To The Moon

Tesla missed its Q4 delivery numbers, total delivery was 405,278 below median consensus of 417,957.

Missed Delivery Guidance Significantly

In previous Q3 earning calls, tesla guided that they will grow slightly under 50% YoY expecting 1.5 million vehicles to be delivered in 2022. After the latest delivery numbers, tesla grew 40% YoY with 1.31 million vehicles delivered.

What is concerning is tesla missing the guidance significantly and hoping more information would be revealed during Q4 earning calls on why was there such a big miss.

Tesla Demand in China

Troy Teslike reported that there are 25,500 unsold model 3/Y in China might be a red flag on slowing demand. 

With China government subsidy just ended, Tesla is forced to give a price cut to cover the loss in subsidy and I wouldnt rule out further cuts to prop up demand in China. 

Recent reports of Tesla Shanghai halting production only adds to growing concern of Tesla demand in China slowing. 

Its not all doom and gloom 

With everyone yelling demand for Tesla has fallen off the cliff, we can't ignore that this is another record quarter for Tesla. In fact it has been a record 2022 across the board with record earnings, production and deliveries. 

We have to understand tesla is growing faster than any large cap company in history. 

Tesla having a CAGR of 60% since 2019 doesn't justify a 65% dropped in the share price in 2022.

Thoughts 

With many catalyst to look forward to such as FSD progress, enefery energy development and new giga factory, cybertruck production and other progress updates. I am excited and will be looking forward to Q4 earning calls and investor day 2023. 

Although demand and margin will be an issue moving on from now and the last thing we wanna see is tesla having to give further discounts on their cars. 

Ultimately I feel tesla will need to produce a $25,000 model to compete with the likes of BYD offering cheaper EV alternatives. 

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