Time To Take Advantage Of Coinbase (COIN) Bullish Upside Breakout!
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ share price went up by more than 7% on Friday (01 Dec 23), and they has also announced on 02 Dec (Saturday) that they planned to launch Polygon (MATIC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) perpetuals futures contracts on the Coinbase International Exchange and Coinbase Advanced.
The move comes as Coinbase’s international offshoot expands its crypto offerings amid the massive rise in trading volumes.
Coinbase (COIN) More Than 250% Year-To-Date Return
COIN has returned more than 250% to investors year-to-date, but I do see more potential of another at least 100% upside, because Bitcoin price is set to rally with 2 events happening, Bitcoin halving and the upcoming Bitcoin ETF approval.
My previous article on Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin Halving Event Advantage, Which ETF You Can Invest In?
With the Bitcoin halving scheduled to happen in April 2024, I would think that Coinbase is in a good position to benefit from the Bitcoin rallies that might happen before this event. In this article, I would like to share on why Coinbase share is attractive to be invested into.
Given light implied volatility and strong technical momentum in COIN, with Bitcoin crossing $40k, and the most popular (infamous with some investors who bought in at the top two years ago) cryptocurrency is crossing $40,000 as the reality is that a slew of spot Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency ETFs are poised to hit the market sometime in 2024.
Increased token trading is thought, by some, to be bullish for Coinbase (COIN) as interest renews in this historically volatile space.
COIN IV Percentile Rank
COIN implied volatility (IV) is 68.8, which is in the 15% percentile rank. This means that 15% of the time the IV was lower in the last year than the current level. The current IV (68.8) is 2.3% above its 20 day moving average (67.3) indicating implied volatility is trending higher.
COIN IV vs 20-Day HV
The current IV (68.8) in COIN is -2.6% below its 20 day HV (70.7) suggesting that options markets are predicting future volatility to trade below the most recent 20 day realized volatility.
Historically, implied volatility for COIN tended to rise the most in February with a median IV Of 100.2, while September tended to be when implied volatility declined To its lowest levels With median IV Of 60.4.
Historically, the median IV for the current month of December was 68.8 compared to the current IV of 68.8. The IV level in January following December tended to be higher, with a median IV of 85.2.
Shares touched above $130 recently, and there is a possible move up to a previous important resistance mark in the $207 to $217 range.
But do note that the $150s might pose some challenges for the bulls, but I would see that there is a consistent build up of light volume up about 30% from Friday’s price compared to high-volume detected at $115 and below.
Technical Indicators - Simple Moving Average (SMA)
COIN is well above the 50 and 200 day moving average, and this indicate that bulls are currently in control for both short term and long term.
I am looking forward to the Bitcoin halving event, which 200-day moving average might seem to be more suitable,
Technical Indicators - Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Do take a look at the RSI momentum indicator, it is firmly in the overbought region and it has been there for a while. This is a positive signal, an indication of intense demand for its shares.
As we saw that it is well above the long-term 200-day moving average, and it is rising, this show that bulls are in control.
Coinbase (COIN) Volatility Skew
The current skew indicator have given a bullish signal. Volatility skew is a measure of market implied volatility to both the upside and the downside, and the comparison of how they relate to each other.
The implied volatility skew shows the market's bias for pricing in volatility risk to the option premium of downside puts and upside calls.
The implied volatility for downside puts is decreasing relative to upside calls, then that suggests the market is pricing in more positivity to a upside move.
Summary
Based on the data I have gathered, with Bitcoin crossing $40k at time of writing, I would think Coinbase might be having a bullish upside breakout and with light volume up to $207.
There is a possible move up to a previous important resistance market in the $207 to $217 range.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think COIN would clear the $150 level which have been a challenge to the bulls?
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ has now more than doubled in price since the October 27th low and is now trading at its highest price since April 2022. Welcome to read @nerdbull1669 ‘s fundamental and technical analysis.