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2023-03-14

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Rate hike is expected to cool down! Sounds coming from the market that interest rates are about to peak

投资者争相降低对全球利率的预期，并放弃对美国下周大幅加息的押注，认为自金融危机以来美国最大的银行硅谷银行的倒闭将使决策者三思而后行。周日，美国政府就硅谷银行事件采取了紧急措施，以提振银行业信心，在硅谷

Rate hike is expected to cool down! Sounds coming from the market that interest rates are about to peak

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Sounds coming from the market that interest rates are about to peak","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319045969","media":"智通财经","summary":"投资者争相降低对全球利率的预期，并放弃对美国下周大幅加息的押注，认为自金融危机以来美国最大的银行硅谷银行的倒闭将使决策者三思而后行。周日，美国政府就硅谷银行事件采取了紧急措施，以提振银行业信心，在硅谷","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Investors are scrambling to lower expectations for global interest rates and drop bets on sharp U.S. rate hike next week, arguing the largest U.S. bank since the financial crisis<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse will make policymakers think twice before acting. The U.S. government took emergency measures on the Silicon Valley Bank incident on Sunday to boost confidence in the banking industry, which hit withdrawal pressure, Bank of New York<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYP\">Signature Bank</a>Guarantee the deposit after closing under pressure. The Federal Reserve has also set up a new mechanism to enable banks to access emergency funds.</p><p>U.S. stocks were mixed, with bond markets repricing interest rate expectations amid the belief that the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to rate hike next week, while market sentiment is hot and subtle. U.S. interest rate futures soared and the strong rebound in short-term bonds continued, putting the two-year U.S. bond on track for its best three-day gain since Black Monday in 1987.</p><p>Akira Takei, fixed-income portfolio manager at Asset Management One in Tokyo, said bank pressures and the resulting restructuring of the loan book mean higher borrowing costs, and pressures on the real economy make further Fed rate hike difficult. \"If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raises interest rates next week, he will jeopardize that situation,\" it added. \"If the Fed doesn't prioritize financial stability, it can create a situation of economic instability or recession.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A report released late Sunday showed analysts at the bank said banking stress meant they were no longer forecasting a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week, providing additional support to rising interest rates in Asian markets.</p><p>The U.S. two-year Treasury Bond yield briefly fell below 4% for the first time since last October, last falling 54.7 basis points to 4.04%. After the deadly Black Monday stock market crash, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note is on track for its biggest one-day drop since October 1987.</p><p>In addition, the two-year yield of 4.04% is also lower than the bottom rate of the Fed's funds rate window of 4.5%, which is a sign that the market believes that the peak of interest rates is coming. The latest futures pricing shows a 44% chance that the Fed will leave interest rate policy unchanged next week and a 57% chance that rate hike will be 25 basis points, which is compared to last week's market expectation that the Fed will rate hike by 50 basis points. A dramatic change.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>Group (ING) economist Rob Carnell said: \"I think people are linking the problems with Silicon Valley Bank to the rate hike we've already had. If rising interest rates lead to this, the Fed will be very mindful of that going forward. The Fed won't want another 50 basis point rate hike, causing some<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institution</a>The phenomenon of being looted happens. \"</p><p>On the other hand, the pre-market trend of U.S. stocks also rose sharply on Monday, depressing market expectations for interest rates to peak. The implied pricing of peak U.S. interest rates fell to 4.7% on Monday from about 5.7% on Wednesday, and year-end expectations (up from 5.5% last week) fell to about 3.9%, down about 160 basis points in a few days.</p><p>Australian interest rate futures and European futures also rose, and the prices of these futures rarely fluctuated much in Asian markets. Traders believe that global policymakers are becoming cautious.</p><p>The scale of the shift drew warnings from analysts, who said they could quickly unwind their positions, especially if U.S. inflation data comes strong next week. Long-term U.S. bond yields will also be left in the climate, and if the Fed slows or stops its rate hike, the country's inflation will face greater risks.</p><p>\"Markets, especially in Asian time zones, are still pricing in news about the decline caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank,\" said Jack Chambers, senior interest rate strategist at ANZ Bank in Sydney. \"The aid to deposit holders supports the idea that the Fed can continue to tighten monetary policy.\" The premise, he noted, is that the measures can keep a handful of banks out of the failure issue.</p><p>Still, a new Federal Reserve bank funding program aimed at addressing some of the obvious problems with Silicon Valley Bank's bond portfolio losses is expected to further help stabilize banks and bonds. Banks can now borrow collateral such as Treasury Bond from the Federal Reserve at face value rather than market value-greatly reducing the need for banks to clear bonds to meet unexpected withdrawals.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rate hike is expected to cool down! 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Sounds coming from the market that interest rates are about to peak\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-14 09:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Investors are scrambling to lower expectations for global interest rates and drop bets on sharp U.S. rate hike next week, arguing the largest U.S. bank since the financial crisis<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse will make policymakers think twice before acting. The U.S. government took emergency measures on the Silicon Valley Bank incident on Sunday to boost confidence in the banking industry, which hit withdrawal pressure, Bank of New York<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYP\">Signature Bank</a>Guarantee the deposit after closing under pressure. The Federal Reserve has also set up a new mechanism to enable banks to access emergency funds.</p><p>U.S. stocks were mixed, with bond markets repricing interest rate expectations amid the belief that the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to rate hike next week, while market sentiment is hot and subtle. U.S. interest rate futures soared and the strong rebound in short-term bonds continued, putting the two-year U.S. bond on track for its best three-day gain since Black Monday in 1987.</p><p>Akira Takei, fixed-income portfolio manager at Asset Management One in Tokyo, said bank pressures and the resulting restructuring of the loan book mean higher borrowing costs, and pressures on the real economy make further Fed rate hike difficult. \"If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raises interest rates next week, he will jeopardize that situation,\" it added. \"If the Fed doesn't prioritize financial stability, it can create a situation of economic instability or recession.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A report released late Sunday showed analysts at the bank said banking stress meant they were no longer forecasting a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week, providing additional support to rising interest rates in Asian markets.</p><p>The U.S. two-year Treasury Bond yield briefly fell below 4% for the first time since last October, last falling 54.7 basis points to 4.04%. After the deadly Black Monday stock market crash, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note is on track for its biggest one-day drop since October 1987.</p><p>In addition, the two-year yield of 4.04% is also lower than the bottom rate of the Fed's funds rate window of 4.5%, which is a sign that the market believes that the peak of interest rates is coming. The latest futures pricing shows a 44% chance that the Fed will leave interest rate policy unchanged next week and a 57% chance that rate hike will be 25 basis points, which is compared to last week's market expectation that the Fed will rate hike by 50 basis points. A dramatic change.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>Group (ING) economist Rob Carnell said: \"I think people are linking the problems with Silicon Valley Bank to the rate hike we've already had. If rising interest rates lead to this, the Fed will be very mindful of that going forward. The Fed won't want another 50 basis point rate hike, causing some<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institution</a>The phenomenon of being looted happens. \"</p><p>On the other hand, the pre-market trend of U.S. stocks also rose sharply on Monday, depressing market expectations for interest rates to peak. The implied pricing of peak U.S. interest rates fell to 4.7% on Monday from about 5.7% on Wednesday, and year-end expectations (up from 5.5% last week) fell to about 3.9%, down about 160 basis points in a few days.</p><p>Australian interest rate futures and European futures also rose, and the prices of these futures rarely fluctuated much in Asian markets. Traders believe that global policymakers are becoming cautious.</p><p>The scale of the shift drew warnings from analysts, who said they could quickly unwind their positions, especially if U.S. inflation data comes strong next week. Long-term U.S. bond yields will also be left in the climate, and if the Fed slows or stops its rate hike, the country's inflation will face greater risks.</p><p>\"Markets, especially in Asian time zones, are still pricing in news about the decline caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank,\" said Jack Chambers, senior interest rate strategist at ANZ Bank in Sydney. \"The aid to deposit holders supports the idea that the Fed can continue to tighten monetary policy.\" The premise, he noted, is that the measures can keep a handful of banks out of the failure issue.</p><p>Still, a new Federal Reserve bank funding program aimed at addressing some of the obvious problems with Silicon Valley Bank's bond portfolio losses is expected to further help stabilize banks and bonds. Banks can now borrow collateral such as Treasury Bond from the Federal Reserve at face value rather than market value-greatly reducing the need for banks to clear bonds to meet unexpected withdrawals.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/891284.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","ING":"荷兰国际","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4207":"综合性银行","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4589":"SVB概念","BK4211":"区域性银行"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/891284.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2319045969","content_text":"投资者争相降低对全球利率的预期，并放弃对美国下周大幅加息的押注，认为自金融危机以来美国最大的银行硅谷银行的倒闭将使决策者三思而后行。周日，美国政府就硅谷银行事件采取了紧急措施，以提振银行业信心，在硅谷银行遭遇提款压力，纽约银行Signature Bank在压力下关闭后，为存款提供担保。美联储还设立了一项新机制，使银行能够获得应急资金。美国股市涨跌不一，债券市场对利率预期进行了重新定价，因为市场认为美联储下周可能不愿加息，而市场情绪紧张火热而微妙。而美国利率期货飙升，短期债券的强劲反弹延续，令两年期美债有望创下自 1987 年黑色星期一以来的最佳三日涨幅。东京 Asset Management One 固定收益投资组合经理 Akira Takei 表示，银行压力和由此导致的贷款账簿重组意味着借贷成本上升，实体经济面临的压力使得美联储进一步加息变得困难。“如果美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔下周提高利率，他将危及这种情况，”其补充称。“如果美联储不优先考虑金融稳定，就可能会产生经济不稳定或衰退的情况。”高盛周日晚些时候发布的一份报告显示，该行分析师表示，银行业压力意味着他们不再预测美联储下周会加息，这为亚洲市场的利率上涨提供了额外的支撑。自去年10月以来，美国两年期国债收益率首次短暂跌破4%，最后一次下跌54.7个基点，至4.04%。在致命的“黑色星期一”股市崩盘之后，两年期美债的收益率有望创下1987年10月以来的最大单日跌幅。此外，两年期收益率为4.04%，也低于美联储基金利率窗口4.5%的底端利率，为市场认为利率峰值即将到来的一个迹象。最新的期货定价显示，美联储下周有44%的可能性保持利率政策不变，加息25个基点的可能性为57%，这与上周市场预期美联储将加息50个基点的情况相比，发生了巨大的变化。荷兰国际集团(ING)经济学家罗布·卡内尔(Rob Carnell)表示：“我认为人们正在将硅谷银行的问题与我们已经进行的加息联系起来。如果利率上升导致这种情况，美联储将在未来十分留意这一点。美联储不会想要再一次加息 50 个基点，导致一些金融机构被洗劫一空的现象发生。”另一方面，周一美股盘前的走势也大幅上扬，压低了市场对利率见顶的预期。美国利率峰值的隐含定价从周三的约 5.7% 跌至周一的 4.7%，年末预期(上周高于5.5%)降至约3.9%，几天内下降约160个基点。澳大利亚利率期货和欧洲期货也出现上涨，该等期货价格在亚洲市场很少有出现太大波动，交易员认为全球政策制定者正变得谨慎。这种转变的规模引起了分析师的警告，他们表示他们可能会迅速平仓，尤其是如果下周美国通胀数据强劲的话。长期美债收益率也将被抛在气候，如果美联储放缓或停止加息，该国通胀将面临更大的风险。“市场，尤其是亚洲时区的市场，仍在消化有关硅谷银行倒闭导致下跌的消息。”悉尼澳新银行高级利率策略师 Jack Chambers 表示。“对存款持有人的援助支持了美联储可以继续收紧货币政策的想法。”他指出，前提是这些措施能够将少数银行排除在倒闭问题之外。尽管如此，一项旨在解决硅谷银行债券投资组合亏损的一些明显问题的新的美联储银行融资计划预计将进一步有助于银行和债券的稳定。银行现在可以按面值而不是市场价值从美联储借入国债等抵押品——这大大减少了银行清算债券以满足意外提款的需要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QID":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SIVB":0.64,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"ING":1,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}