To The Moon

Hi Tigers,

I‘m partner at Altimeter investing and partnering predominantly with software businesses.

Any of the Below SaaS companies in your focus?

Weekly updated, as of May 26th

YTD 2023, as of May 31st

If you'd like to stay in tune with valuations / trends driving public SaaS businesses please follow along! I'll also provide detailed earnings summaries. More to come-Looking forward to all of your feedback on Clouded Judgement.

Earnings Special:

1. $Snowflake(SNOW)$ quarter:

• $624M rev (+48% YoY) vs $609M consensus (2% beat)

• $623M next Q product rev guidance vs $646M consensus (4% miss)

• Dropped full year product rev guide to 34% YoY

• 151% NRR

• 39 months GM adj. CAC payback

• 66% GM - 45% FCF Margin

2. $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$

• Revenue of $290.2 million, up 37% year over year,

• Gross margin was 77.8%, above their LT range of 75% to 77% and up from 77.4% last Q.

• 114 new large customers, pay more than $100,000 per year, have 2,156 large customers, up 40% yoy

• Strong beat of non-GAAP income from operations: $19.4M (vs. $12.5M)

• Reduced full-year guidance by 4%

3. $Datadog(DDOG)$

• Revenue: $482 million +33% YoY, +3% QoQ (- outage in March $5 million impact on revenue )

• Gross profit: $388 million -> gross margin of 79% flat YoY

• Operating income: -$35 million vs +10 million YoY

• Revenue Guidance Q2: $498 million to $502 million,  +23% to 24% YoY Fiscal year 2023: $2.08 billion to $2.10 billion, +24% to 25% YoY growth

4. $MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$

• Revenue: $361M [+36% YOY] EST; $336M [7% beat] $346M 1Q'24

• Guidance EST; $352M [2% miss]

• Atlas Revenue $235M [+50% YoY]

• Guide full year 5% below estimates

• 26 Month GM ADJ CAC PAYBACK

• 75% Gross Margin

• 7% FCF Margin

5.$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ quarter:

• $693M rev (+42% YoY) vs $677M consensus (2% beat)

• $722M next Q guidance vs $720M consensus (in line)

• Raised full year guide by $34m (1%)

• $2.73B ARR - >120% DBNR

• 22 months GM adj. CAC payback

• 76% GM - 33% FCF Margin

6. $Shopify(SHOP)$

• Revenue grew 25% to 1.5bn

• GMV was up 15% to 49.6bn

• GPV of 27.5bn, up 25% YoY

• Operating loss of 193M

• Net income of 68M

• Free cash flow was 86M vs -41M last year
  

7. $ServiceNow(NOW)$

• $2,096m rev (+25% YoY) vs $2,085m consensus (1% beat)

• $2,024m subs rev (+27% YoY)

• Guided Q2 subs rev growth to 23% growth

• Beat Q1 subs rev guide by $29M. Raised FY subs rev guide by $25m

• 17 months GM adj. CAC payback

• 79% GM - 35% FCF Margin

8. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

• Sales +18% YoY

• SBC 17% of revenue (-7pp YoY)

• OCF +332% YoY (margin +18pp to 38%)

• cash flow ROIC +15% (+5pp QoQ)

• NOPAT ROIC -9% (+5 QoQ)

9. $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$

This Qtr

• EPS -$0.02 vs est. -$0.05

• Rev-$186.6M vs est. $171.63M（YoY +48%）

Fiscal year guidance

• EPS -$0.05 to -$0.07 vs est. -$0.15

• Rev-$838M-$848M vs est. $820.83M

10. $Zoom(ZM)$ quarter:

• $1,105M rev (+5% YoY) vs $1,083M consensus (2% beat)

• $1,113M next Q guidance vs $1,109M consensus

• Raised full year guide 1% - 112% net retention for enterprise (non self-serve_

• Topline ARR declined by ~$50m (estimate)

• 76% GM - 36% FCF Margin

11. $Okta Inc.(OKTA)$ quarter:

• $518M rev (+25% YoY) vs $510M consensus (2% beat)

• $534M next Q guidance vs $527M consensus (1% raise)

• Raised full year guide by $18m (1%)

• 117% NRR

• $32m net new ARR added vs $260m S&M last Q

• 73% GM - 24% FCF Margin

• Okta also raised their full year guide by 1%.

Special Comments:

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ had a more upbeat tone on their earnings call than $Okta Inc.(OKTA)$ (in relation to back half demand environment). They called out a record pipeline for Q2, and "a return to YoY growth in net new ARR in H2" Net new ARR was $174m in Q1.

This was the lowest it's been in 6 quarters. Q2 '22 is a tough comp ($218m of net new ARR added). But YoY growth in net new ARR in back half of the year implies net new ARR is >$200m in Q3 and >$220m in Q4. So more positives on potential back half acceleration from $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ .

The team called out 3 things that gave them confidence in the stronger H2:

1) Strong pipeline

2) Product momentum (particularly LogScale). Lots of consolidation trends benefiting Crowdstrike (Falcon being the platform of choice)

3) Partnership momentum (Called out Dell)

https://www.saasacademy.com/