To The Moon

July 18, 2025, is a high-stakes showdown for investors, with the final votes on “Crypto Week” legislation, blockbuster Q2 earnings from Netflix and TSMC, and June retail sales data igniting the markets. The S&P 500’s steady hold at 6,263.26 and the Nasdaq’s record highs at 20,630 reflect bullish sentiment, but the VIX at 15.94 signals volatility as tariff tensions and geopolitical risks loom. From streaming giants to chip leaders and crypto powerhouses, today offers explosive opportunities for traders and investors. This report highlights the day’s key catalysts, top stocks to watch, and strategic trading approaches to seize the moment while managing risks.

Market Catalysts: What’s Driving the Action

“Crypto Week” Final Votes

The U.S. House’s “Crypto Week” (July 14-18) culminates today with final votes on three transformative bills:

• GENIUS Act: Passed the Senate in June 2025, it mandates 1:1 cash backing for stablecoins, federal registration, and anti-money laundering measures. A 95% passage chance, per Polymarket, could boost stablecoin stocks like Circle (CRCL).

• CLARITY Act: Defines digital assets as securities or commodities, potentially placing Bitcoin under CFTC oversight, reducing regulatory uncertainty.

• CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act: Prohibits a Federal Reserve digital currency, supporting decentralized crypto like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Positive outcomes could drive $200 billion in institutional inflows by 2026, per JPMorgan, lifting crypto stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR). Delays or stricter amendments might trigger a 5-10% crypto market pullback.

Q2 Earnings Season

Today’s earnings from Netflix (NFLX) and TSMC (TSM) are critical:

• Netflix: Expected to report $7.06 EPS and $11 billion in revenue, up 15% year-over-year, driven by ad-tier growth and price hikes. A beat could push NFLX to $700; a miss might test $600.

• TSMC: Reported a Q2 beat with $20.8 billion in revenue (up 39% YoY) and $2.37 EPS, with Q3 guidance of $31.8-$33 billion. Its AI chip dominance could lift the semiconductor sector.

Earlier in the week, banks like JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported, with JPM expecting $4.47 EPS (up 15% YoY) and C forecasting $1.39 EPS (up 12% YoY). Their results could influence financials today.

Economic Data Releases

• June Retail Sales (July 17): Released yesterday, retail sales data reflects consumer spending strength. Strong numbers could lift consumer stocks like Delta Air Lines (DAL); weak data might pressure them, with effects lingering into July 18.

• June CPI (July 15): Reported at 2.33%, the lowest since January 2019, boosting rate-cut odds to 70% for September, per futures markets. This supports growth stocks like NVDA and MSFT.

• Federal Reserve Beige Book (July 16): Provided insights into economic conditions, potentially shaping Fed policy expectations and impacting market sentiment today.

Tariff and Geopolitical Risks

Trump’s tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada, effective August 1) have softened, with the White House signaling flexibility. Deal progress could lift tech (NVDA, MSFT) and consumer stocks (DAL); failures might trigger a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback to 5,800-6,000. The Israel-Iran conflict, with oil at $75 per barrel, supports energy stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) but pressures consumer sectors.

Social media sentiment on X is bullish, with users hyping Netflix’s ad-tier potential, TSMC’s AI dominance, and crypto bill outcomes, but tariff fears spark warnings of a “market correction.”

Stocks to Watch: July 18, 2025

Here’s a curated list of stocks poised for action today, driven by earnings, crypto legislation, and sector trends:

• Netflix ( $Netflix(NFLX)$ ): Up 40% YTD to $1,275, with Q2 earnings expected to show $7.06 EPS and $11 billion revenue. Targets $1,340 on a beat, with support at $1,200.

• TSMC ( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ): Up 55% YTD to $185.50, with Q2 revenue of $20.8 billion (up 39% YoY). Targets $200, with support at $170.

• Coinbase ( $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ): Up 171% YTD to $398.20, driven by Bitcoin’s $118K surge and Crypto Week. Targets $420, with support at $350.

• NVIDIA ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ): Up 171% YTD to $167, with China sales resumption fueling momentum. Targets $190, with support at $150.

• Delta Air Lines ( $DALATA HOTEL GP(DAL.UK)$ ): Up 5% recently to $50, with a 10% revenue growth outlook. Targets $60, with support at $45.

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Q2 earnings reported $4.47 EPS (up 15% YoY). Targets $190, with support at $175.

• Citigroup (C): Q2 EPS reported at $1.39 (up 12% YoY). Targets $70, with support at $55.

• Wells Fargo (WFC): Q2 earnings showed NII recovery, with EPS up 14% YoY. Targets $60, with support at $50.

• Microsoft (MSFT): Up 30% YTD to $475, with Q2 earnings (July 29) forecasting $65 billion revenue. Targets $550, with support at $450.

• Palantir (PLTR): Up 100% YTD to $40, with 36% Q1 revenue growth. Targets $45, with support at $35.

Key News and Highlights

“Crypto Week” Final Votes

The final votes on the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act today could reshape the $4 trillion crypto market. Passage could drive Bitcoin to $135,000-$150,000 and COIN to $420, per Bitwise. Delays might trigger a 5-10% pullback, with COIN testing $350.

Q2 Earnings Impact

• Netflix (July 17): Q2 earnings expect $7.06 EPS and $11 billion revenue, up 15% YoY, driven by ad-tier growth and price hikes. A beat could push NFLX to $1,340-$1,400; a miss might test $1,200-$1,110.

• TSMC (July 17): Reported $20.8 billion in Q2 revenue (up 39% YoY) and $2.37 EPS, with Q3 guidance of $31.8-$33 billion. A bullish outlook could lift TSM to $200 and boost peers like NVDA and AMD.

• Bank Earnings (July 15-16): JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reported strong results, with JPM’s $4.47 EPS and C’s $1.39 EPS beating estimates. Their momentum could support financials today.

Economic Data

• June Retail Sales (July 17): Strong consumer spending could lift DAL and other consumer stocks, while weak data might pressure them, with effects lingering into July 18.

• June CPI (July 15): At 2.33%, it raised rate-cut odds to 70% for September, supporting growth stocks like NVDA and MSFT.

• Beige Book (July 16): Indicated stable economic conditions, potentially reinforcing rate-cut expectations today.

Tariff and Geopolitical Context

Trump’s tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) have a softened stance, boosting hopes for deals. Progress could lift tech (NVDA, MSFT) and consumer stocks (DAL); failures might trigger a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback. The Israel-Iran conflict (oil at $75/barrel) supports XOM but pressures consumer sectors.

Trading Opportunities

Short-Term Plays

• Buy Netflix on Earnings Beat: Enter at $1,110-$1,150, target $1,340-$1,400, stop at $1,065. A 10-20% gain if Q2 earnings exceed $7.06 EPS.

• Buy TSMC on Momentum: Grab at $170-$180, target $200-$210, stop at $165. An 11-18% gain if guidance remains bullish.

• Buy Coinbase on Crypto Week: Enter at $350-$360, target $420, stop at $330. A 10-20% gain if bills pass.

• Options Straddle: Buy $1,275 calls/puts on NFLX or $185.50 calls/puts on TSM for earnings volatility.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold NVIDIA: Buy at $150-$155, target $200-$250, for 22-55% upside with AI growth.

• Hold Microsoft: Buy at $450-$460, target $550, for 15-22% upside with cloud/AI growth.

• Hold Coinbase: Buy at $350-$360, target $450-$500, for 25-39% upside with crypto adoption.

• Diversify with Tech ETF (XLK): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, for broad tech exposure.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against tariff or earnings volatility.

• SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.

• Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m cautiously bullish on Netflix and TSMC for their earnings-driven upside and Coinbase for its crypto momentum, but I’m wary of tariff and geopolitical risks. I’ll buy NFLX at $1,110-$1,150, targeting $1,340-$1,400, with a $1,065 stop, and TSM at $170-$180, targeting $200-$210, with a $165 stop. For crypto exposure, I’ll add COIN at $350-$360, targeting $420, with a $330 stop.

📢 Like, repost, and follow for daily updates on market trends and stock insights.

📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

📌@Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents @TigerWire