bullet, Ashworth pointed out.</p><p>For now, most analysts and economists believe that the Silicon Valley Bank failure is not a systemic problem. UniCredit Bank Chief Economic Advisor Eric F.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">Nelson</a>(Erik F. Nielsen) pointed out in a research note released on Sunday that Silicon Valley Bank is \"a rather special case of balance sheet mismanagement, with the company holding a large amount of long-term bonds financed by short-term debt.\"</p><p>Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments, said: \"It's not so much whether the risk will spread as it is a test of the bank's ability to cope with financing pressures, which Silicon Valley Bank clearly doesn't have.\"</p><p>Others believe that in addition to mismanagement, the Fed's rate hike has also created an environment that will lead to such events. Short-term U.S. bond yields are significantly higher than long-term U.S. bond yields (that is, the yield curve is deeply inverted), amplifying liabilities and Asset mismatch.</p><p>Barry Knapp, managing partner and head of research at Ironside Macroeconomics, said: \"The yield curve inversion has reached a very severe level, and if it continues like this, there will be more bank thunderstorms.\"</p><p>Capital Economics' Ashworth said of the Fed's measures to rescue banks: \"Rationally speaking, this should be enough to stop the contagion of the crisis and avoid more bank failures. But the contagiousness of crises is often more reflected in irrational fears, so it is important to emphasize that there is no guarantee that the Fed's measures will work.\"</p><p>Ashworth noted that the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank \"reminds us,<b>'Something tends to crash' when the Fed is aggressive on rate hike</b>, if not in the real economy, then in the financial system. \"</p><p><b>The probability of the Fed accelerating rate hike in March drops to zero</b></p><p>After the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank shook financial markets, federal funds futures prices showed that the probability of the Fed's 50 basis point rate hike in March has dropped from 70% to zero.</p><p>Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, pointed out in a research note on Friday that the Fed now \"sees very clear evidence\" that rate hike \"is having an impact on the financial system and economy, which will prompt the Fed to take this into account in the rate hike process.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) economists believe that,<b>Bailouts for Silicon Valley Bank and other bank depositors mean Fed won't rate hike at March meeting</b>。</p><p>The team led by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a research note released late Sunday: \"Given the recent pressure on the banking system, we no longer expect the FOMC to meet on March 22. rate hike at the meeting because there is great uncertainty about the outlook after March.\"</p><p>Hazus' team had expected the Fed to issue a 25 basis point rate hike next week. They said: \"Our expectation that the FOMC will rate hike 25 basis points in May, June and July remains unchanged, and now expect the terminal rate to be 5.25-5.5%, but to note that there is considerable uncertainty about the rate hike path.\"</p><p><b>Sell-off Presents Opportunity to Buy Quality Bank Stocks</b></p><p>Investors are worried that other banks may suffer similar woes to Silicon Valley Bank. Analysts believe that the banking industry does face challenges as the Federal Reserve curbs inflation through rate hike, but the entire banking industry is unlikely to be as vulnerable as Silicon Valley Bank, especially the larger banks. The sell-off in bank stocks caused by this incident has brought an opportunity to buy large bank stocks.</p><p>Barry Knapp, managing partner and head of research at Ironsides Macroeconomics, believes a deal to protect depositors will provide a boost to the entire stock market, with the possibility of \"skyrocketing\" of last week's battered bank stocks \"because they are cheap\" and the banking system is \"overall in very healthy shape\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Vivek Juneja, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities, said: \"We think some bank stocks are oversold because big banks have more liquidity than small banks, have more diversified business models, have a lot of capital, do a better job of risk management and are more regulated.\"</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank's customer base is concentrated in sectors particularly affected by rate hike, while Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Big banks such as (WFC) have much more diversified customer bases and funding sources. In addition, after the financial crisis, large banks have been subject to stricter supervision and stress tests every year. Their business is completely different from that of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>That doesn't mean large banks won't be affected by the current events, but the impact won't be catastrophic. RBC analyst Gerard Cassidy sees a buy<b>Bank of America,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FITBO\">Fifth Third Bancorp</a>Huntington Banshares , JPMorgan Chase,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KEY\">KeyCorp</a>, M&T Bank, $PNC Financial $Services Group (PNC), Regions Financial and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USBOV\">U.S. Bancorp</a></b>The opportunity. \"The sell-off presents an opportunity for investors to buy shares at a discount in high-quality banks with strong, low-cost consumer deposit businesses, and by holding these shares, investors will receive capital appreciation and strong Dividend yields,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Fed's rescue of banks stop contagion?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Fed's rescue of banks stop contagion?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-14 10:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"The contagiousness of crisis is often more reflected in irrational fear\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The news of bankruptcy in just two days caused a lot of worries about the spread of the banking crisis. In order to restore the market's confidence in the banking system, American regulators quickly took rescue actions.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a joint statement on Sunday saying that the FDIC has the ability to complete the bankruptcy disposal of Silicon Valley Bank on the premise of \"fully protecting depositors.\" Starting from March 13 (Monday), \"Depositors can withdraw all their deposits\", and at the same time, any losses related to this will not be borne by taxpayers.</p><p>The joint statement also said that the headquarters is in New York<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYP\">Signature Bank</a>It was closed by state regulators on Sunday. \"Like Silicon Valley Bank depositors, all depositors of the bank can access their deposits, and taxpayers will not bear any losses.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2ddac6bcc4740008025c0edf1c3d9e0\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Federal Reserve also announced that it will provide additional funds to banks through the newly launched Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) financing facility to ensure that they can meet the needs of depositors. The Fed said it is \"ready to deal with any liquidity pressure that may arise.\"</p><p>Before the market opened on Monday (March 13), Dow futures rose 0.2%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures rose 1%.</p><p>In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.2% on Monday, the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 0.55%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7%. A number of Chinese companies issued statements over the weekend saying that the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank has little impact on business or no business dealings.</p><p><b>Will the bailout measures work?</b></p><p>The risk caused by Silicon Valley Bank came very suddenly. Last week, the large-scale sell-off of U.S. bank stocks dragged down the broader market. The S&P 500 index closed down 4.6% that week, almost erasing all gains so far this year. The Dow and Nasdaq closed down respectively. 4.6% and 4.7%.</p><p>Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial Wealth, told MarketWatch via email: \"For an already jittery market, the panic caused by a bank failure involuntarily reminds people of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's BTFP financing facility will provide banks with loans for up to 12 months, avoiding banks from falling into Silicon Valley Bank selling assets at a loss. The BTFP is large enough to cover uninsured deposits in the banking system, according to people familiar with the matter. The most important point is that assets used as collateral for loans can be valued at face value, rather than at current market prices. The Fed will also accept collateral for the discount window under the same conditions.</p><p>\"These are very aggressive measures,\" said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.</p><p>Accepting collateral at face value means banks that have accumulated more than $600 billion in unrealized losses on portfolios of held-to-maturity U.S. Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities and are not hedged against interest rate risk are expected to dodge a bullet, Ashworth pointed out.</p><p>For now, most analysts and economists believe that the Silicon Valley Bank failure is not a systemic problem. UniCredit Bank Chief Economic Advisor Eric F.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">Nelson</a>(Erik F. Nielsen) pointed out in a research note released on Sunday that Silicon Valley Bank is \"a rather special case of balance sheet mismanagement, with the company holding a large amount of long-term bonds financed by short-term debt.\"</p><p>Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments, said: \"It's not so much whether the risk will spread as it is a test of the bank's ability to cope with financing pressures, which Silicon Valley Bank clearly doesn't have.\"</p><p>Others believe that in addition to mismanagement, the Fed's rate hike has also created an environment that will lead to such events. Short-term U.S. bond yields are significantly higher than long-term U.S. bond yields (that is, the yield curve is deeply inverted), amplifying liabilities and Asset mismatch.</p><p>Barry Knapp, managing partner and head of research at Ironside Macroeconomics, said: \"The yield curve inversion has reached a very severe level, and if it continues like this, there will be more bank thunderstorms.\"</p><p>Capital Economics' Ashworth said of the Fed's measures to rescue banks: \"Rationally speaking, this should be enough to stop the contagion of the crisis and avoid more bank failures. But the contagiousness of crises is often more reflected in irrational fears, so it is important to emphasize that there is no guarantee that the Fed's measures will work.\"</p><p>Ashworth noted that the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank \"reminds us,<b>'Something tends to crash' when the Fed is aggressive on rate hike</b>, if not in the real economy, then in the financial system. \"</p><p><b>The probability of the Fed accelerating rate hike in March drops to zero</b></p><p>After the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank shook financial markets, federal funds futures prices showed that the probability of the Fed's 50 basis point rate hike in March has dropped from 70% to zero.</p><p>Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, pointed out in a research note on Friday that the Fed now \"sees very clear evidence\" that rate hike \"is having an impact on the financial system and economy, which will prompt the Fed to take this into account in the rate hike process.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) economists believe that,<b>Bailouts for Silicon Valley Bank and other bank depositors mean Fed won't rate hike at March meeting</b>。</p><p>The team led by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a research note released late Sunday: \"Given the recent pressure on the banking system, we no longer expect the FOMC to meet on March 22. rate hike at the meeting because there is great uncertainty about the outlook after March.\"</p><p>Hazus' team had expected the Fed to issue a 25 basis point rate hike next week. They said: \"Our expectation that the FOMC will rate hike 25 basis points in May, June and July remains unchanged, and now expect the terminal rate to be 5.25-5.5%, but to note that there is considerable uncertainty about the rate hike path.\"</p><p><b>Sell-off Presents Opportunity to Buy Quality Bank Stocks</b></p><p>Investors are worried that other banks may suffer similar woes to Silicon Valley Bank. Analysts believe that the banking industry does face challenges as the Federal Reserve curbs inflation through rate hike, but the entire banking industry is unlikely to be as vulnerable as Silicon Valley Bank, especially the larger banks. The sell-off in bank stocks caused by this incident has brought an opportunity to buy large bank stocks.</p><p>Barry Knapp, managing partner and head of research at Ironsides Macroeconomics, believes a deal to protect depositors will provide a boost to the entire stock market, with the possibility of \"skyrocketing\" of last week's battered bank stocks \"because they are cheap\" and the banking system is \"overall in very healthy shape\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Vivek Juneja, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities, said: \"We think some bank stocks are oversold because big banks have more liquidity than small banks, have more diversified business models, have a lot of capital, do a better job of risk management and are more regulated.\"</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank's customer base is concentrated in sectors particularly affected by rate hike, while Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Big banks such as (WFC) have much more diversified customer bases and funding sources. In addition, after the financial crisis, large banks have been subject to stricter supervision and stress tests every year. Their business is completely different from that of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>That doesn't mean large banks won't be affected by the current events, but the impact won't be catastrophic. RBC analyst Gerard Cassidy sees a buy<b>Bank of America,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FITBO\">Fifth Third Bancorp</a>Huntington Banshares , JPMorgan Chase,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KEY\">KeyCorp</a>, M&T Bank, $PNC Financial $Services Group (PNC), Regions Financial and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USBOV\">U.S. Bancorp</a></b>The opportunity. \"The sell-off presents an opportunity for investors to buy shares at a discount in high-quality banks with strong, low-cost consumer deposit businesses, and by holding these shares, investors will receive capital appreciation and strong Dividend yields,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2ddac6bcc4740008025c0edf1c3d9e0","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2319027011","content_text":"“危机的传染性常常更多体现在非理性恐惧上”。硅谷银行短短两天破产的消息引发大量对银行业危机蔓延的担忧，为了恢复市场对银行系统的信心，美国监管机构迅速采取了救市行动。美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)周日发布联合声明称，FDIC有能力在“充分保护储户”的前提下完成对硅谷银行的破产处置，从3月13日（周一）开始，“储户可以取到他们所有的存款”，与此同时，任何与此相关的损失都不会由纳税人承担。联合声明还称，总部设在纽约Signature Bank已于周日被州监管机构关闭，“和硅谷银行的储户一样，该行所有储户都能取到自己的存款，纳税人不会承担任何损失。”美联储另外宣布，将通过新推出的Bank Term Funding Program (简称BTFP)融资工具向银行提供额外资金，以确保它们能满足储户的需求。美联储称“已做好准备应对任何可能出现的流动性压力”。周一（3月13日）盘前，道指期货上涨0.2%，标普500指数期货上涨0.5%，纳指期货上涨1%。A股市场上证综指周一收盘上涨1.2%，深证成指收涨0.55%，香港恒生指数收涨1.7%。周末多家中国企业发布声明称，硅谷银行破产对业务影响不大或无业务往来。救市措施会奏效吗？硅谷银行引发的风险来得非常突然，上周美股银行股遭到的大规模抛售拖累大盘走低，标普500指数当周收跌4.6%，几乎抹去了今年迄今所有涨幅，道指和纳指分别收跌4.6%和4.7%。B. Riley Financial Wealth首席市场策略师阿特·霍根(Art Hogan)通过电子邮件告诉MarketWatch：“对于一个已经紧张不安的市场来说，一家银行倒闭引发的恐慌情绪让人们不由自主地想起了2007年至2009年的全球金融危机。美联储的BTFP融资工具将向银行提供最长12个月的贷款，避免银行陷入硅谷银行亏本出售资产的困境。据知情人士透露，BTFP的规模足以覆盖银行系统中的未投保存款。最重要的一点是，用作贷款抵押的资产可以按面值衡量价值，而不是按当前市场价格。美联储也将在同样条件下接受贴现窗口的抵押品。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席北美经济学家保罗·阿什沃思(Paul Ashworth)说：“这些都是力度非常大的措施。”阿什沃思指出，按面值接受抵押品意味着，在持有至到期的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券组合上积累了超过6000亿美元未实现亏损、且没有对冲利率风险的银行有望躲过一劫。就目前而言，大多数分析人士和经济学家认为硅谷银行破产不属于系统性问题。裕信银行(UniCredit Bank)首席经济顾问埃里克·F·尼尔森(Erik F. Nielsen)在周日发布的研报中指出，硅谷银行是“资产负债表管理不善的一个相当特殊的例子，该公司持有大量由短期债务融资的长期债券”。GLOBALT Investments高级投资组合经理托马斯·马丁(Thomas Martin)说：“与其说风险是否会蔓延，不如说这是考验银行是否有能力应对融资压力的问题，硅谷银行显然没有这个能力。”还有人认为，除了管理不善，美联储加息也带来了一个会导致此类事件发生的环境，短期美债收益率大幅高于长期美债收益率（即收益率曲线深度倒挂）放大了负债和资产错配。Ironside Macroeconomics执行合伙人兼研究主管巴里·纳普(Barry Knapp)说：“收益率曲线倒挂已经达到非常严重的程度，如果继续这样下去，会发生更多银行暴雷事件。”凯投宏观的阿什沃思在谈到美联储出手救银行的措施时说：“理性地说，这应该足以阻止危机蔓延，避免更多银行倒闭。但危机的传染性常常更多体现在非理性恐惧上，因此要强调的一点是，无法保证美联储的措施会奏效。”阿什沃思指出，硅谷银行破产“提醒我们，当美联储激进加息时，‘有些东西往往会崩溃’，如果不是在实体经济中，那么就是在金融系统中”。美联储3月加速加息概率降至零硅谷银行破产震动金融市场后，联邦基金期货价格显示，美联储3月加息50个基点的概率已经从70%降至零。瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克·海菲勒(Mark Haefele)在上周五在研报中指出，美联储现在“看到了非常明确的证据”表明，加息“正在对金融系统和经济产生影响，这会促使美联储在加息进程中考虑到这一点”。高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家认为，对硅谷银行和其他银行储户的救助意味着美联储在3月会议上不会加息。由高盛首席经济学家简·哈祖斯(Jan Hatzius)带领的团队在周日晚些时候发布的研报中说：“鉴于近日银行系统面临的压力，我们不再预计FOMC会在3月22日的会议上加息，因为3月之后的前景存在很大的不确定性。”哈祖斯的团队此前预计美联储将于下周加息25个基点。他们说：“我们对FOMC将在5月、6月和7月加息25个基点的预期保持不变，现在预计最终利率为5.25-5.5%，但要指出的是，加息路径存在相当大的不确定性。”抛售带来买入优质银行股的机会投资者担心其他银行也可能遭遇类似硅谷银行的困境。分析人士认为，在美联储通过加息遏制通胀之际，银行业的确面临挑战，但整个银行业不太可能像硅谷银行那样脆弱，尤其是规模较大的银行，这次事件导致的银行股抛售反倒带来了一个买入大型银行股票的机会。Ironsides Macroeconomics执行合伙人兼研究主管巴里·纳普(Barry Knapp)认为，保护储户的协议将给整个股市带来提振，上周遭受重创的银行股可能出现“暴涨”，“因为它们很便宜”，而且银行系统“整体状况非常健康”。摩根大通证券(J.P. Morgan Securities)分析师维韦克·朱内贾(Vivek Juneja)说：“我们认为一些银行股被过度抛售，因为大银行比小银行拥有更多的流动性，业务模式更加多元化，拥有大量资本，在风险管理方面做得更好，也受到更多监管。”硅谷银行的客户群集中在受加息影响尤为严重的行业，而美国银行(BAC)、摩根大通(JPM)和富国银行(WFC)等大银行的客户基础和资金来源的多样化程度要高得多。此外，金融危机过后大型银行还受到更严格的监管，每年要进行压力测试，它们的业务也和硅谷银行完全不同。这并不意味着大型银行不会受到当前事件的影响，但影响不会是灾难性的。RBC分析师杰拉德·卡西迪(Gerard Cassidy)看到了买入美国银行、Fifth Third Bancorp、Huntington Bancshares 、摩根大通、KeyCorp、M&T Bank、$PNC金融$服务集团(PNC)、Regions Financial和U.S. Bancorp 的机会。他说：“此次抛售为投资者带来了一个机会，可以折价买入拥有强大、低成本消费者存款业务的优质银行的股票，通过持有这些股票，投资者将获得资本增值和强劲的股息收益率。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SIVB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}