The US dollar experienced a rebound last week, prompting us to temporarily exit our previous long positions in the Euro. However, the fundamental factors underlying the dollar have not undergone any substantial changes. Therefore, we expect the magnitude and momentum of this rebound to be limited. We will closely monitor developments this week; if price action is favorable, we may once again seek suitable non-US currencies to go long. Analyzing the weekly chart of the dollar over the past few weeks reveals signs of a pause in its downward trend. Furthermore, last week's weekly closing price returned above a crucial new long-term trendline, indicating that range-bound consolidation and volatility are likely to unfold in the near term. As long as there is no bearish engulfing pattern this we

Since the crash last October, the weakness in crypto has not eased. With ETH breaking below 2,000 last week and BTC approaching the 60,000 level, the crypto complex has essentially been abandoned by the market. This also means its value as a leading indicator is no longer valid. After last week’s wide-range swings, precious metals are expected to enter a period of back-and-forth between bulls and bears.​ Using Bitcoin as the reference point, price broke below two key levels in a relatively short time: 100,000 and 80,000/75,000. The market’s rebound attempts have been feeble and did not even reach 100,000. Price has now fallen back to the lows from before Trump was elected; if this zone also breaks, there is basically open space below. This area also marks where many ETFs initially built po

U.S. November employment data released on Tuesday showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6%. While still relatively low by historical standards, it marks the highest level since early 2021. Data from the University of Michigan indicate that as of November, most consumers expect unemployment to continue rising over the next year.According to Morgan Stanley, if this week’s U.S. labor data show moderate softness, it could increase the probability of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would be supportive for equities. “We are firmly back in the ‘good news is bad news, bad news is good news’ regime,” Wilson wrote in a note. He explained that while a strong labor market is positive for the economy, it reduces the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026.Against the backdrop of softer