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2023-03-08

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Non-farm payrolls have exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be "another addition" on Friday?

经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。

Non-farm payrolls have exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be "another addition" on Friday?

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Will there be \"another addition\" on Friday?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317496400","media":"金十数据","summary":"经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth because they overestimated the impact of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive rate hike action in decades. U.S. non-farm payrolls growth has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months, the longest running in decades.<b>If this trend continues, it will increase pressure on the Fed to continue its rate hike.</b></p><p>Since April last year, the median forecast of each survey of economists by foreign media has been 100,000 lower than the non-agricultural data released by the government on average per month, which is the largest gap among the data compiled by foreign media since 1998. For the February non-farm payrolls report released on Friday,<b>Market estimates are for an increase of 200,000 people, about half of January's increase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697290899720116a3782360dc5ae33fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth</b>, because they<b>Overestimates the impact of the Fed's most aggressive rate hike action in decades</b>。 After going through COVID-19 pandemic,<b>Businesses are reluctant to lay off employees they have worked so hard to hire</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">Apollo Global Management</a>Torsten Slok, the company's chief economist, said:</p><p>\"The market had been expecting a slowdown against the backdrop of the Fed's rate hike, but that simply hasn't happened.\" Employers are still struggling to fill millions of open jobs, and jobless claims are at an all-time low. On the other hand, some industries are laying off jobs and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate hike over the summer, which could put more pressure on demand and risk slowing hiring significantly.</p><p>At present,<b>The labor market is one of the last hurdles for the Fed's fight against inflation</b>。 Steady job creation and wage growth will keep consumers spending, which will keep prices rising. Understanding the trajectory of inflation is critical for policymakers trying to cool it without triggering a recession.</p><p>Here are some of the factors that will make payroll surprisingly strong:</p><p><b>The demand for workers remains high</b></p><p>As of the end of this year, there were more than 11 million jobs in the United States. At present, the market expects that the January JOLTs job openings in the United States announced on Wednesday are expected to show a slight slowdown in employment opportunities in January.<b>Vacancies are most visible in sectors such as leisure and hospitality and healthcare</b>, while other data shows manufacturers and small businesses are also struggling to fill the gaps.</p><p><b>With labour shortages so severe, businesses have been retaining workers in a practice known as'labour hoarding '</b>。 The Fed mentioned this at its last policy meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan said:</p><p>\"If the trend of labor hoarding continues, it could keep the labor market stronger in the cycle for a while, and it's really hard to pinpoint the timing of a slowdown.\"<b>Small scope of layoffs</b></p><p>Although the technology industry is making drastic layoffs, about 110,000 people were laid off from November to January last year alone,<b>But that's a fraction of a workforce of nearly 166 million</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists say,<b>This situation is also largely limited to companies that have expanded aggressively during the pandemic and have seen their stock prices fall significantly</b>。 They said in a report:</p><p>\"These characteristics suggest that companies doing layoffs are not representative of the economy as a whole, and many recent layoff announcements do not necessarily mean weaker hiring demand that could have a broader impact.\" The Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows,<b>Broader measures of layoffs in the broader economy remain below pre-pandemic levels</b>, but it has increased in the past year.<b>Claims for unemployment benefits remain low, at less than 200,000 for seven weeks.</b></p><p>That may be partly due to severance payments,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economist Daniel Silver estimated last month that according to their model, the number of unemployment claims should increase by about 50,000, but the progress of corporate layoffs may be delayed because of severance pay.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>Unemployed Americans Could Soon Be Poached by Other Companies, Too</b>。 Hiring rates (hiring relative to total employment) remain above the pre-pandemic average.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>Ryan expects the latest revised data released on Wednesday to make hiring rates look stronger.</p><p>It should be noted that employment returned to pre-pandemic levels in the middle of last year, so<b>It is natural that the pace of employment growth is slowing down</b>。 In addition, the Federal Reserve's rate hike may accelerate the trend of economic cooling. That's what the Fed is trying to design, which is to slow the pace of hiring to ease wage pressures and bring inflation down to its 2% target. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics said in a report last month:</p><p>\"If the breadth of redundancy announcements widens, or re-employment rates begin to decline rapidly, it will indicate that cracks are forming in the labor market.\"</body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Non-farm payrolls have exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be \"another addition\" on Friday?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNon-farm payrolls have exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be \"another addition\" on Friday?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-08 20:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth because they overestimated the impact of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive rate hike action in decades. U.S. non-farm payrolls growth has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months, the longest running in decades.<b>If this trend continues, it will increase pressure on the Fed to continue its rate hike.</b></p><p>Since April last year, the median forecast of each survey of economists by foreign media has been 100,000 lower than the non-agricultural data released by the government on average per month, which is the largest gap among the data compiled by foreign media since 1998. For the February non-farm payrolls report released on Friday,<b>Market estimates are for an increase of 200,000 people, about half of January's increase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697290899720116a3782360dc5ae33fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth</b>, because they<b>Overestimates the impact of the Fed's most aggressive rate hike action in decades</b>。 After going through COVID-19 pandemic,<b>Businesses are reluctant to lay off employees they have worked so hard to hire</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">Apollo Global Management</a>Torsten Slok, the company's chief economist, said:</p><p>\"The market had been expecting a slowdown against the backdrop of the Fed's rate hike, but that simply hasn't happened.\" Employers are still struggling to fill millions of open jobs, and jobless claims are at an all-time low. On the other hand, some industries are laying off jobs and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate hike over the summer, which could put more pressure on demand and risk slowing hiring significantly.</p><p>At present,<b>The labor market is one of the last hurdles for the Fed's fight against inflation</b>。 Steady job creation and wage growth will keep consumers spending, which will keep prices rising. Understanding the trajectory of inflation is critical for policymakers trying to cool it without triggering a recession.</p><p>Here are some of the factors that will make payroll surprisingly strong:</p><p><b>The demand for workers remains high</b></p><p>As of the end of this year, there were more than 11 million jobs in the United States. At present, the market expects that the January JOLTs job openings in the United States announced on Wednesday are expected to show a slight slowdown in employment opportunities in January.<b>Vacancies are most visible in sectors such as leisure and hospitality and healthcare</b>, while other data shows manufacturers and small businesses are also struggling to fill the gaps.</p><p><b>With labour shortages so severe, businesses have been retaining workers in a practice known as'labour hoarding '</b>。 The Fed mentioned this at its last policy meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan said:</p><p>\"If the trend of labor hoarding continues, it could keep the labor market stronger in the cycle for a while, and it's really hard to pinpoint the timing of a slowdown.\"<b>Small scope of layoffs</b></p><p>Although the technology industry is making drastic layoffs, about 110,000 people were laid off from November to January last year alone,<b>But that's a fraction of a workforce of nearly 166 million</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists say,<b>This situation is also largely limited to companies that have expanded aggressively during the pandemic and have seen their stock prices fall significantly</b>。 They said in a report:</p><p>\"These characteristics suggest that companies doing layoffs are not representative of the economy as a whole, and many recent layoff announcements do not necessarily mean weaker hiring demand that could have a broader impact.\" The Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows,<b>Broader measures of layoffs in the broader economy remain below pre-pandemic levels</b>, but it has increased in the past year.<b>Claims for unemployment benefits remain low, at less than 200,000 for seven weeks.</b></p><p>That may be partly due to severance payments,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economist Daniel Silver estimated last month that according to their model, the number of unemployment claims should increase by about 50,000, but the progress of corporate layoffs may be delayed because of severance pay.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>Unemployed Americans Could Soon Be Poached by Other Companies, Too</b>。 Hiring rates (hiring relative to total employment) remain above the pre-pandemic average.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>Ryan expects the latest revised data released on Wednesday to make hiring rates look stronger.</p><p>It should be noted that employment returned to pre-pandemic levels in the middle of last year, so<b>It is natural that the pace of employment growth is slowing down</b>。 In addition, the Federal Reserve's rate hike may accelerate the trend of economic cooling. That's what the Fed is trying to design, which is to slow the pace of hiring to ease wage pressures and bring inflation down to its 2% target. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics said in a report last month:</p><p>\"If the breadth of redundancy announcements widens, or re-employment rates begin to decline rapidly, it will indicate that cracks are forming in the labor market.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107989&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cefea9bf585b43364836145fdefa6c19","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4588":"碎股","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107989&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317496400","content_text":"经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。美国非农就业人数增长已连续10个月超过市场预期，这是数十年来持续时间最长的一次。如果这一趋势继续延续下去，将加大美联储继续加息的压力。从去年4月开始，外媒对经济学家每次调查的预测中值都比政府公布的非农数据平均每月低10万人，这是外媒自1998年以来汇编的数据中差距最大的。对于周五公布的2月非农就业报告，市场预估为增加20万人，增幅约为1月的一半。经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。在经历了新冠疫情后，企业不愿意解雇他们辛辛苦苦雇用的员工。阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家Torsten Slok表示：“市场一直预期，在美联储加息的背景下，经济将放缓，但这种情况根本没有发生。”雇主们仍在努力填补数百万个空缺职位，初请失业金申请人数也处于历史最低水平。另一方面，一些行业正在裁员，美联储预计将在夏季继续加息，这可能会对需求造成更大压力，并有大幅放缓招聘的风险。目前，劳动力市场是美联储对抗通胀的最后几个障碍之一。稳定的就业机会创造和工资增长将使消费者保持消费，从而使价格持续上涨。对于那些试图在不引发衰退的情况下为通胀降温的政策制定者来说，理解通胀的轨迹至关重要。以下是会让就业人数出奇强劲的一些因素：对工人的需求仍大截至今年年底，美国就业机会超过1100万个，目前，市场预期周三公布的美国1月JOLTs职位空缺预计将显示1月份就业机会略微放缓。空缺最明显的是休闲和酒店以及医疗保健等行业，而其他数据显示，制造商和小企业也在努力填补空缺。由于劳动力短缺如此严重，企业一直在留住工人，这种做法被称为“劳动力囤积”。美联储在上次政策会议上提到了这一点。德意志银行高级美国经济学家Brett Ryan说：“如果劳动力囤积的趋势持续下去，它可能会让劳动力市场在周期中更强劲一段时间，真的很难确定经济放缓的时间。”裁员范围小虽然科技行业正大刀阔斧地进行裁员，仅从去年11月到1月就裁了有11万人左右，但这在近1.66亿劳动力中只是一小部分。高盛的经济学家说，这种情况在很大程度上也仅限于那些在疫情期间积极扩张、股价跌幅很大的公司。他们在一份报告中称：“这些特征表明，进行裁员的公司并不能代表整体经济，近期许多裁员公告并不一定意味着可能产生更广泛影响的招聘需求疲软。”美国劳工统计局的数据显示，整体经济中更广泛的裁员指标仍低于疫情前的水平，不过在过去一年有所上升。申请失业救济的人数仍然很低，连续7周不到20万人。其中，部分原因可能是遣散费，摩根大通经济学家Daniel Silver上个月估计，根据他们的模型，失业救济申请人数应增加约5万人，但因为遣散费，企业裁员的进度可能会推迟。此外，失业的美国人也可能很快被其他公司挖走。招聘率（招聘人数相对于总就业人数）仍然高于疫情前的平均水平。德意志银行的Ryan预计，周三公布的最新修正数据将使招聘率看起来更加强劲。需要注意的是，就业人数在去年年中就已恢复到疫情前的水平，因此就业人数增长的速度放缓是很自然的。此外，美联储的加息可能会加速经济降温的趋势。这就是美联储正在努力设计的，即减缓招聘步伐，以缓解工资压力，并使通胀降至2%的目标。牛津经济研究院的Ryan Sweet上月在一份报告中表示：“如果裁员公告的广度扩大，或者再就业率开始迅速下降，这将表明劳动力市场正在形成裂缝。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".IXIC":0.84,"DOG":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPY":0.84,"SDOW":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".DJI":0.84,"OEF":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2751,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}