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impervious
2022-12-02

Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.

Palantir: This Is Ridiculous

It seems like Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is once again surrounded by fear, uncertainty and doubt. One of i

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9965228622,"tweetId":"9965228622","gmtCreate":1669964606567,"gmtModify":1676538279524,"author":{"id":3586166221963075,"authorId":3586166221963075,"authorIdStr":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.</p></body></html>","text":"Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965228622","repostId":2288960327,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2288960327","pubTimestamp":1669956916,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2288960327?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-02 12:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: This Is Ridiculous","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288960327","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"It seems like Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is once again surrounded by fear, uncertainty and doubt. One of i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/634e2ce29264d31e7def366b057723ba\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>It seems like Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is once again surrounded by fear, uncertainty and doubt. One of its investees and customer, Fast Radius, went bankrupt earlier this month and investors are pondering about the fate of Palantir&#39;s other portfolio companies. In light of this new risk factor, certain bears argue that Palantir&#39;s stock can plummet to $5 per share in the coming year. While this seems like a logical argument, it leaves a lot to be addressed even still. In this article, I&#39;ll attempt to explain why the on the ground reality isn&#39;t as dismal and why Palantir amounts to a buying opportunity on dips.</p><h2><b>The Bear Case</b></h2><p>There&#39;s no denying that we&#39;re in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Rampant inflation and aggressive rate hikes by the Fed are weighing down on the margin profiles and hampering the growth rates of nearly all companies. While most companies are running lean by cutting back on discretionary spending, the unlucky few are succumbing to the liquidity crunch and are starting to go bankrupt. This is where Palantir comes in.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s top brass made investments in nearly two dozen privately held and public companies. Some of these investees would then sign master agreements with Palantir, that would typically be worth more than the investment in the first place, for using the latter&#39;s software. I won&#39;t comment whether that&#39;s coercion or a smart business move on the investee&#39;s part, and invite readers to share their thoughts on the same. But as far as Palantir is concerned, this deal structure made a lot of financial sense.</p><p>Fast forward to November 2022 and one of Palantir&#39;s investees in particular, Fast Radius, went bankrupt. Fast Radius had signed a $45 million contract with Palantir that would be spread out over a 6-year time frame and, in exchange, Palantir had invested $20 million in the company. But with Fast Radius filing for bankruptcy, Palantir&#39;s investment in the company and its average annualized revenue contribution of roughly $7.5 million are likely now worthless.</p><p>The bear case is that more of Palantir&#39;s investees could go bankrupt given the challenging macroeconomic environment. This would not only erode Palantir&#39;s initial investment in them, but would also hurt its revenue pipeline and eliminate any cash distributions that might otherwise originate from these investees in the future. As it is, Palantir&#39;s portfolio is doing poorly and a liquidity crunch could further push these companies on the brink of bankruptcy. So, it&#39;s understandable why Palantir&#39;s investors are panicking.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/11/30/4893391-16698051258633738.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p></p><h2><b>The Ground Reality</b></h2><p>I would like to first clarify that the bear case is entirely speculative in nature and there is absolutely zero evidence to support the claim that more of Palantir&#39;s portfolio companies will go bankrupt in the next 12 months. It has been a tough year so far and shares of technology companies have been hammered down across the globe, but that does not necessarily mean a broad swath of these companies will go out of business. I&#39;d argue that if the macroeconomic environment were to deteriorate as much as the bears believe, then its fallout will be felt globally and it&#39;d trigger mass bankruptcies for a lot many listed companies, regardless of whether Palantir has invested in them or not. So, I view this bear case as fearmongering at best.</p><p>Secondly, note that Palantir&#39;s revenue from its investee companies amounted to just 5.9% of its total revenue last quarter. The chart below indicates that this figure is relatively lower than the peak figure of 8.8% two quarters ago. Also, note how the revenue generated from these investee firms has dropped $28.1 million last quarter, dropping for 2 quarters straight. The point that I&#39;m trying to make here is that even if all the investee companies went bankrupt at once, like the extreme bear case suggests, even then Palantir&#39;s revenue would likely drop by 6% at worst. So, the ground reality isn&#39;t as dire for Palantir, as some commenters are making it out to be.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/11/30/4893391-16698063238797498.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p></p><p>Third, bears are arguing that Palantir&#39;s shares will be worth $5 to factor in light of this bankruptcy risk but I feel this number has been pulled out of thin air. Palantir&#39;s shares opened at $8.44 apiece on November 14, before these bankruptcy-related fears had sunk in. Since then, the stock is down nearly 17% and its market cap is down roughly $3 billion. If the stock were to plunge to $5 apiece as the bears are projecting, then it would equate to a market cap erosion of $7.3 billion since November 14.</p><p>For a maximum quarterly revenue loss of roughly $28.1 million, or annualized revenue loss of $112 million, expecting a market cap erosion of $7.3 billion is an overtly bearish projection. It implies that Palantir&#39;s market cap will drop 60-times the lost investee revenue, which is absurd given the stock is currently trading at 8-times its trailing twelve-month revenue.</p><p>To put it in another way, the complete erosion of $112 million worth of annualized investee revenue should lead to a market cap erosion of $896 million at Palantir&#39;s currently prevalent 8-times Price-to-Sales (or P/S) multiple, but the bears are rooting for $7.3 billion worth of market cap destruction at a 60-times multiple instead. This seems like a gross miscalculation or an extreme exaggeration in the prevalent bear case.</p><p>Lastly, Palantir&#39;s marketable securities amounted to just $57.3 million as on September 30, 2022 per its latest 10Q filing. This relatively miniscule figure doesn&#39;t contribute much towards justifying the $7.3 billion worth of market cap erosion either.</p><h2><b>Final Thoughts</b></h2><p>The takeaway here is that the bear case is unlikely to materialize anytime soon. It exaggerates the bankruptcy risk for Palantir&#39;s investees and the stock is unlikely to drop down to $5 apiece because of it.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f4391584292811018188c05d439471f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p></p><p>It&#39;s important to note that Palantir&#39;s shares are trading at 8-times the company&#39;s trailing twelve month sales which is quite attractive when looking at industry comparables. There are several other software companies that are growing just as fast as Palantir, or slower, but trading at even higher multiples. So, I argue that Palantir&#39;s shares are attractively valued at current levels. Investors with a multi-year time horizon can consider accumulating Palantir&#39;s shares should it drop significantly and abruptly in coming weeks. As far as I&#39;m concerned, I remain bullish on Palantir (as outlined here and here). Good Luck!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: This Is Ridiculous</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: This Is Ridiculous\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-02 12:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561548-palantir-this-is-ridiculous><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It seems like Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is once again surrounded by fear, uncertainty and doubt. One of its investees and customer, Fast Radius, went bankrupt earlier this month and investors are pondering...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561548-palantir-this-is-ridiculous\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561548-palantir-this-is-ridiculous","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2288960327","content_text":"It seems like Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is once again surrounded by fear, uncertainty and doubt. One of its investees and customer, Fast Radius, went bankrupt earlier this month and investors are pondering about the fate of Palantir's other portfolio companies. In light of this new risk factor, certain bears argue that Palantir's stock can plummet to $5 per share in the coming year. While this seems like a logical argument, it leaves a lot to be addressed even still. In this article, I'll attempt to explain why the on the ground reality isn't as dismal and why Palantir amounts to a buying opportunity on dips.The Bear CaseThere's no denying that we're in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Rampant inflation and aggressive rate hikes by the Fed are weighing down on the margin profiles and hampering the growth rates of nearly all companies. While most companies are running lean by cutting back on discretionary spending, the unlucky few are succumbing to the liquidity crunch and are starting to go bankrupt. This is where Palantir comes in.Palantir's top brass made investments in nearly two dozen privately held and public companies. Some of these investees would then sign master agreements with Palantir, that would typically be worth more than the investment in the first place, for using the latter's software. I won't comment whether that's coercion or a smart business move on the investee's part, and invite readers to share their thoughts on the same. But as far as Palantir is concerned, this deal structure made a lot of financial sense.Fast forward to November 2022 and one of Palantir's investees in particular, Fast Radius, went bankrupt. Fast Radius had signed a $45 million contract with Palantir that would be spread out over a 6-year time frame and, in exchange, Palantir had invested $20 million in the company. But with Fast Radius filing for bankruptcy, Palantir's investment in the company and its average annualized revenue contribution of roughly $7.5 million are likely now worthless.The bear case is that more of Palantir's investees could go bankrupt given the challenging macroeconomic environment. This would not only erode Palantir's initial investment in them, but would also hurt its revenue pipeline and eliminate any cash distributions that might otherwise originate from these investees in the future. As it is, Palantir's portfolio is doing poorly and a liquidity crunch could further push these companies on the brink of bankruptcy. So, it's understandable why Palantir's investors are panicking.BusinessQuant.comThe Ground RealityI would like to first clarify that the bear case is entirely speculative in nature and there is absolutely zero evidence to support the claim that more of Palantir's portfolio companies will go bankrupt in the next 12 months. It has been a tough year so far and shares of technology companies have been hammered down across the globe, but that does not necessarily mean a broad swath of these companies will go out of business. I'd argue that if the macroeconomic environment were to deteriorate as much as the bears believe, then its fallout will be felt globally and it'd trigger mass bankruptcies for a lot many listed companies, regardless of whether Palantir has invested in them or not. So, I view this bear case as fearmongering at best.Secondly, note that Palantir's revenue from its investee companies amounted to just 5.9% of its total revenue last quarter. The chart below indicates that this figure is relatively lower than the peak figure of 8.8% two quarters ago. Also, note how the revenue generated from these investee firms has dropped $28.1 million last quarter, dropping for 2 quarters straight. The point that I'm trying to make here is that even if all the investee companies went bankrupt at once, like the extreme bear case suggests, even then Palantir's revenue would likely drop by 6% at worst. So, the ground reality isn't as dire for Palantir, as some commenters are making it out to be.BusinessQuant.comThird, bears are arguing that Palantir's shares will be worth $5 to factor in light of this bankruptcy risk but I feel this number has been pulled out of thin air. Palantir's shares opened at $8.44 apiece on November 14, before these bankruptcy-related fears had sunk in. Since then, the stock is down nearly 17% and its market cap is down roughly $3 billion. If the stock were to plunge to $5 apiece as the bears are projecting, then it would equate to a market cap erosion of $7.3 billion since November 14.For a maximum quarterly revenue loss of roughly $28.1 million, or annualized revenue loss of $112 million, expecting a market cap erosion of $7.3 billion is an overtly bearish projection. It implies that Palantir's market cap will drop 60-times the lost investee revenue, which is absurd given the stock is currently trading at 8-times its trailing twelve-month revenue.To put it in another way, the complete erosion of $112 million worth of annualized investee revenue should lead to a market cap erosion of $896 million at Palantir's currently prevalent 8-times Price-to-Sales (or P/S) multiple, but the bears are rooting for $7.3 billion worth of market cap destruction at a 60-times multiple instead. This seems like a gross miscalculation or an extreme exaggeration in the prevalent bear case.Lastly, Palantir's marketable securities amounted to just $57.3 million as on September 30, 2022 per its latest 10Q filing. This relatively miniscule figure doesn't contribute much towards justifying the $7.3 billion worth of market cap erosion either.Final ThoughtsThe takeaway here is that the bear case is unlikely to materialize anytime soon. It exaggerates the bankruptcy risk for Palantir's investees and the stock is unlikely to drop down to $5 apiece because of it.BusinessQuant.comIt's important to note that Palantir's shares are trading at 8-times the company's trailing twelve month sales which is quite attractive when looking at industry comparables. There are several other software companies that are growing just as fast as Palantir, or slower, but trading at even higher multiples. So, I argue that Palantir's shares are attractively valued at current levels. Investors with a multi-year time horizon can consider accumulating Palantir's shares should it drop significantly and abruptly in coming weeks. As far as I'm concerned, I remain bullish on Palantir (as outlined here and here). Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":73,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}