To The Moon

If you have been following $CME Bitcoin - main 2411(BTCmain)$ movement over the past week, we are seeing Bitcoin trying hard to reach the $100K level, but the mission seem to have failed or rather stalked.

But there have been optimism in the crypto market than it could be gearing up for a remarkable cycle as the much-awaited Bitcoin bull run is finally starting, because there is belief that there is a potential significant upsurge for the digital asset in the upcoming months.

If we looked at how Bitcoin have been trading this week, we are still seeing strong buying strength for Bitcoin, but MACD is showing bearish downside, and now Bitcoin has touched the level at $92,000 after the previous consolidation where we saw a price surge.

Now Bitcoin is above $96,000, so can we see higher inflows and lesser outflows when U.S. market came back from the Thanksgiving holiday, and could there be higher inflows over the weekend to push up the Bitcoin and help some of the crypto stocks like $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $MARA Holdings(MARA)$

Both these two stocks was up 9.94% and 7.81% on Wednesday (27 Nov).

Bitcoin On-Chain Volume Is Back Upside (Daily, 7DMA)

Though there have been much talks about the massive bull case for BTC has begun to unfold. a confluence of positive factors such as increasing adoption and microeconomics conditions that will send BTC to unprecedented heights triggered by the upcoming United States presidential election outcome have been considered.

But I have been following the Bitcoin’s on-chain volume, as you would notice that Bitcoin traded lower towards $92,000 when there is a drop, but we saw the upside came back as we saw on-chain volume came back, now Bitcoin is above $96,000.

So if the volume continue, and miners stop taking profits, then we might see Bitcoin reaching for $100,000 maybe this weekend?

Some Miners Are Taking Profits, but Bitcoin’s Upside Potential Remains Strong

As we already know miners are the backbone of the Bitcoin network. Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a halving event, reducing the mining rewards by half. In preparation, miners tend to realize profits by selling Bitcoin to maintain profitability and gear up for the next cycle.

Following each halving, miners may temporarily shut down some mining operations and sell Bitcoin holdings to secure operating funds. When Bitcoin begins setting new all-time highs, they gradually increase sales, positioning themselves for the next downtrend.

The Miner Position Index (MPI) allows us to track these movements. MPI measures the amount of Bitcoin flowing out of miners’ wallets relative to the annual average. A high MPI indicates that miners are withdrawing more Bitcoin than usual. When MPI spikes to extreme levels, forming a peak on the graph, it often signals that Bitcoin’s price may be approaching a cycle top.

Recently, after forming a bottom, MPI has shown a slight increase as Bitcoin reached new all-time highs.

If we looked at it over 30-day moving average gives clearer cycle signals. the red circles highlight profit-taking ahead of the halving, which was typically followed by a period of consolidation before a steep price rise.

The yellow circles represent profit-taking by miners near the end of a Bitcoin cycle, which was followed by price increases that eventually led into a prolonged downtrend.

Therefore, while the current miner selling may be early positioning for the next cycle, the volume of Bitcoin being sold suggests there is still ample room for further growth in this cycle.

Bitcoin Hashrate Reaching New Highs

Adding to this, the hashrate and mining difficulty are reaching new highs, showing strong mining participation.

If we looked at the Bitcoin miner revenue, the transaction fees is reducing and this further supports the case for significant upside potential in Bitcoin’s price.

Why Marathon Digital Stocks Is Back Up?

Though we are seeing MARA drop below $20 when Bitcoin price experienced some volatility, this could be due to miner taking profits as well, but the main reason is there is some investors who decide to went short on this stock.

If you looked at the chart below, we can see that there is a short period of selling strength around 19 Nov 2024, there is some sell-off while investors take profit, but the buying strength have picked up since.

Strangely that was the same time when we saw a bullish MACD crossover formed, so I would think that that is more of an opportunity to get into this stock.

Summary

I still believe that there is much upside from Bitcoin and the crypto currency, I have my holdings on Bitcoin but I am still tracking and holding onto some of the crypto stocks in my overall investment portfolio.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think MARA would continue to benefit as Bitcoin would take off soon?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.