Following the US-Israeli operation that eliminated a key Iranian figure, the original playbook was to install a pro-American leader within Iran — an approach designed to serve US interests while minimizing the impact on financial markets.
Venezuela served as a successful example of this strategy. However, over the past week, it has become clear that the Iran situation has not unfolded according to Washington's script. The new Iranian leadership is likely to remain non-pro-American, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz places Trump in a critically vulnerable position.
If oil prices fail to retreat quickly ahead of the approaching midterm elections, the Republican Party could lose congressional seats, effectively crippling Trump's ability to govern in the second half of his term. Given the current situation, the reopening of the Strait still appears some time away, and financial markets have already begun pricing in the risk of economic stagflation.
$标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2603(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2603(MESmain)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2603(YMmain)$ $微型道琼斯指数主连 2603(MYMmain)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $微型道琼斯指数2603(MYM2603)$ $道琼斯指数2603(YM2603)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2603(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2603(MNQmain)$
Commodities Under Stagflation
Simply put, stagflation refers to a state where the economy stagnates while inflation rises — GDP growth remains sluggish while inflation accelerates rapidly. Stagflation differs meaningfully from ordinary inflation: because the economy is not growing, commodities with high economic sensitivity — such as metals and equity indices — do not necessarily appreciate in price, as the inflationary pressure is difficult to pass through to downstream consumers.
On the other hand, essential commodities with inelastic demand — such as agricultural products and energy — tend to see relatively pronounced price increases. This explains why energy and agricultural commodities outperformed noticeably last week, while metals showed almost no reaction. Accordingly, those looking to trade the stagflation theme in the near term should focus their attention on energy and agricultural products.
$美国原油ETF(USO)$ $WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2604(QMmain)$ $两倍做多彭博天然气ETF-ProShares(BOIL)$ $First Trust Natural Gas ETF(FCG)$ $天然气主连 2604(NGmain)$
$大豆ETF(SOYB.UK)$ $微型大豆主连 2605(MZSmain)$ $小大豆主连 2605(XKmain)$ $大豆主连 2605(ZSmain)$ $小麦主连 2605(ZWmain)$
That said, while the above reflects the prevailing market view, I would advise approaching it with a speculative mindset, for the strait blockade is unlikely to persist indefinitely. It is important to remember that Trump's key priority this year is navigating the midterm elections, and one of his stated objectives is to maintain low oil prices and low inflation.
A sharp spike in oil prices will almost certainly prompt countermeasures in the not-too-distant future — whether through TACO, negotiations, or a diplomatic settlement. When that happens, what went up will come straight back down. This kind of volatility is a playground for short-term speculators, but it is genuinely treacherous territory for medium- to long-term investors.
Under the current speculative momentum, breaking above $100 is far from difficult — it could happen within the next two to three weeks — but sustaining that level over the long term is another matter entirely. The situation bears a close resemblance to the Gulf War of 1990: over roughly six months, oil prices doubled from their lows before giving back every single gain and returning to where they started. Investors must therefore develop a clear understanding of the underlying logic and rhythm driving this market, or risk chasing the top and ending up deeply trapped.
Strategy
On the strategy front, last Monday's post clearly communicated to readers that going long below $70 was the right move when the strait closure was first announced. Fortunately, that day played out well — oil opened higher, pulled back below $70, and the long entry was successfully executed. For those already holding long positions, continue to hold.
We anticipate a relatively swift pullback somewhere in the $85–$90 range; however, this would constitute a correction, not a reversal. As long as European and American vessels remain unable to transit the Strait, long opportunities continue to exist — use the 20-day moving average as your stop-loss level. Above all, resist the urge to rush into shorting crude oil at this stage
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