To The Moon

This is a nuanced setup. A simple “buy the dip” answer would be too blunt. 1. What ASML is really signalling ASML Holding is showing a sharp demand rotation, not outright weakness: Memory jump (30% → 51%) aligns with AI-driven HBM/NAND capex Logic decline reflects timing and lumpiness, not structural collapse The soft Q2 outlook matters because ASML sits upstream. When they guide cautiously, it usually reflects: Order timing delays Export control friction (especially China exposure) Visibility gaps, not necessarily demand destruction 2. “Drop then rebound” pattern That pattern exists, but it works best when: Weakness is clearly temporary End-demand remains intact Right now, the memory surge actually supports the AI thesis, but export controls introduce a real overhang. This is not a clean

The semiconductor world is on fire this week with $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ and $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ both reporting in what traders are calling “Semi Super Week,” and the stakes couldn’t be higher. TSMC is expected to smash records on Thursday with Q1 revenue topping TWD 1.13 trillion (roughly $35.6 billion) for the first time ever and net profit surging 50% year-over-year to TWD 542.6 billion (about $17.1 billion) — marking its ninth straight quarter of profit growth on the back of explosive AI demand. Meanwhile, ASML reports earlier today, and the latest supply-chain intel shows Samsung Electronics dropping a massive $4 billion order for around 20 EUV lithography machines for its Pyeon

Wow how coool is this I love it so much 

This is a nuanced setup. A simple “buy the dip” answer would be too blunt. 1. What ASML is really signalling ASML Holding is showing a sharp demand rotation, not outright weakness: Memory jump (30% → 51%) aligns with AI-driven HBM/NAND capex Logic decline reflects timing and lumpiness, not structural collapse The soft Q2 outlook matters because ASML sits upstream. When they guide cautiously, it usually reflects: Order timing delays Export control friction (especially China exposure) Visibility gaps, not necessarily demand destruction 2. “Drop then rebound” pattern That pattern exists, but it works best when: Weakness is clearly temporary End-demand remains intact Right now, the memory surge actually supports the AI thesis, but export controls introduce a real overhang. This is not a clean

The semiconductor world is on fire this week with $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ and $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ both reporting in what traders are calling “Semi Super Week,” and the stakes couldn’t be higher. TSMC is expected to smash records on Thursday with Q1 revenue topping TWD 1.13 trillion (roughly $35.6 billion) for the first time ever and net profit surging 50% year-over-year to TWD 542.6 billion (about $17.1 billion) — marking its ninth straight quarter of profit growth on the back of explosive AI demand. Meanwhile, ASML reports earlier today, and the latest supply-chain intel shows Samsung Electronics dropping a massive $4 billion order for around 20 EUV lithography machines for its Pyeon

Wow how coool is this I love it so much