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Iris俊
2022-11-01

Wall Street builds momentum in unison, JPMorgan: rate hike cycle will end in early 2023

这一次，美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗？

Wall Street builds momentum in unison, JPMorgan: rate hike cycle will end in early 2023

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9985995813,"tweetId":"9985995813","gmtCreate":1667286017932,"gmtModify":1676537891512,"author":{"id":3568795433177386,"idStr":"3568795433177386","authorId":3568795433177386,"authorIdStr":"3568795433177386","name":"Iris俊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ec47da6583a1a9119da0bac90adb70","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":28,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>K</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>K</body></html>","text":"K","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985995813","repostId":1177705687,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177705687","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667263743,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177705687?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-01 08:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street builds momentum in unison, JPMorgan: rate hike cycle will end in early 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177705687","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这一次，美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗？","content":"<html><head></head><body>This time, will U.S. stocks still be doused by hawkish central banks? A growing number of Wall Street analysts have joined the ranks of those who think the Fed is about to pivot.This week, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists including the Fed said in the report that the Fed's rate hike campaign is coming to an end.Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, once one of the biggest bearish analysts on Wall Street, said in a report on Monday that indicators including the rebound in U.S. stocks and the inversion of the 10-year and 3-month Treasury Bond yield curves \"all support the Fed to adjust policy as soon as possible, not delay it\":Near the end of the cycle, (rebounding) this kind of price action is not unusual, especially as the Fed's tightening action draws to a close, (therefore) we think the Fed is nearing the end. Therefore, this week's Fed meeting is crucial to the continuation, suspension or even complete end of the rate hike.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f02737c23a5a2f650c93c74b07298a0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On the other hand, Marko Kolanovic, chief strategist of JPMorgan Chase, also predicted in this week's report that the Federal Reserve may suspend rate hike after rate hike of 50 basis points in December and rate hike of 25 basis points in the first quarter of next year:The ECB's shift in attitude, the easing of fiscal pressures in the UK and the slowing pace of Canadian and Australian rate hike have reinforced optimism that we believe the global tightening cycle could end in early 2023. An important support for risk markets comes from signals that the pace of tightening by the Federal Reserve has peaked, and any further rate hike thereafter is likely to be smaller. Unlike Wilson, Kolanovic has previously been one of the largest long analysts on Wall Street.But now, the views of \"big bears\" and \"big bulls\" are beginning to unify.However, these strategists also said that easing the pace of tightening does not mean that global central banks will ease their efforts to fight inflation.To achieve loosening of austerity, it is necessary for consumer price pressures to continue to decline.Simon White, a macro strategist at Bloomberg, pointed out that the global CPI diffusion index is currently at its highest value, which reflects the proportion of countries with global inflation on an upward trend. It only reached this level twice in 1974 and 2008, and quickly started to decline after reaching it.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac8cd063cb08ad5e8f2df02e1fa4aef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Now, the eyes of the market will be on the Federal Reserve.The market generally expects the Fed to make a fourth 75 basis point rate hike on Wednesday, and the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also be crucial to the market's future direction.In the past two weeks, the dismal performance of large U.S. technology stocks caused the S&P 500 index to fall 17% and the Nasdaq to fall nearly 22%. However, as analysts predicted that the Federal Reserve was about to turn, U.S. stocks rebounded.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategists believe that a possible slowdown in the pace of Fed tightening, lighter positions and expectations of strong seasonal factors in the fourth quarter are the reasons behind the rebound in U.S. stocks in recent weeks.In 17 bear market rallies since 1970, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 15% in 44 days. However, every time the U.S. stock market ignited hope before, it was eventually doused by the hawkish central bank. What about this time?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b00ff4a8809dfd3061b2ab28faaa769a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street builds momentum in unison, JPMorgan: rate hike cycle will end in early 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street builds momentum in unison, JPMorgan: rate hike cycle will end in early 2023\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-11-01 08:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>This time, will U.S. stocks still be doused by hawkish central banks? A growing number of Wall Street analysts have joined the ranks of those who think the Fed is about to pivot.This week, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists including the Fed said in the report that the Fed's rate hike campaign is coming to an end.Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, once one of the biggest bearish analysts on Wall Street, said in a report on Monday that indicators including the rebound in U.S. stocks and the inversion of the 10-year and 3-month Treasury Bond yield curves \"all support the Fed to adjust policy as soon as possible, not delay it\":Near the end of the cycle, (rebounding) this kind of price action is not unusual, especially as the Fed's tightening action draws to a close, (therefore) we think the Fed is nearing the end. Therefore, this week's Fed meeting is crucial to the continuation, suspension or even complete end of the rate hike.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f02737c23a5a2f650c93c74b07298a0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On the other hand, Marko Kolanovic, chief strategist of JPMorgan Chase, also predicted in this week's report that the Federal Reserve may suspend rate hike after rate hike of 50 basis points in December and rate hike of 25 basis points in the first quarter of next year:The ECB's shift in attitude, the easing of fiscal pressures in the UK and the slowing pace of Canadian and Australian rate hike have reinforced optimism that we believe the global tightening cycle could end in early 2023. An important support for risk markets comes from signals that the pace of tightening by the Federal Reserve has peaked, and any further rate hike thereafter is likely to be smaller. Unlike Wilson, Kolanovic has previously been one of the largest long analysts on Wall Street.But now, the views of \"big bears\" and \"big bulls\" are beginning to unify.However, these strategists also said that easing the pace of tightening does not mean that global central banks will ease their efforts to fight inflation.To achieve loosening of austerity, it is necessary for consumer price pressures to continue to decline.Simon White, a macro strategist at Bloomberg, pointed out that the global CPI diffusion index is currently at its highest value, which reflects the proportion of countries with global inflation on an upward trend. It only reached this level twice in 1974 and 2008, and quickly started to decline after reaching it.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac8cd063cb08ad5e8f2df02e1fa4aef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Now, the eyes of the market will be on the Federal Reserve.The market generally expects the Fed to make a fourth 75 basis point rate hike on Wednesday, and the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also be crucial to the market's future direction.In the past two weeks, the dismal performance of large U.S. technology stocks caused the S&P 500 index to fall 17% and the Nasdaq to fall nearly 22%. However, as analysts predicted that the Federal Reserve was about to turn, U.S. stocks rebounded.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategists believe that a possible slowdown in the pace of Fed tightening, lighter positions and expectations of strong seasonal factors in the fourth quarter are the reasons behind the rebound in U.S. stocks in recent weeks.In 17 bear market rallies since 1970, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 15% in 44 days. However, every time the U.S. stock market ignited hope before, it was eventually doused by the hawkish central bank. What about this time?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b00ff4a8809dfd3061b2ab28faaa769a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673760\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673760","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177705687","content_text":"这一次，美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗？越来越多的华尔街分析师加入了认为美联储即将转向的队伍。本周，包括摩根士丹利和摩根大通在内的策略分析师都在报告中表示，美联储的加息行动即将结束。曾经作为华尔街最大看跌分析师之一的摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson在周一的报告中表示，包括美股反弹、10年期和3个月期国债收益率曲线倒挂在内的指标“都支持美联储尽早调整政策，而不是推迟”：在周期接近尾声时，（反弹）这种价格走势并不罕见，特别是在美联储收紧政策行动接近尾声之际，（因此）我们认为美联储正在接近尾声。因此，本周的美联储会议对加息的继续、暂停甚至完全结束至关重要。另一边，摩根大通首席策略师Marko Kolanovic也在本周的报告中预计，美联储可能会在12月加息50基点，在明年一季度再加息25基点后暂停加息：欧洲央行态度的转变、英国财政压力的缓解以及加拿大和澳大利亚加息步伐的放缓，增强了人们的乐观情绪，我们认为全球紧缩周期可能在2023年初结束。风险市场的一个重要支撑来自以下信号：美联储的收紧步伐已见顶，此后任何进一步加息的规模可能都将变小。与Wilson不同的是，Kolanovic此前一直是华尔街最大的多头分析师之一。但现在，“大空头”与“大多头”观点开始统一。不过，这些策略师也表示，放松紧缩步伐并不意味着全球央行将放松对抗通胀的力度。要实现放松紧缩，就需要消费者的价格压力继续下降。彭博宏观策略师Simon White指出，目前全球CPI扩散指数处于最高值，该指数反映了全球通胀处于上升趋势的国家的比例，而此前仅在1974年和2008年两次达到该水平，并且达到后迅速开始下降。现在，市场的目光都将集中在美联储身上。市场普遍预计美联储将在本周三第四次加息75基点，而美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话也将对市场之后的走向至关重要。过去两周，美国大型科技股的惨淡业绩使得标普500指数一度跌17%，纳指跌近22%，但随着之后分析师们预测美联储即将转向，美股出现反弹。高盛策略师认为，美联储收紧步伐可能放缓、仓位较轻以及对第四季度季节性因素强劲的预期是最近几周美股反弹的背后原因。在1970年以来的17次熊市反弹中，标准普尔500指数在44天内平均上涨了15%。然而，此前美股每次燃起希望，最终都被鹰派央行所浇灭，这一次呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}