To The Moon

Q1 Software Earnings Are… Not GoodWe’re about halfway through Q1 earnings season, and it’s not been pretty. If I had to sum up software earnings in one quote it would be the following from Yamini Rangan, the Hubspot CEO:“Switching gears to macro. After a strong finish in Q4, we saw a return to weaker demand conditions in the first quarter, similar to what we experienced in 2023. The buyer urgency that we saw in December did not carry over into Q1. Instead, we saw a return to higher scrutiny of budgets, more decision-makers getting involved and a need for more demos and proof of concepts before signing on purchase decisions. At the top of the funnel, we saw lead flows shift away from higher quality inbound and partner-sourced leads to lower quality rep source leads. This shift plus the lowe

Cloud Giants Report Q1 + Early Look at Software ResultsQ1 earnings seasons has officially kicked off! We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). Summary of results below:AWS ( $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ): $100B run rate growing 17% YoY (last Q grew 13%)Azure ( $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ): ~$76B run rate (estimate) growing 31% YoY (last Q grew 28%)Google Cloud (includes GSuite, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ ): $38B run rate growing 28% YoY (last Q grew 26%, neither are cc)Things are really starting to rebound for the major cloud providers. The most notable change in tone was Andy Jassy talking about AWS.

This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: Hyperscalers rep

$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ quarter:- $379m rev (+30% YoY) vs $373m consensus (2% beat)- $394m next Q guidance vs $393m consensus- Held full year guide constant- 115% Dollar based net retention- 40 months GM adj. CAC payback- 78% GM- 9% FCF MarginQuarterly net new ARR added belowImageYoY change in quarterly net new ARRImageStrong Q for NET, with RPO growth accelerating to 40% YoY. DBNR has stabilized at 115% https://twitter.com/jaminball/status/1786174195241787426

AWS report is out - seeing some reversal in incremental share gained from $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Azure to $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS (45% incremental share -> 41% / 30% -> 34%)Recall - AWS is the bell weather for many SW stocks. Many of them will be up tomorrow!ImageAWS crossed a $100B run rate growing 17%! Truly MASSIVE scale Quarterly YoY growth trends in below chart.ImageOne of my favorite charts - this shows the Quarterly absolute change in revenue YoY. So the most recent data point shows Q1 '24 AWS rev - Q1 '23 AWS revImageBelow is an estimate of net new ARR added over the last few quarters.ImageSome additional charts on the aggregate hyperscaler data from Q1. First, the chart below shows the YoY growth

Azure Report - Cloud Infra Looks Good! $Microsoft(MSFT)$ kicked off earnings season with a bang! For software, all eyes were on Azure - which grew 31% YoY (ahead of expectations closer to 29%). What was arguably more impressive (and a better indicator of what’s to come for the rest of infrastructure software than overall Azure growth) was the Azure growth excluding AI Services (since Azure uniquely benefits from this). I have to “swag” this a bit. Azure doesn’t disclose exact Azure quarterly revenue (they disclose growth rate in absolute terms and in constant currency), but there are good estimations. So the overall Azure quarterly revenue figure is already not entirely spot on. For Azure AI Services, they just disclose the pts of growth they saw

This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ $Zscaler Inc.(ZS)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: Azure gives positive signa

1.$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google Cloud at a ~$38B run rate growing 28% (not constant currency). Google cloud includes GCP and GSuiteQuarterly YoY growth trends in below chart.ImageBelow is an estimate of net new ARR added over the last few quartersImageYoY growth trends in net new ARR per quarterImage2. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Azure at a ~$76B run rate growing 31% constant currencyQuarterly YoY growth trends below. Also shown estimated growth ex AI services for last couple quarters (maybe they'll disclose Azure AI on the call, but it wasn't in press release) ImageOne of my favorite charts - this shows the Quarterly absolute change in revenue YoY. So the mos

News outlets reporting $Rubrik Inc.(RBRK)$ priced their IPO at $32 / share (above the initial range of $28-$31 / share. This implies roughly a ~7x NTM revenue multiple. Trading will start tomorrow morning. More details below on different multiples for the company at different pricesImagehttps://twitter.com/jaminball/status/1783253950961188888

One of my biggest takeaways from $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Llama3 announcement - data gravity is king. And access to high quality, annotated, LLM ready data will drive which companies truly utilize AI vs those who don'tAs the number of accessible, highly performant models continues to grow (both proprietary and open source), it becomes less important to ask "which model should I use or tie myself to" and more important to ask "how do I deploy / serve / train / fine tune / monitor a model on MY OWN data?"I don't think we'll see companies move data to the models. I think they'll move models to the data. It's easier - The gravity is with the data. It's not just about how you train / fine tune a model initially. It's really about how do you continu