To The Moon

$Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.(OLLI)$ The company reported Q3 FY2024 results after the bell on December 10th, and while performance was generally in line with expectations, the challenging economic environment left revenues slightly below market expectations, but the good news is that operational efficiencies improved andmargins exceeded market expectations and investor sentiment was upbeat, surging 13% in December 10 trading.Shares are near all-time highs.

This quarter, the market has been very divergent in its approach to the superstore category, consistently favoring headline outperformers such as $Walmart (WMT)$, which has also allowed it to reach record highs in a row, but also punishing $Target (TGT)$, which has declined less than expected, hard.Meanwhile, discount stores and low-priced supermarkets have been doing very well due to the downgrading of spending by lower and middle income groups.

Financial Data and Market Expectations

Revenue reached $517.4 million, up 7.8% year-over-year, but slightly below market expectations of $515.5 million.

Gross profit of $214.459 million was up 10.5 percent year-over-year;

Operating profit of $44.5 million, up 14% year-over-year

Strong performance on the profitability front with EPS of $0.58, exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.57

Ended the quarter with a $303.9 million cash position and $264 million in short-term investments

Ollie's opened 24 new stores in the third quarter, bringing the total store count to 546, an 8.1% year-over-year increase.While new store openings drove sales growth, comparable store sales declined 0.5%, indicating continued challenges in maintaining same-store performance.Overall, the Company adopted an aggressive strategy in new store expansion and product offerings to address market competition.

Earnings Outlook

Fiscal fourth quarter sales of $2.27 billion to $2.28 billion (midpoint $2.275 billion) versus the market's general estimate of $2.28 billion; earnings per share of $3.22 to $3.30 (midpoint $3.26) versus the market's general estimate of $3.27.

Analysis of the reasons for the performance variance

The variance between Ollie's results and market expectations stemmed primarily from several factors:

1. Comparable store sales decline: Comparable store sales declined 0.5%, reflecting uncertainty in consumer demand and increased competitive pressures, as well as cautious consumer spending due to changes in the economic environment, although the price advantage of discount stores over other large, integrated superstores remained.

2. Cost Control and Gross Profit Margin Improvement: Despite sales falling short of expectations, the Company improved its gross profit margin through effective cost control measures, resulting in growth in operating income and net profit.Gross margin improved from 40.4% to 41.4

3. Strategic Store Expansion: The Company's success in opening new stores in the third quarter and acquiring a number of stores that were sold due to bankruptcy sets the stage for future growth.This expansion strategy, while increasing costs in the short term, will help increase market share and brand presence in the long run

Although revenues were slightly below expectations, investors recognized the company's strategic initiatives, particularly its efforts in new store openings and product offerings.The Company is well positioned for competitiveness and value in the current economic environment Future Outlook

Looking forward, Ollie's plans to continue to expand its store network and expects comparable store sales to improve in the fourth quarter as a result of adjustments to its marketing program.The Company will also continue to optimize its product portfolio to meet consumer demand and enhance the customer experience.Moreover, Ollie's is expected to benefit from its value-centric business model as the market environment gradually stabilizes.

To summarize, Ollie's demonstrated strong profitability and an aggressive expansion strategy in 3Q2024, and despite facing declining comparable store sales, the company's long-term growth potential remains worthy of investor attention.