March 28 is the last trading day of Q1 this year. According to a recent research report from $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ , it is estimated that $32 billion worth of stock assets will be sold off, mainly from pension funds. The sell-off in the U.S. stock market on the afternoon of March 26 is related to this. It is important to note that quarterly rebalancing is different from the 'index rebalancing' familiar to individual stock investors. Index rebalancing often does not occur on the final day of the quarter. For example, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebalances at the close of the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Quarterly rebalancing generally refers to rebalancing asset portfolios (asset classes) and
AI frenzy at the beginning of the year put chip stocks in the limelight. Despite the high stock price, the options trading volume for $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ remains high, even surpassing $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ By the middle to late March, investors slowly adapt to the current trend, and the volatility of chip stocks has also decreased significantly. NVDA's current IV Rank (a percentage of the high and low IV points in the past 52 weeks) remains at 42%, while other AI stocks have all retreated below the 50th percentile. Relatively stable are $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ On the other hand, Tesla (TSLA),
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Apple needs a second chance, with all in AI
Big-Tech’s PerformanceThe FOMC meeting essentially guided the market sentiment this week, cautious market expectations often bring surprises. After the Fed reaffirmed that the interest rate for this round of cycle has reached its peak and confirmed the start of rate cuts this year, tech stocks and growth stocks also reached new highs.As of the close on March 21, among the big tech companies over the past week, the best performer was $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ +1.18%, followed by $Microsoft(MSFT)$ +0.97%, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ +44%, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ +0%, while the other three fell, with
Tencent's Mixed Q4 Earning: Domestic Game Down While Ads Up
At the close of the Hong Kong stock market on March 20th, $TENCENT(00700)$ released its financial report for Q4 and the full year of 2024. Investment HighlightsIncome slightly below expectations, with the gaming business lagging behind and the monetization of video acts growing. Particularly, domestic games are underperforming, with older games showing relatively better performance, but inevitably entering a downward cycle, while new games are below expectations and are at a disadvantage compared to similar competitors. Overseas game growth remains steady and serves as a strong support. Additionally, with the help of AI, advertising further improves efficiency, and the rise in video acts also boosts the benefits of the WeChat ecosystem. Furthermo
Recently $Apple(AAPL)$ and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ are both in trouble, for their lagging behind being investors' doubts about their AI development. For Apple, both main pillars are facing a crisis: 1. The flagship product iPhone is just hitting a "slump" year, with a "price drop" and "speed drop" in the Greater China region, and even facing lawsuits from investors; 2. Apple store is cutting fees and still facing controversy.For Google, it is uncertain whether AI will become its "spear" or "shield": 1. Although Gemini is continuously iterating, it still has a gap of approximately half a year compared to OpenAI; 2. AI robots are to some extent replacing browser searches, bringing uncertainty to the advertising
In the history, the Bank of Japan has often been ambiguous in its attitude towards policy shifts, allowing the market to digest expectations on its own but without providing a clear timetable. Policy shifts are often "unexpected yet reasonable." $Japanese Yen - Mar 2024(JPY2403)$$Japanese Yen - main 2406(JPYmain)$$iShares MSCI Japan ETF(EWJ)$ The long-term loose policy has led to the monetization of the fiscal deficit, distortion of government bond prices, and depreciation of the yen. In recent years, as the growth momentum of the Japanese economy gradually recovers and inflation levels warm up, the subjective and objective conditions for the Bank of J
Big-Tech’s PerformanceThe trading on Quadruple Witching Day is often particularly intense. This is the day when four financial derivatives of U.S. stocks— "stock index futures, stock index options, individual stock futures, and individual stock options"— all expire at once each quarter. Investors are eager to close their positions on this day, often leading to a sharp increase in market trading volume and greater volatility. Since Nvidia option trades account for 1/4 of the single-ticket option market, Nvidia option trading will be a focal point.Statistics of the trading on Quadruple Witching Day in the past 30 years show that the probability of a rise in the week of March is slightly higher, but the probability of a rise in the following week is the lowest. Although the average return for
Quadruple witching day refers to the expiration settlement day of derivative financial products in the US stock market on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December each year. 四巫The last trading hour of the day is called the Quadruple witching hour, from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. New York time. There are four types of products for expiration settlement, hence called Quadruple witching day: stock index futures $SP500 index 2403 (ES2403)$, stock index options, stock options, and individual stock futures. Individual stock futures trading in the US market started on November 8, 2002, before that it was referred to as Triple witching day or Triple witching hour. The main impact of Quadruple witching day is a significant increase in trading volum
$Kanzhun Limited(BZ)$ skyrocketed by 20% in a day, in addition to the performance exceeding expectations, the company's announcement of repurchase is also an important reason. The purpose of stock repurchase by listed companies is usually to manage market value, provide equity incentives, stabilize stock prices, and enhance EPS and ROE, etc. Stock repurchases in the US stock market are important factors supporting the market. Although enterprise repurchase activities fell sharply in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the total repurchase amount of US stocks reached $1.025 trillion in 2023. $Apple(AAPL)$ as a model of repurchase and dividend in the capital market, distributed a total of $132 bill
What risk assets will benefit from outflows of Chips mania??
Market's concentration began to disperse and be redistributed to other risky sectors.Last Friday, chip stocks started to rise and fall, continuing until Monday, causing the market's risk sentiment to become mixed. There is a rotation between sectors, with funds starting to flow into safe-haven sectors. There are also differences among technology stocks, as star chip stocks with high gains in recent weeks have begun to pull back, including companies like $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , and $Micron Technology(MU)$ but companies that previously declined, even if they are AI concepts, have also seen rebounds, such as