hi
A higher chance of shallower recession
@traderfirstyear：
Quick off the cuff thoughts on why there may be a higher chance of much shallower recession then originally imagined. Have not rerun the numbers but good gut feeling right now. $SPY(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $TLT(TLT)$ $DIA(DIA)$ My estimates were way under on the pace of job growth. They were also off on the pace at which people would return to the laborforce increasing the size of the labor pool. Nominal growth in Q3 this year 7% (rounded.) lt will take more time then linitially assumed. These are all good things. The pace of Nominal growth nearing 3% or less pushes us under long term Nominal growth potential. If inflation comes down more rapidly we will likely seea positive im pact on real gdp, so paying attention to the pace at which inflation falls and the Nominal pace of growth decelerating in the US economy could lead to an extremely shallow recession in 2023. Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
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