To The Moon

On 10 Nov 2025, AI company $BigBear.ai Holdings(BBAI)$ handed in its Q3 earnings report card.

• Revenue: came in at $33.14 million vs analysts’ estimates of $31.84 million vs Q3 2024’s $41.51 million; that’s a -20% YoY decline. Lower returns was due to lower volume on certain US military programs. (see above)

• Loss per share (GAAP): was -$0.03 vs analysts’ consensus of -$0.04 vs Q3 2024’s -$0.06; that’s a +50% YoY improvement. (see above)

• Gross margin: was 22.4% vs Q3 2024’s 25.9%; that’s a -3.5% YoY decline due to higher margin programs in Q3 2024 that were not repeated in 2025.

• Net income: was $2.5 million vs Q3 2024’s net loss of -$15.1 million.

• The “positive” small profit was mainly because of a $26.1 million non-cash gain from changes in derivative liabilities linked to the fair value of the 2029 Notes’ convertible features and warrants, partly offset by an $8 million rise in “selling, general, & administrative” (SG&A) costs.

• Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA* of -$9.4 million vs Q3 2024’s $0.9 million, was primarily driven by decreased gross margin and increase in SG&A.

• With cash balance of $456.6 million, it positions BBAI to accelerate growth.

• Backlog stood at $376 million as of 30 Sep 2025.

FY 2025 Outlook.

• BBAI continues to project full-year 2025 revenue between $125 million & $140 million.

• During its post earnings conference, BBAI CEO also announced that company has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage.

What is Ask Sage ?

It is a cutting-edge and fast-growing Generative AI platform for secure distribution of AI models and agentic AI capabilities, built specifically for defense & national security agencies and other highly-regulated sectors.

It is already supporting more than 100,000 users on 16,000 government teams and across hundreds of commercial companies.

It is a turnkey platform that’s in production today, at scale, in the environments that matter most, said BBAI, CEO - Kevin McAleenan.

Value Proposition.

Integration of Ask Sage with BBAI delivers the market-demanded secure, unified AI platform that consolidates software, data, and mission services into a single solution.

And in the process, accelerates BBAI’s growth and strengthen their position in the national security market.

The acquisition is expected to support accelerated growth in 2026 and beyond, contributing to BBAI's ability to deliver platform-level AI technologies.

Stock Movement.

As of 17 Nov 2025

• BAI has been a tear following the company's quarterly report on 10 Nov 2025, after market closing. (see above, yellow highlight)

• Better-than-expected sales, Q3 earnings and news that it is acquiring Ask Sage in a $250 million deal have powered big gains.

• Investors are betting that the Ask Sage acquisition will dramatically improve BBAI's position in generative AI and will lead to more government contracts.

• However, the recent AI-sustainability spook has taken a toll on BBAI as well.

• Over the past few days, it has fallen by -20%. Overall BBAI’s YTD is still in the green.

Technically, (see above)

As of 17 Nov 2025 closing, BBAI shows the following moving averages (ma):

• 20-day ma is around $6.42, indicating the recent short-term price trend.

• 50-day ma is about $6.66, reflecting the medium-term price trend.

• 200-day ma stands near $5.37, reflecting the long-term price trend.

BBAI’s current price of $5.57 (as of 17 Nov 2025), is:

• Temporarily below the 20-day & 50-day moving averages.

• Still trending above the 200-day moving average.

It signals bearish momentum for the short and medium term, while maintaining a bullish momentum in the long term.

BBAI’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) at approx. 41.15 shows neutral stand without being overbought or oversold, suggesting room for continued price movement without immediate reversal pressure.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

This is not the first time I have covered about BBAI, neither will it be my last.

Below are my 2 recent posts on BBAI:

• 23 Sep 2025 - BBAI Breakout with Goldman Sachs' Buy ?

• 24 Jul 2025 - BBAI : Will it re-Peak soon ?

The media has also prophesized that BBAI evolved to become a mini- $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ with all its exhibiting traits of a winning AI stock.

In a way, I am glad that my conviction about BBAI has paid of, even in the face of US market volatility. (see below)

The recent pullback since 14 Oct 2025 presents an attractive window to top up or add to one’s holdings. Agree ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Due to creative differences and bias, I will scale back my posting.

My 2,430 posts remain (for now) for those who value fundamentals as Mr Buffett had pointed — invest in businesses, not pick stocks.

To new subscribers, no flashy screens to entice blind investing. I aim to share on how to fish, not fish for you.

I’m grateful to share what I know. In the alternate moo moo universe, where I am valued & appreciated, I will still be sharing. Good luck on your i-journey.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• NVDA, TSLA Falls. Is Tech Sell Off Back ?

• Softbank & Burry Drags NVDA Down. How Long ?

• DKNG - Buy Now Before It Blastoff ?

• Do you think BBAI deserves a second look ’?

• Do you think BBAI will evolve and morph into a Palantir-type of AI apps ?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents