To The Moon

NIO: Delisting, Supply Constraints, And A Faltering Chinese Economy Aug. 17, 2022 8:10 AM ETNIO Inc. (NIO), NIOIF32 Comments9 Likes ‌$NIO Inc.(NIO)$‌ Summary NIO has been trading range-bound at the $20-level in recent months following a brief surge in easing COVID disruptions in China. While its fundamentals remain resilient, its valuation outlook continues to be constrained by risks pertaining to a potential delisting from the NYSE, ongoing supply constraints, and an unravelling Chinese economy. The following analysis will explore the different risks weighing on the "fundamental" and "multiple" factors that drive NIO's valuation prospects, as well as their related implications. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Livy Investment Research. Learn More » NIO ES6 electric SUV semi-autonomous car near company office Michael Vi The NIO stock (NYSE:‌$NIO Inc.(NIO)$‌) has been range-bound at the $20-level in recent months after the run-up through June on accelerating production and delivery ramp-up improvements as China's monthslong COVID disruptions to supply chains started to ease. Other positive catalysts that have supported the stock in its current $20-range after its climb from an all-time low in the $10-range in mid-May include favourable policy support from the central and municipal Chinese governments on shoring up electric vehicle ("EV") adoption in the region, as well as NIO's aggressive growth plans such as the upcoming introduction of new sub-brands to better penetrate mass market opportunities. Yet, ongoing weakness in economic sentiment spanning a worsening domestic property slump and slowing consumption in China, as well as the fluid COVID situation remain prominent risks weighing on the NIO stock's near-term performance. The recent slew of voluntary exits from U.S. exchanges by state-backed companies have also renewed concerns of delisting risks stemming from the "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act" ("HFCAA") enforced by the U.S. SEC. Heading into NIO's second quarter earnings call, the key focus area beyond its production and delivery ramp-up efforts is where the Chinese EV maker stands when it comes to managing regulatory risks, as well as how it will fare within the increasingly competitive landscape while broader macro uncertainties continue to worsen. On one hand, NIO's progress in ramping up volumes - a key focus area for most automakers within the industry's supply-driven operational environment - will be a core driver of the "fundamental" factor weighing on its valuation prospects. Meanwhile, on the other hand, NIO's position amid mounting regulatory risks and broad-based market uncertainties will determine the "multiple" factor weighing on its valuation prospects. The following analysis will explore both perspectives and their related implications on the NIO stock's outlook. We continue to caution regulatory risks as the largest factor that has been capping the stock's ability in unlocking its true valuation upsides, despite continued demonstration of resilient fundamentals from the underlying business. 2Q22 and July'22 Production and Deliveries As previously discussed in our most recent coverage on the stock, NIO's record-setting deliveries during the second quarter, especially in June, continues to underscore its impressive strength in re-ramping productions as the worst of supply and logistics constraints resulting from recent COVID restrictions in core Chinese manufacturing hubs start to ease. Specifically, productions of the newest ET7 sedan, which began in March, was a highlight with 40x growth during the second quarter. Despite a slight setback in July due to limited supply of casting parts used in the production of its ET7 sedans, NIO has maintained momentum in ramping up productions with 2,473 units of the premium electric sedans delivered in the first month of 3Q22. This represents a delivery run-rate of at least 7,400 units of the ET7 in the current quarter (approx. +10% q/q), especially given its ongoing efforts in "working closely with supply chain partners [to] accelerate vehicle production in the following months of the third quarter of 2022". The positive results continue to underscore NIO's strength in navigating through unprecedented disruptions from supply chain bottlenecks across the auto industry. Key Focus Areas Weighing on NIO's Fundamentals Looking ahead, NIO is expected to post an even stronger second half of the year, with the introduction of a strong product pipeline that adds the newest ES7 SUV to its sales mix later this month, alongside updated 2022 ES8, ES6 and EC6 SUVs. Favourable policy support in China will also continue to be a boon to NIO's operational performance in the second half of the year. 1. Near- to Medium-Term Focus Specifically, from a fundamental perspective, the key focus area remains on NIO's ability to ramp up productions and deliveries within the supply-driven auto industry as mentioned in the earlier section (see deeper dive here). The lack of supplies and lingering logistics constraints from pandemic-era disruptions have upended the auto industry over the past year, especially for Chinese OEMs due to the region's strict COVID Zero policy which remain a pronounced downside risk for NIO. This is further corroborated by the Chinese EV maker's struggle with supply shortages in July that have impacted its ET7 sedan and EC6 SUV volumes per its latest delivery update, highlighting how NIO's production and delivery progress have largely been determined by "supply availability" over the past year. Investors will remain focused on updates regarding NIO's working relationship with suppliers at the EV maker's upcoming earnings call to gauge whether production can accelerate through the third quarter and the remainder of the year as management had promised. Another key focus area remains on whether any positive progress has been made since NIO's July delivery update press release, which in our view would imply improving fundamentals, lifting the stock from its current range-bound situation. 2. Longer-Term Focus Over the longer-term, NIO's progress on growing its market share through globalization, and primarily, domestic expansion with newly planned sub-brands to better penetrate mass market opportunities will be the core piece in bolstering its fundamental performance. China remains the largest EV market, underscoring NIO's growth opportunities ahead as it works to extend its reach beyond the premium market. Specifically, China is expected to sell a new record of at least 6 million EVs by the end of the year, which would be double of the 3 million EVs sold in 2021. In July, China's EV sales represented more than a quarter of total new car registrations, underscoring the rapid rebound in demand following stringent COVID mobility restrictions in the preceding months. This continues to serve favourable tailwinds for domestic EV makers like NIO, which currently represent close to a fifth of China's EV sales, and growing. The statistics also validate current market observations of no material demand destruction observed across the Chinese EV market despite the recent economic slowdown, underscoring the industry's resilience and sustained growth as supply constraints - the primarily roadblock to further expansion - continue to ease. To better penetrate the growing domestic opportunities, NIO has been diversifying its portfolio of premium offerings to address demand across various price and vehicle segments, as observed through its recent introduction of newly designed mid-sized SUVs, as well as premium sedans. More importantly, NIO's upcoming launch of new lower-priced sub-brands focused on the mass market will further its fundamental growth over the longer-term. As discussed in detail in one of our previous coverages, NIO's introduction of a new sub-brand priced in the range of RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000) will be critical in extending its reach beyond the premium EV market in China: Pertaining to NIO's new mass market brand, which was first mentioned in August 2021, the Chinese EV maker confirmed that it has entered into a "strategic cooperation agreement with Hefei on the second phase of vehicle production plant and the facilities for key components at NeoPark" in early May. However, specific details over the product pipeline and related pricing remain uncertain. To date, NIO has only disclosed that the new sub-brand will be a direct competition to Tesla's best-selling Model 3 and Model Y in China, but at a 10% discount in the RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000) price range. Source: "EV Roundup: Everything from Tesla to NIO, U.S. to China" Start of productions and customer deliveries on the sub-brand offerings are expected to begin in the second half of 2024, supported by internally-developed 800-volt battery packs that are expected to launch around the same time. This continues to underscore NIO's strengths in maximizing returns on its investments in building out a vertically integrated business model. We view the internalized production of 800-volt battery packs, which offer better range and faster charge times, as a positive development in reducing reliance from its sole third-party battery supplier CATL amid the increasingly constrained raw material supply chain, while also aiding better cost controls to sustain continued auto margin expansion over the longer-term. In addition to the highly-anticipated sub-brand that NIO first introduced and confirmed in August 2021, there have also recently been reports circulating about NIO's plans on expanding further with a second sub-brand priced in the RMB 100,000 ($15,000) range to better compete against SAIC-GM-Wuling, the best-selling EV brand in China with its low-priced offerings like the "Hongguang Mini" (approx. $5,000) and the newest "Baojun KiWi" (approx. $11,000). Although this development has yet to be confirmed by NIO management, the materialization of the two sub-brands is expected to improve NIO's overall appeal to the mass market and support its ongoing efforts in penetrating opportunities within China's smaller tier 3 and tier 4 cities like Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, which are "generally sensitive to monetary attributes". Key Focus Areas Weighing on NIO Stock's Valuations NIO's presence in the SEC's rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors are currently non-compliant with PCAOB inspection requests remains the biggest overhang on the stock's valuation from the "multiple" perspective. While we have previously pointed to NIO's partial state-ownership (approx. 8%) as a potential shield against ongoing regulatory woes at home experienced by data-heavy tech companies over the past year, the exact same structure might now backfire. The recent slew of voluntary delisting from U.S. exchanges observed across "China's state-owned enterprises" are sounding the alarm for a similar fate for NIO, given the partial stake owned by a consortium of municipal government agencies. As mentioned in the earlier section, national security concerns remain the biggest reason in China's pushback against U.S.-mandated PCAOB audit inspections. With NIO being a massive source of data on personal travel patterns across the domestic population, along with a meaningful organizational structural link to state-backed agencies, it could be caught in the ongoing regulatory tug-of-war between the CSRC and U.S. SEC, which remains the primary drag in its valuation discount to peers in the U.S. EV market. Specifically, many foreign investors have already abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months as they remain on the sidelines due to mounting regulatory risks, causing the valuation multiples on Chinese equities to lose their lustre compared to their American counterparts. While NIO's "homecoming" listing in Hong Kong and additional listing in Singapore provides partial insulation against delisting risks by offering shareholders from its primary U.S. listing with an option to convert their ADRs for equivalents in the Asian exchanges in the unlikely event of its exit from the NYSE, it will be at a less attractive valuation. This represents another reason why NIO continues to trade at a discounted valuation multiple to its American peers despite having a "back-up plan" against U.S. delisting risks. The Asian exchanges are known for their "less active and liquid markets" compared to American exchanges - in Hong Kong, turnover in dual-listed stocks is merely half of volumes observed on the American exchanges, with risks of further declines as "some institutional investors will not trade these stocks anymore" if the primary U.S. listing is eliminated. Final Thoughts Based on the foregoing analysis, it is clear as day that regulatory risks remain the largest overhang on the NIO stock, as it continues to make favourable progress from a fundamental perspective both in terms of ramping up volumes, as well as growing market share. Any positive development to ongoing HFCAA negotiations between the U.S. and Chinese regulators, or related efforts by NIO management on resolving the issue, will be catalytic in lifting the NIO stock from its range-bound trading with renewed valuation upsides that can match those of its American peers that exhibit similar fundamental growth profiles. While we remain optimistic on further upsides on the NIO stock at current levels, with the near-term price target set at $27 given its resilient business growth prospects, it will ultimately depend on the complete removal of the regulatory risk overhang to restore NIO's credibility as a viable high growth investment. For now, we continue to caution heightened delisting risks for NIO given its organizational structure's link to state-backed entities, in addition to broad-based market concerns on the near-term domestic economic slowdown in China, which could introduce further volatility to the NIO stock.