To The Moon

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ 

Globally, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  leads all others, selling 936,000 units in 2021 (giving the company a market share of ~14%). Close behind was the Volkswagen Group (11%), BYD (9%), GM (7.6%) etc.

Although China has the biggest market for EVs at 34%, there's price war among the different EVs and you can see that most of the China's EV companies are not making significant progress in their car deliveries. Taking XPeng as an example, since hitting the peak of 16k car deliveries in Dec 2021, the number has been decreasing and mostly remained stagnant at around 10k.

For Q3 22, Xpeng delivered

Jul22 - 11,524 cars

Aug22 - 9,578 cars

Sep22 - 8,468 cars

Clearly, it's a challenging to scale up the car deliveries exponentially. Since the peak deliveries of 16k in Dec 2021, the monthly car delivery is on a downtrend. Furthermore, the competition in the EV market has intensified as numerous traditional car markers (Mercedes-Benz, BMW etc) are also investing and building more EV units. Hence, I think the downside will be more for China EV companies (such as XPeng, Nio and Li Auto). The price of raw material for EV battery, lithium, has been soaring to new highs! The price war with Telsa would also lead to lower profit margin! With increasing interest rate hikes, I doubt people would be splashing more money to buy new cars!!

The outlook for $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$  Q4 delivery is only at 20k. It's insignificant as compared to Tesla's 300+k per quarter and Ford's 100+k EV per quarter.

Furthermore, Elon Musk has been cashing out from his Tesla positions at $200+ (it's hovering around $100 now!!) while Warren Buffett has been trimming his stake in BYD recently!! What do you think? Let me know your thoughts!!

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