The New Term “NACHO” and Shifting Market Expectations Recently, new buzzwords have been emerging in financial markets. Following “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out), another term—“NACHO”—has quietly gained traction among traders. “NACHO” stands for Not A Chance Hormuz Opens, implying that there is little hope for a quick resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, this reflects the market’s declining confidence in a swift reopening of the strait, leading to expectations that elevated oil prices will persist far longer than previously anticipated, thereby reigniting longer-term inflation. The emergence of this term also signals a shift in market focus—from short-term price fluctuations to a broader consideration of assets’ inflation-hedging characteristics over a longer hori

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise. There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant. I. Ca

The "Nord Stream 1" storm in Russia and Europe intensified!Gazprom (Gazprom) reported on the 25th that from 4:00 GMT on the 27th (12: 00 Beijing time on the 27th), the daily gas supply of Nord Stream 1 will be cut by half compared with the current level, that is, it will be adjusted to 20% of the full load state,Nord Stream 1 leads to Germany via the Baltic Sea and supplies Russian natural gas to many European countries. The Gazprom move has once again caused Europe to worry about the complete "cut-off" of Russian natural gas.On the 26th local time, EU member States reached a consensus on a greatly adjusted "solar terms" scheme, and agreed to reduce the use of natural gas by 15% on a voluntary basis to cope with the natural gas shortage facing the EU.According to the announcement issued by