On your point on singaporeans who sold their cars and turn to grab, you have to understand that Grab’s mobility business is also highly dependent on the supply of drivers. With such a high COE price rising every month, I cant imagine Grab’s mobility business can secure more sustainable growth if driver supply cannot keep up. Also, there are now new entrants to this ride hailing market - ryde, tata, gojek. Singaporeans are very price senstive, we will just go to the cheapest platform.
Delivery is worse. Rev growth comes via higher take rate at the expense of falling GMV. The CEO called it “focus on high-quality GMV” which is just fluff to me.
Valuation not cheap either, compared to successful peers such as Uber and Meituan who already display flywheel effect. I dont feel safe for u even at 3.30. Take care!
Newbie's Blog: Grab and My Thoughts
@Jo Tan：
It's been a while since I parted with my$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ stocks at $3.38. At that time, I felt that Grab was not improving and seized the opportunity to sell it near its peak (I believe that it's peak was at $3.50 this month). Its price felt heavily manipulated and didn't seem to go up when the market did. As a disclaimer, although that was its action on the S&P500, perhaps it was very much aligned with the Asian markets, which haven't been doing very well. On 20 Jun, Grab announced that they were laying off 11% of their staff. This works out to be around 1000 people in Singapore. He explained that unlike what was reported, this move was not to bow to pressure to achieve profitability this year, but more to continue changing Grab's business model to better suit today's business landscape, which was evolving rapidly, because of factors like artificial intelligence. He also claimed that Grab would have hit profitability even without the cuts. While I do believe him, I think that Grab at its current price is still too high. As a strategy until it reaches profitability, I will only continue to invest when it reaches for below $3.30. Last night, when the price rose premarket to $3.65, I did not bite the bait, nor did other investors as the price promptly fell to $3.34, with the dust settling at around $3.38. This shows that Grab must work for its credibility again. Its performance is very much uncertain and it has a lot to prove. Like Sea, which recently achieved profitability, it has also now fallen from grace, presumably because of the weak Asian economy now. In the long run, as the cost of living rises, I expect that more consumers will turns to public transport and use Grab less. However, in Singapore, Grab may continue to have a bit of advantage from consumers who have just sold their cars but do not want to take buses or trains. This makes Grab viable. In terms of food delivery, well, I am also a bit concerned as food becomes more expensive, I am not sure whether consumers will still use Grab or just buy it themselves. These are the challenges ahead for Grab. I expect the price to drop further but I will not dismiss it as a business opportunity. @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion
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Ah, the Singaporean car-selling spree! Grab's success depends on a supply of drivers, but with COE prices soaring, they might be grabbing for solutions. Hang in there
New entrants in the ride-hailing market? Well, it's a competition ride and everyone's looking for the cheapest fare. Grab better buckle up
I feel you on the Grab bearishness, but let's hope they don't end up grabbing the short end of the stick
Well Grab may have great potentials but listing in the US is hard
I am just not very confident about GRAB either tbh