If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on.
So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data.
Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entities. Non-commercial positions are the speculative positions held by participants such as asset managers. Non-reportable positions are those of smaller speculators.
The table below explains some of the basic terms, and it may be worth saving for reference.
if you had to look at just one CFTC data point, what should it be? The answer is non-commercial positions. That’s because they reflect the positioning of asset managers, hedge funds, and other “Wall Street” players. These large institutions are often the ones driving market trends. They can position early, and they can also manage risk before trouble arrives. So non-commercial positioning is one of the most useful sections to watch.
The latest CFTC release came out on Saturday, March 7, Beijing time. But because institutions need time to compile the data, the report only reflects positions through Tuesday. In other words, the detailed statistics we are looking at today are actually from last Tuesday and earlier. The data may be a bit old, but if we analyze it together with price action, it can still help us form a broad view of where the market may be headed, instead of constantly trading on short-term speculation and emotion.
Just like in the last report, let’s begin with the percentile indicator for total open interest.
This shows how interested the market is in each product. The higher the number, the “hotter” the contract is. That said, it does not tell you the direction of price. It only tells you which products may be attracting enough attention to generate a meaningful move. From the chart, we can see that soybean oil and soybeans are currently drawing the most interest. By contrast, WTI crude oil and precious metals rank relatively low, which suggests that market interest in them is not actually as high as many people might assume. $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $WTI原油2604(CL2604)$ $小原油主连 2604(QMmain)$ $豆油主连 2605(ZLmain)$
Commercial net position ratio tracking
The commercial net position ratio reflects the proportion of net long positions held by producers and merchants. Under normal circumstances, this figure is negative, because producers usually hedge spot exposure by shorting futures, so their short positions tend to exceed their longs. When this number turns positive, it means producers are net buyers, which often signals that prices may be bottoming, because the people who understand the industry best are starting to turn bullish.
From the chart, we can see that WTI crude oil has a commercial net position ratio of +6.66%, and not only has it stayed positive, it has also been rising recently. That is highly unusual relative to other contracts. In practice, however, this indicator tends to remain positive for WTI over long periods, so its signal value is limited. It should not be read as a simple bullish sign without looking at other factors as well. $小原油主连 2604(QMmain)$
All the other products are in negative territory, which means producers are still net short overall for hedging purposes. The most notable precious metals contracts are COMEX gold at -3.72% and COMEX silver at -9.69%. Both are negative, but the magnitude is not extreme, which suggests that precious metals producers are under some hedging pressure, though not yet at historical extremes. $黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ $铂金主连 2604(PLmain)$ $白银主连 2605(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2605(QImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$
In agriculture, CBOT corn is at -16.53%, soybean oil at -17.40%, and soybeans at -22.53%. This shows that agricultural producers are fairly willing to hedge, especially in soybeans and soybean oil, which may suggest that farmers are reasonably satisfied with current prices and are actively locking in profits.
The most extreme readings are CBOT soybean meal at -32.05% and COMEX copper at -34.81%. These two show the largest absolute values, which means producers in soybean meal and copper are hedging the most aggressively on the short side.
Non-commercial net position ratio tracking
Based on non-commercial positioning, the contracts that currently deserve the closest attention are copper, the soy complex, crude oil, and gold.
Copper ranks first, which means big money has recently been most active in trading copper. As a result, copper prices often move fast in both directions, and volatility tends to be high.
Crude oil and gold also rank relatively high. Crude is highly sensitive to headlines such as ceasefires, production cuts, and geopolitical conflict, while gold is more influenced by safe-haven demand, the U.S. dollar, and interest rates. That is why these two markets consistently attract capital.
In agriculture, the clearest story is that the whole soy complex is hot. Soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal all rank near the top, which tells us that capital is not focused on just one contract. It is trading around the entire soy complex as a theme.
Non-commercial COT indicator tracking
First, let’s explain what the “non-commercial COT indicator” actually means. In simple terms, it measures how bullish or bearish big money is right now. Here, “non-commercial” mainly refers to funds, asset managers, and speculative institutions, so this indicator is useful for gauging how hot market sentiment really is.
What we can see is that market sentiment is quite clearly divided, and this is especially obvious in agricultural products. Soybean oil and soybeans are currently the two hottest contracts. Soybean oil is already getting close to the point where “everyone is chasing it,” and soybeans are not far behind.
Crude oil, soybean meal, and copper are also fairly strong, but they have not yet reached the most crowded and vulnerable stage. In simple terms, these contracts do have bullish participation, but sentiment is not yet at an extreme.
So the key takeaway from this dataset is actually very simple: the most crowded long positions in the market right now are mainly in the soy complex, especially soybean oil and soybeans.
I also put together a summary image for everyone to review. The COT mentioned here refers to the data published by the CFTC.
Next, let’s go through the commodities one by one.
COMEX Gold
Gold has also been fairly strong recently, and prices remain resilient. $黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2604(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2604(1OZmain)$
However, compared with the soy complex and copper, gold is not nearly as “hot,” and capital has not piled in on a one-sided basis.
That suggests this rally in gold is not simply the result of momentum chasing. It looks more like a move supported by a combination of safe-haven demand, asset-allocation flows, and changes in interest rates. That usually makes the trend steadier, even if it may not be the most explosive one in the short term.
COMEX Silver
Silver has also turned stronger recently, and both price and positioning have improved.
That said, in terms of overall heat, it has not yet reached an especially extreme level. $白银主连 2605(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2605(QImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$
You can think of silver as a contract that tends to strengthen alongside the precious metals complex, but with more elasticity. Capital is participating, but compared with gold, silver is usually less stable and more volatile.
COMEX Copper
Copper is the contract with the most active capital participation among this group. $COMEX铜主连 2605(HGmain)$ $微型铜主连 2605(MHGmain)$
Put simply, copper is the big-money favorite right now, which is why its moves often carry more force and can accelerate faster in both directions.
That said, while copper is clearly hot, it has not yet reached the kind of crowded level we are seeing in soybean oil. Contracts like this often still have room to continue trending, but volatility will not be small.
WTI Crude Oil
Crude oil is also one of the stronger contracts at the moment, and there is plenty of capital participating in it. $WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2604(QMmain)$ $WTI原油2604(CL2604)$
But unlike soybean oil, crude is not driven by positioning alone. Its price is also especially vulnerable to headlines. News about ceasefires, production cuts, geopolitical conflict, or shifts in supply and demand can all cause sudden sharp rallies or selloffs.
So while crude remains strong in price terms, traders need to be especially careful. It is a market that can swing violently and stop people out in both directions.
CBOT $小大豆主连 2605(XKmain)$
Soybeans are currently the second most important contract within the soy complex.
Put simply, they are not as hot as soybean oil, but they are still a very important part of the current soy trade. $大豆ETF(SOYB.UK)$ $微型大豆主连 2605(MZSmain)$
The data show that a lot of money is participating in soybeans, and the overall tone remains firm. However, unlike soybean oil, soybeans have not yet become excessively crowded. So while they are drawing plenty of attention, they have not reached the most overheated stage.
If you think of the soy complex as a team, soybean oil is the one charging ahead fastest, while soybeans are the one keeping the overall rhythm stable. In other words, soybean oil drives emotion, while soybeans are more like the core contract that determines whether the broader soy trend can continue.
So the key feature of soybeans is not that they are the most explosive, but that they are steadier and more representative of the whole soy complex. As long as soybeans remain firm, this main market theme in soy is less likely to fall apart.
CBOT Soybean Oil
Soybean oil is currently the hottest contract in the soy complex, and also the one most likely to generate large volatility. $豆油主连 2605(ZLmain)$ $豆油2603(ZL2603)$ $微型豆油主连 2605(MZLmain)$
Put simply, a lot of capital is watching soybean oil right now, and market attention is highest there.
The data show that soybean oil is already trading at a very elevated level, which means there is already a lot of bullish capital in the market. This usually means two things: first, the short-term trend may still stay strong; second, if sentiment turns later, the pullback could also come the fastest.
And this rally in soybean oil is not just about price going up. It looks more like a move that is being actively driven by large capital. In other words, soybean oil is not hot only because the fundamentals tell a good story. It is also hot because money is actually crowding into it.
Within the whole soy complex, soybean oil is usually the most elastic contract. Once the market starts trading themes like vegetable oils, biofuels, crush margins, or supply-demand changes, soybean oil is often the first to move and the first to become the main focus.
CBOT Soybean Meal
Soybean meal has not been weak recently, but its heat is clearly lower than that of soybean oil and soybeans. $豆粕主连 2605(ZMmain)$ $微型豆粕主连 2605(MZMmain)$
Put simply, capital is trading soybean meal too, but the main focus is still on soybean oil and soybeans.
From the data, soybean meal also has a decent amount of capital involved, and the overall positioning is still biased bullish. But it has not become excessively hot. Unlike soybean oil and soybeans, it does not yet feel like a market where “everyone is chasing.”
If we combine that with the standalone charts, soybean meal has been strengthening along with the soy complex, but with more back-and-forth movement and less smoothness than soybean oil or soybeans. So it makes more sense to think of soybean meal as a follower within the soy complex, rather than the core or most crowded contract.
Conclusion
The main market theme is still in the soy complex. Soybean oil is the strongest, soybeans are in the middle, and soybean meal is following behind. Copper and crude oil also remain relatively strong. One thing to keep in mind is that a high COT reading means crowded sentiment and rising risk. It does not necessarily mean an immediate reversal, but the further this goes, the more careful we need to be about a sharp increase in volatility.
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