To The Moon

• In the fourth quarter, the operating income was US $24.318 billion, up 37% year-on-year, refreshing the quarterly revenue set in the first quarter for the second consecutive quarter, Bloomberg's consensus expectation of $24.18 billion;
• The adjusted net profit in the fourth quarter was US $4.106 billion, setting a new high of US $3.318 billion in the first quarter, up 43% year-on-year, Bloomberg's consensus expectation of $3.98 billion;
• In the fourth quarter, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) under non-GAAP was US $1.19, up 40% year-on-year. Bloomberg's consensus expectation of $1.12;
• In the fourth quarter, the overall gross profit margin of the company under GAAP caliber was 23.8%, down 1.3 percentage points from 25.1% in the third quarter.
• In the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin of automobile business decreased by 2 percentage points from 27.9% in the third quarter to 25.9%.
• The free cash flow in the fourth quarter was US $1.42 billion, down 49% year-on-year. Bloomberg's consensus expectatio of $3.13 billion;
• Capital expenditure in the fourth quarter was US $1.86 billion, up 3% year-on-year. Bloomberg's consensus expectatio $1.9 billion.

Tesla 4Q  revenue beats estimates

The revenue for the fourth quarter was $24.318 billion, up 37% year over year. It exceeded Bloomberg's consensus forecast of $24.18 billion.Tesla produced more than 439,000 vehicles and delivered more than 405,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. In 2022, vehicle delivery increased by 40% year-on-year to 1.31 million vehicles, and output increased by 47% year-on-year.Though the delivery data is known, it is very difficult to predict Tesla's financial report this time around.

Why? The main reason is that frequent price cuts increase the uncertainty associated with automobile revenue forecasts. Check out the charts below.

According to the latest data, the automobile sales revenue in the fourth quarter was 20.2 billion, and according to the delivery of 405,000, the average selling price (ASP) directly dived from 55,000 US dollars to 50,000 US dollars, which should be regarded as a new low in recent years.

The business that drives Tesla's financial report to exceed expectations mainly comes from carbon credit revenue and energy storage business. Among them, $467 million came from regulatory credits in the fourth quarter of 2022, up 48% year-on-year and 63% quarter-on-quarter.

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The energy business is also bright, with revenue from the energy sector reaching a new high of US $1.31 billion. In the third quarter, the installed capacity of solar panels reached 100 MW, slightly lower than the single-quarter record of 106 MW set in the second quarter, and still maintained the leading position in the US industry. In the third quarter, Tesla deployed 2.5 GWH of energy reserves, a new high in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 152%.

Frequent price cuts, gross profit less than expected

In the fourth quarter, the overall gross profit margin of the company under GAAP caliber was 23.8%, down 360bp from 25.1% in the third quarter, which was lower than analysts' expectation and rose to 25.4%; Gross profit margin of auto business decreased to 25.9% in the fourth quarter from 27.9% in the third quarter, which was lower than analysts expected to rise to 28.4% month-on-month.

Tesla explained that it was affected by the forex. According to Tesla's financial report data, Tesla said that the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on revenue reached 1.4 billion US dollars and the impact on profits reached 300 million US dollars. However, for those who are familiar with Tesla's business, I believe they are not surprised by the data this time. After all, the price war will reduce the gross profit to a certain extent.

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Tesla maintains an annual growth rate of 50%

Looking at Tesla's telephone conference, the focus is actually on growth,

Tesla did not issue new delivery and revenue guidelines, but reiterated its delivery targets several times at the financial report meeting. "We plan to increase production as soon as possible to meet the 50pc compound annual growth target we have set since the start of 2021.

In a conference call with shareholders and analysts on Wednesday, Elon Musk said, "Since January this year, we have seen the strongest orders ever. The number of orders we are seeing at present is almost twice the productivity."

Elon Musk said that by 2023, the internal production potential will be close to 2 million vehicles, and if there are no external interference factors, the sales and production will reach 2 million vehicles

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Is Tesla worth buying?

The share price of Tesla has fallen by 34% since the last financial report, even approaching halving at one point. So is Tesla still worth investing in at this time?

As Tesla's valuation has always been relatively high, friends who pay attention to Tesla should take note of Tesla's delivery guidelines more closely, as Tesla's price-earnings ratio of 40 times is much higher than that of traditional automobile enterprises and significantly higher than the industry average of 12.4.

All valuations of Tesla arebased on the valuation of growth stocks. When it comes to the valuation of growth stocks, everyone will be more inclined to value them at a premium. Consequently,investors paygreaterattention to Tesla's delivery and guidance. Tesla's current share price is not expensive based on its target annual growth rate of 50%.

The selling pressure on stocks has narrowed further following the completion of Twitter's acquisition. Despite the fact that Tesla's brand value has been affected to a considerable extent by the price reduction. Tesla's profit cycle has been delayed. However, this move is sensible when we consider the economic situation next year and the lengthening of the timeline.

In general, this financial report is mixed. Tesla's investment is mainly based on confidence. Confidence that the 50% target will be achieved.

Is Tesla a company you have confidence in? What is your opinion of Tesla? Please feel free to leave me a message and share your thoughts on Tesla. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$