For MARA longs, you only need to ask Fred Thiel one simple question, if he can give you a straight answer and the answer is satisfactory, you can long;
1) Balance sheet is straightforward, they owe $800+ million, and total bitcoin worth $180 million, therefore, a hole of $620 million
2) In the past, they pitched their advantage, the low mining cost, now, during a recent interview, Fred Thiel dodged the questions, and referred to some websites (i checked and not able to find out) that supposedly publish mining costs for all miners. Basically, he does not want to tell you!!! He is a liar!
So, all boils down to the question, on a monthly basis, per bitcoin production, how much they can earn?
if it is negative, you can forget about this company period.
if it is positive, how much money per coin, let us say, using $16,500 bitcoin price, they can make $3,000 mining per bitcoin, even assuming no administration costs, etc. net net, annual profit is ONLY $80 million assuming full production capacity at 23 hash rate. That would take 8 full years to repay the debt, not to mention the interest costs, halving (meaning production level will drop in half) ....
In sum, even if $3000/per coin, 0 operation and ramping up issue, no halving, it will be EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO REPAY THE FULL DEBT. You know what, i can bet money to tell you, they can not make $3000 per coin !
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