Following the US-Israeli operation that eliminated a key Iranian figure, the original playbook was to install a pro-American leader within Iran — an approach designed to serve US interests while minimizing the impact on financial markets. Venezuela served as a successful example of this strategy. However, over the past week, it has become clear that the Iran situation has not unfolded according to Washington's script. The new Iranian leadership is likely to remain non-pro-American, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz places Trump in a critically vulnerable position. If oil prices fail to retreat quickly ahead of the approaching midterm elections, the Republican Party could lose congressional seats, effectively crippling Trump's ability to govern in the second half of his term. Given t
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Futures Classroom:Gold & Silver Tumbled: What’s the Next Trade?
Good evening, everyone. I’ve organized the key takeaways from the March 19 session into a written recap that can be read directly, so anyone who missed the livestream can catch up and review the discussion.You can follow along with my class notes to see how Mr. Gan analyzed the market.Mr. Gan focused on the crude oil market, related financial instruments, and trading strategy. He discussed the impact of the Iran nuclear talks and the Strait of Hormuz blockade on oil prices, while also looking at the trading opportunities and broader market trends created by higher oil prices. The main points are as follows:Course Review ：Gold & Silver Tumbled: W
Futures Classroom:Gold & Silver Tumbled: What’s the Next Trade?
Where’s the Smart Money Going? CFTC and Flow Show Just Gave Us Clues
Futures traders, come on over. Today we’re continuing our look at the COT data released by the CFTC.In previous sessions, I also added some off-exchange flow data for context, such as ETF fund-flow data. Today, we’re not just covering the CFTC numbers; we’ll also go through The Flow Show data.Before we begin, let’s clarify two concepts: what exactly are the CFTC data and The Flow Show?In commodity futures research, exchange-traded activity can be understood as trading standardized futures contracts. The exchange sets the rules, including contract size, quality specifications, delivery month, and delivery location, and the clearinghouse handles centralized clearing. ETFs, which most people are familiar with, are also exchange-traded instruments, so they belong to the on-exchange market rath
Where’s the Smart Money Going? CFTC and Flow Show Just Gave Us Clues
CFTC Update: Big Money Is Chasing Soybeans, Copper, and Crude
If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on. So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data. Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti
CFTC Update: Big Money Is Chasing Soybeans, Copper, and Crude
Crude May Break $100, but the Risk of a Sharp Reversal Is Rising
Crude May Break $100, but the Risk of a Sharp Reversal Is Rising